Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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356
FXUS63 KSGF 222214
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
514 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

It was another unseasonably warm day over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed well into the 80s,
under mostly sunny skies and light winds.

It appears as though fair weather will continue through the rest
of the work week, and even into Saturday. Afternoon highs will
warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily basis.

Overnight lows will fall into the 60s, with little to no rain
chances through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

There is significant model differences with the structure, track,
and timing of the long wave trough currently centered over
Nevada.

This feature is advertised to slowly progress east, eventually
bringing a widespread band of showers and thunderstorms across the
Ozarks sometime Sunday through Tuesday.

At this time there does not appear to be a sufficient cape - shear
combination for much of a severe weather risk.

Rainfall amounts look uncertain, and will depend on which model is
accurately depicting the structure of this long wave.

One thing is for certain, cooler temperatures will return to the
region, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 513 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR will prevail and no aviation concerns the next 24 hours. Light
southerly winds around 5 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin



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