Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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345
FXUS63 KSGF 140521
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1121 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Had some convective sleet showers earlier this morning and then a
area of stratus which has moved northeast across the area late
morning through the afternoon so far. The clouds have kept
temperatures in check so far in the low 40s, however some clearing
has taken place across the western portion of the CWA early this
afternoon and temperatures have increased into the upper 40s.

Showers and a few thunderstorms were developing over eastern Texas
into southwest Arkansas associated with an embedded shortwave and
warm air advection pattern within a broad area of southwest flow
aloft.

The showers and isolated thunder will be the main focus for
tonight into Wednesday mornings weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Some elevated instability develops this evening across mainly
southeast sections of the CWA. Some decent low level jet energy
over the area. The convection to the southwest of the area will
lift northeast into southeast portions of the CWA this evening and
tonight. Most of the activity will be southeast of the CWA in the
TN and OH valley.

Some gusty winds are expected on Wednesday ahead of a developing
low pressure system in the plains. The warm air advection will aid
in temperatures climbing back into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Even warmer air will move into the area ahead of a frontal
boundary on Thursday with temperatures reaching the low 70s across
the area. The front will begin to move through on Thursday evening
with a band of instability along and ahead of the front. Have
included thunderstorms for the southeast CWA late Thursday into
Thursday evening. May have a slim chance for some light snow on
the back edge of the precipitation late Thursday night into Friday
morning, but little to no accumulation is expected with no
impacts from the snow.

High pressure should shift east across the area Friday night into
Saturday, with good southerly flow returning to the area by
Sunday. By Sunday evening models are beginning to develop some
precipitation over the area ahead of a shortwave and region of
good low level warm advection. Broad south to southwest flow aloft
will then persist through the remainder of the extended period
with a more active rainy and potentially convective period through
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Stratus across the region will keep low end VFR to MVFR ceilings
in place for much of the overnight hours. Low level wind shear
will also occur as strong southwesterly winds stay up through the
night as well. Ceilings will drop to IFR area wide around sunrise
with Joplin falling as early as 08z. Ceilings will improve to VFR
by noon Wednesday with low level winds shear again impacting the
region tomorrow evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch



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