Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 101210
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
710 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A west-northwest flow aloft will persist today with multiple
upstream short wave troughs noted across the Plains. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are therefore expected today across the
Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas as these waves approach
in a weakly diffluent flow aloft. High temperatures should be
very similar to what we saw on Wednesday with most areas warming
into the middle 80s.

A stronger wave will then begin to drive a cold front into the
region tonight. The potential for showers and thunderstorms is
therefore expected to increase, especially from southeastern
Kansas into western and southwestern Missouri. There may be a
small window of opportunity this evening for a few stronger storms
as deep layer shear increases. However, the better severe weather
threat will remain west of the area across the Central Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

That front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the
stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes.
The potential for showers and storms will therefore continue into
Friday, especially across southern Missouri.

The big question then remains how far south of the area that front
will get from this weekend into early next week. The west-
northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire
period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in
the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest
swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the
Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent
consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across
that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri
are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest
amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time
with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west
and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation
closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis
may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at
least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

VFR conditions expected in general, however, there will be a few
rounds of showers and storms through this TAF cycle. This morning
there will be mostly widely scattered activity for all terminals.
There may be a break this afternoon before chances increase again
this evening and overnight. Naturally, MVFR ceilings and
visibilities can be expected in heavier storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye



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