Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130007

707 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A rather raw day for September across the region. Widespread cloud
cover, a stiff north wind, along areas of drizzle and a few light
showers have kept temperatures in check. Highs have ranged from
the mid 50s in central Missouri to around 60 in southwest
Missouri. With additional moisture entering from the
west/southwest the rest of this afternoon, it appears we have
likely met our high temperatures for the day.

Speaking of this moisture entering the area. It has been tough to
see much in the way of measurable rain. It will take echoes
greater than 35-40 dBz to observe measurable rain, with the lower
echoes producing sprinkles/drizzle. All of the short range models
are insistent that this activity will fall apart this evening as
the trough axis quickly moves to our east. Most areas will see
patchy drizzle with a few showers this evening, with slow clearing
expected from northwest to southeast overnight. Depending on how
quickly we clear, there is the potential for fog development,
particularly in valleys and near bodies of water.

Clearing will continue Saturday morning with sunshine expected the
remainder of the day. The brunt of the incoming airmass will be
spilling into the region. In spite of full afternoon sunshine,
temperatures will only warm into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Surface high pressure will hang on over the area Saturday night
and result in decent radiational cooling conditions. Valleys in
the eastern Ozarks will be prone to dropping into the upper 30s,
with everyone else well into the 40s. Southerly winds will help
temperatures rebound into the 70s on Sunday.

As has been advertised so far, another cold front will enter the
region from the northwest on Monday. Have maintained high chance
PoPs with this feature. There is enough instability to support a
continued mention for thunder, though there is no expectation for
strong/severe storms at this point.

Heading into the middle and latter portions of next week,
questions creep into the forecast. The region will be beneath
northwest flow aloft. Our area will be very near the transition
between well below normal temperatures to the east and warmer
temperatures to the southwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
periodic chances for showers in this transition zone, the question
is just where it will set up. Have kept PoPs near climatology for
now. Temperatures next week look to remain below average at this
point, with 70s during the day and 50s at night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A secondary cold front passed through the area this afternoon with
northerly winds increasing behind this feature. Brisk and gusty
north winds will continue into this evening before gradually
diminish overnight. Meanwhile, confidence is very high that low-
end MVFR ceilings will persist into the early overnight period.
Pockets of IFR are also expected along with drizzle. Confidence
then decreases late tonight and early Saturday morning as weather
models offer a variety of scenarios. Some models try to clear
skies out and develop dense fog. Other models show ceilings
remaining and building down into the IFR range. We geared this TAF
issuance towards the second scenario as upstream satellite imagery
still indicates extensive cloud cover. Regardless of which
scenario pans out, the extended period of MVFR and occasional IFR
looks to continue into early Saturday morning. Clouds will then
clear out at some point Saturday morning, but confidence is also
low regarding when this clearing will occur. Timing will be fine-
tuned with later TAF issuances/amendments.


Issued at 1038 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A northerly wind and clouds will make it tough for temperatures to
warm much today. The following are record low high temperatures
for today.

Site   Temp    Year
SGF     60     1892
JLN     64     1975
UNO     65     1975
VIH     62     1975




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