Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201745
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A persistent sfc ridge extending from the Great Lakes to the
Ozarks and rising mid level heights will keep the overall weather
quiet. Some fog will be possible, mainly south of I-44 where low
level winds will be lightest. Some localized fog on/near lakes may
also be possible. 850mb temperature fields are unseasonably warm
for this time of year and supportive of sfc highs in the low 90s
for the western and northern cwfa.

Some high res guidance (NAM nest, ARW) does try to break out a few
showers today. Having a tough time seeing any forcing mechanisms for
this and sfc dew points for NAM nest seem a bit too high. Not
carrying any significant rain chances, but chances for isolated
activity are non-zero. Will watch trends.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Persistent high pressure aloft will flatten out Wed/Thu as
disturbances shift northeast from the Rockies to the Corn
Belt/Great Lakes. Rain chances look to be well west through north
of the area confined to a stalled front.

Medium range guidance is persistent in shifting a strong upper
level trough into the western CONUS late Thu-Fri with a
downstream strong upper level ridge building over us. The high
amplitude pattern will continue into the weekend with the western
system cutting off and only very slowly shifting eastward. Rain
chances will increase over eastern KS western MO over the weekend
as the upper system and associated sfc front move slowly eastward.
The timing of this rain is questionable given the high
amplitude/slow pattern.

With the main belt of mid latitude westerlies shifted far to the
north, we aren`t looking at a cool fall season air mass for a few
days. However, it finally looks like the passage of the front
associated with the western system will move into the area early
next week with continued rain chances Sunday/Mon. Some guidance is
hinting that at least the tail end/fringe of a modified Canadian
air mass might try briefly to make a push into the area Mon-Tue,
but it doesn`t look to be a significant cool down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: A hot and humid air mass is
currently in place across the region this afternoon. There is no
forcing for storms, but just given the amount of instability from
the heating of a day an isolated pulse type storm or two may be
possible. If any storms can develop coverage will be very limited
with most locations remaining dry. Therefore, confidence in both
storms developing and then affecting a TAF site is to low to
include any mention in the TAFs at this time.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through
Wednesday morning. Winds will be out of the south to southwest.
Diurnal cumulus clouds will occur this but will dissipate this
evening with mainly clear skies expected overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.

SGF...

9/20--97/1954, 71/1931
9/21--93/1955, 73/1931
9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937

JLN...

9/20--99/1954, 75/1980
9/21--95/1956, 76/1980
9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986

UNO...

9/20--97/1954, 71/2005
9/21--97/1955, 69/1964
9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984

VIH...

9/20--95/1954, 71/1965
9/21--94/1955, 72/1980
9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Boxell



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