Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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127
FXUS63 KSGF 151151
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

A Gulf airmass was observed over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were very mild this morning, holding
in the 60s in almost all locations. Some light rain was ongoing as
strong moisture advection persisted.

A few light showers will continue this morning, particularly on
the Missouri side, therefore we have some small pops going.

Regardless of a few showers, temperatures are going to shoot up
into the middle 70s today. It wouldn`t surprise anyone if upper
70s were observed somewhere across southwest Missouri.

Later tonight, a cold front will approach from the north, forcing
some showers and even a clap of thunder or two. Areas along and
south of Interstate 44 will receive the best chances for precip
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

By Friday morning, showers will be exiting the Ozarks to the
southeast. Much cooler weather is expected with highs only in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. North winds will usher in Canadian air,
setting the stage for lows in the 20s Friday night into early
Saturday morning.

For Saturday, a return of southerly breezes will occur bringing
temperatures back into the 50s.

Southwest flow strengthens on Sunday into early next week,
with strong moisture advection. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop by Sunday evening, and continue into Monday and Monday
night.

Will need to monitor how unstable the Ozarks airmass can become
with so much shear available. There could be a risk for some
organized storms Sunday night into Monday night. We will have a
better handle on this with future model runs.

With the southwest flow continuing beyond Monday, we will need to
watch for post frontal precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Gusty southerly winds will occur today ahead of an approaching
cold front. An isolated light shower may be possible this morning
but covered will be limited and most locations will remain dry.

The front will push through the area this evening, and winds will
shift to the northwest and will remain gusty. Ceilings will lower
overnight and showers will also spread into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise



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