Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...Another Nice Day Today...Then An Unsettled and Stormy Week

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

There are no changes in the overall forecast today through the end
of the week. Another nice day is on the way with a small upper
level ridging over the region this afternoon. We will see sunshine
with a few passing high or mid level clouds over the southwestern
areas. High temperatures will approach 80 degrees. We will remain
dry and comfortable again tonight with lows back down into the
lower 50s out east to around 60 for western areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The first of several impulses of energy from a large upper level
trough that is developing across the Four Corners Region and the
Western U.S. will begin to affect the western areas by late Monday
morning. Models show showers and storms developing with the help
of a low level jet across Kansas into Oklahoma late Sunday night.
This area of storms will slowly move northeastward Monday morning
and bring rain chances into southeast Kansas into west central
Missouri. It appears the best chance for rain on Monday and Monday
night will be west of Highway 65. There will be a marginal risk
for a strong storm or two Monday but the better dynamics will be
west of the area.

There is still uncertainty on exact timing of these mid level
impulses affecting the region but we can expected off and on
chances for showers and storms to affect the area Tuesday through
the end of the week with the better potential for severe weather
and overall storm chances Thursday through Friday night possibly
lingering into Saturday. initially there will be an elevated cap
early to middle of the week to suppress some of the storm
potential but atmospheric ingredients and dynamics improve for
severe weather chances later in the week with all modes of severe
weather possible. Will continue to watch trends with forecast
rainfall with current thinking of 1 to 3 inches with locally
higher where storms track over same areas. Minor or localized
flooding may be possible by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Shortwave energy and a little bit of elevated instability helped
to develop a few showers/thunderstorms earlier this evening. While
the thunder has gone away, there are a few light showers remaining
with around 7000-10000 foot ceilings. Did keep a tempo of light
rain in for SGF for the first couple hours of the 06z TAF, but
everyone should remain in VFR conditions through the entire TAF
period. As we head into Sunday, shortwave will push southeast of
the area and should see a period of upper level ridging for the
remainder of the TAF forecast.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.