Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1133 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

The area stills remains under high pressure this afternoon with
the high forecast to continue to drift eastward. Winds will become
lighter after sunset with overnight lows ranging from the upper
50s to low 60s.

Our next weather maker is an upper level trough currently making
its way across southern California. This trough is expected to
continue to dig into the southern Rockies during the day on
Tuesday. This will have the affect of tightening up the surface
pressure gradient which will increase our winds beginning Tuesday
morning. Wind gusts could approach 30 mph during the day along and
west of Interstate 49. Highs on Tuesday should once again make it
into the 80s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

The upper level system is expected to become negatively tilted as
it moves into the Central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should move in after midnight
over portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri...and
continue across the area on Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall
amounts should be rather light and severe weather is not expected
at this time.  Winds will be gusty as well on Wednesday.

The second weather maker will make its way onto the Pacific
Northwest coast on Tuesday and meander across the Central Rockies
before moving out into the Northern Plains by late in the week.
This system will begin affecting the region on Thursday night as
primarily as a moderate to heavy rain maker. Heaviest rainfall
should occur during the overnight hours on Thursday as well as the
overnight hours on Friday. This system is expected to hang around
through the weekend. Right now...looks like the heavier rainfall
amounts will occur over extreme southeast Kansas and western

It is still a little too far out yet to pinpoint a specific severe
threat with this storm. The GFS remains a little more progressive
and a bit stronger than the ECMWF. Looks like the system should be
through the entire area by Monday. With that frontal
passage...temperatures should return to more seasonable levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. Low level south winds will increase over
the area as low pressure over the Plains slowly advances east.
Maintained low level wind shear for the KJLN taf early.
Moderately gusty winds will occur at KSGF and KJLN after the night
time inversion mixes out after 14z-15z.




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