Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191927

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

...Storms through this Evening then Cooler and Drier...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Convection continued to increase in coverage into this afternoon
along and north of a nearly stationary front stretching from just
south of Joplin and along the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms
were had approaching severe limits. Showers and storms had developed
well north of the surface boundary ahead of the 850 MB front.

The surface front will begin a gradual southeastward push into
the late afternoon aided by rain cooled air to the north.
Meanwhile an upper level trough coming out of the Rockies will
begin to assert it`s influence heading into late afternoon and
this evening.

Strengthening synoptic scale lift will support additional
development with increasing storm coverage into far southern
Missouri along and behind the front. Most unstable CAPE of 1000 to
3000 J/KG and deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts will support the
risk for strong to locally severe storms. Strong winds and hail
look to be the primary risk with any severe storms that develop.
Storms that develop along the front will be have to be monitored
for supercellular structure but any tornado risk appears to be
very low. Heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding
will also have to be monitored where storms train across the same


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The cold front will begin a steady push to the southeast across
the region this evening as the upper level trough swings east.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage and
linger behind the surface front. The activity will taper off from
the west later tonight as the 850 MB front pushes to the southeast
with most activity moving to our east by daybreak Thursday. A drier
and cooler airmass will overspread the region Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Seasonably cool temperatures can be expected heading into late
week as surface high pressure builds into the area and the region
comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft.

A warming trend will return this weekend into early next week as
an upper level ridge builds back across the region. Dry weather
will persist until the middle or later part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions as a cold front
moves across the area. This front will bring showers and
thunderstorms along with low ceilings. MVFR to IFR conditions
will develop behind the front through the evening. Improving
conditions will return Thursday morning.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.