Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1127 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Not much change here from previous forecasts. Looks quiet. We
will still have a west wind with a large low center northeast of
the Great Lakes, but it won`t be as gusty as yesterday. Winds will
be a little stronger in central MO early once the inversion mixes
out, but in general winds will diminish this afternoon, and
certainly tonight.

Clouds will increase tonight with some moisture advection in
mid/higher levels. Used a a consensus mos blend of 3hr
temperatures as primary guidance for tonight and our fcst low
temperatures are a degree or two higher than a blend of mos
guidance lows. If the clouds are slow to develop, temperatures may
drop fairly quickly with light sfc winds. A little tricky (albeit
a very minor overall concern).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Fri-Sat: Friday will be a continuation of the quiet weather, but
with a fair amount of cloudiness. A shortwave will dig southeast
and close off over northern Mexico. Deeper moisture will try to
advect toward our area as early as late Fri night into Sat in the
sw flow aloft. With sfc high pressure moving from IA into the OH
Vly during this time, lower level dry air will fight the
northward moisture advection for a time. There will be a fair
amount of clouds and eventually some small chances for light rain
late Fri night into Sat over the southwest fringe of the cwfa.
Can`t rule out some wet snow or sleet pellets where evaporative
cooling is effective in lower freezing levels and sfc temps, but
impact is expected to be nil.

Sat night-Sunday: An approaching northern stream shortwave will
eventually draw a little more moisture northward with the best
overall weekend chances for precip expected to be Sat night/Sunday
morning. Again, can`t rule out a mix or brief change to wet snow
late Sat night/early Sunday over some of the eastern cwfa, but
overall temperatures are expected to be too warm for impacts.
Precip should clear east of the region Sunday afternoon.

Mon: The upper low is expected to finally move northeast from
northern Mexico and TX through the lower MS Vly by late Mon-Mon
night with another chance for a rain with highest chances (pops)
over the eastern cwfa.

Late Tue-Wed: There is still good large scale medium range
guidance agreement that a shortwave will dig southeast into the
western CONUS next week developing a longwave trough. This will
release the first true winter like air mass of the season south
into our neck of the woods with a strong cold frontal passage late
Tue or Wed. The ECMWF and Canadian (Wed) are slower/later versus
the GFS (Tue) in terms of the initial arrival of the fropa, but
the GFS lingers the front for a longer time over our area. The
prefrontal air mass looks like it will struggle with moisture
return (mainly low 50s for dew points with the slower ECMWF). Will
need to watch fcst trends for moisture return/tstm chances and then
possibly a change over to snow behind the front. Given the slower
progression of a wavy front as depicted by the GFS, it shows more
potential for precip farther back into the colder air.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through this cycle.
Winds will generally shift southerly overnight, but remain light.
Just a few high clouds expected.




AVIATION...Frye/Dunning is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.