Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170544
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

A large area of snow continued to slowly shift east across the
Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. As of 3 PM, the back edge of the
snow had reached the I-44 corridor. Widespread snowfall amounts
of 1-3" have occurred, with a few reports pushing 4" across west-
central Missouri.

As we head into this evening, the snow will continue to end from
west to east across most of the Missouri Ozarks. The one
exception may be far south-central Missouri as mid and upper level
lift briefly increase across this region this evening. We will
continue to slowly trim away at the Winter Weather Advisory as
snow comes to an end, with a midnight end time looking fairly
reasonable over far south-central Missouri.

As we get into late tonight and Monday, strong cold air advection
will develop as another Arctic air mass oozes into the region.
Low temperatures tonight should have no problem falling into the
lower and middle teens over most areas. Temperatures on Monday
will then struggle to warm due to strong cold air advection and an
increase in late morning/afternoon clouds. Most areas will
struggle to warm out of the lower 20s Monday afternoon. Record low
maximum temperatures will be in jeopardy (see the Climate section
below). After early morning wind chills around zero, daytime wind
chills will likely stay in the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

High pressure will then settle south across the central and
southern Plains Monday night. Bitterly cold temperatures are
expected across our region Monday night with lows plunging into
the single digits. We have gone colder than MAV/MET guidance given
snow cover on the ground...closer to the GEM raw guidance.
Confidence is very high that record lows will be broken...and by
several degrees in some cases. Although winds will be light, wind
chills by Tuesday morning will be in the single digits below zero.

Surface winds will shift to the west and southwest on Tuesday with
low level warm air advection kicking in. This will result in
slightly warmer temperatures over western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas. Areas of central Missouri may still struggle
to warm out of the middle 20s.

After a period of brisk southwesterly winds from later Tuesday
into early Wednesday, models then bring another cold front
through the area sometime on Wednesday. This front looks dry with
the air mass behind it not as cold as what we will see early this
week. Depending on the timing of the front, temperatures on
Wednesday may actually still get into the 40s over many areas.

Long wave charts then continue to show a couple of upper level
short wave troughs moving east across the southwestern United
States and out towards the Ozarks late this week. Global models
indicate that the first wave will be rather weak and will arrive
in our region sometime Thursday night or Friday. Moisture looks
limited this far north at this time.

The second wave looks stronger and will likely have a better
fetch of Gulf moisture to work with. If models are in the ballpark
with the track of this wave, it will give us a decent shot at
precipitation next weekend. If the ECMWF is correct, we may
actually see some thunderstorms. Temperatures late next week will
remain below normal, but not nearly a cold as what we will
experience early this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. High
pressure over the Plains will shift east into the region late
in the taf period. Some moderately strong nw wind gusts will
develop during the day Monday after 15z then diminish toward
sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 845 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

Another reinforcing shot of Arctic air will arrive to begin the
work week with potential record cold maximum temperatures for
November 17th and record cold minimums for November 18th. Here
are the records for Monday and Tuesday.

City.......Record/Year

November 17th                   November 18th
Record Cold Maximums            Record Cold Minimums

Springfield...24/1959           Springfield...13/1903
Joplin........25/1959           Joplin........17/1951
West Plains...27/1959           West Plains...12/1959
Vichy/Rolla...25/1959           Vichy/Rolla....7/1903

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA
CLIMATE...Boxell/Griffin






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