Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 112346
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Autumn weather has certainly arrived across the Ozarks, with cool
and cloudy conditions prevailing throughout the day today.
Persistent post frontal stratus will continue tonight, and with
another upper level wave swinging south across the Upper Plains, low
clouds should continue through much of the day tomorrow.  The
moisture in place across the region is rather shallow, and as such
only expect a few showers during the day tomorrow.  More common will
be patchy drizzle, not unlike what occurred this (Thursday) morning.

With persistent cloud cover and cold air advection, highs tomorrow
will only warm into the mid 60s at best.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Clearing should finally commence tomorrow evening as that upper wave
moves across the western Great Lakes.  As Canadian high pressure
builds into the area tomorrow night, overnight lows should drop into
the 40s in most spots.

That high will remain in control Saturday and Sunday, bringing with
it high temperatures the better part of 20 degrees below average for
Saturday, with a warming trend for Sunday as southerly surface flow
returns.

Additional chances for showers will then overspread the region
Monday as yet another shortwave drops south across the northern
Plains.  An associated cold front will keep temperatures below
average through mid week. Temperatures may return to average by the
end of the workweek, before another strong upper wave begins to move
toward the area in time for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Low clouds will persist into Friday as a low level frontal
boundary remains draped across northern Arkansas. We are again
looking at the potential for stratus build down with MVFR ceilings
eventually being replaced with IFR late tonight. Confidence in
when the IFR will set in is still rather low. We have therefore
used TEMPO groups during the time range that the transition is
expected. Ceilings will then come back up into the MVFR category
later Friday morning. A secondary frontal boundary will bring an
increase in northerly winds later Friday with gustiness developing
late in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





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