Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232045

245 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

High pressure moving across northern Missouri this afternoon was
giving the Ozarks some sunshine. Dry air from northeasterly winds
was helping to keep the clouds at bay for the most part.
Temperatures were not responding to the sun however with most of
the Ozarks still in the upper teens to middle 20s early this

The area of high pressure will continue to control the region`s
weather through the overnight hours though some lingering high
clouds will move over the area. Temperatures overnight will fall
into the upper single digits to middle teens with light winds. The
light winds will allow wind chills to drop to 0 to 5 above by
Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure and a weak upper level ridge moving towards
the region will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to
lower 40s for tomorrow afternoon. This will occur in advance of an
upper level trough that will begin to move across the plains
during the day on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

The upper level trough will approach the area early Wednesday and
slide east of the Ozarks through the day. Behind the trough, a
clipper system will be waiting in the wings for upper level
northwesterly flow to reassert itself over the plains.

This clipper system will move to the southeast across Missouri
with snow expected to develop and move across the Ozarks during
the overnight hours late Wednesday night through mid day Thursday.
While the moisture content of the air with which the clipper system
will have to work will be limited, models are painting snow
accumulations from a half-inch to one and a half inches across the
area. Will continue to monitor this system and fine tune the
amounts and areas affected through the next 24 hours.

High pressure will build over the region for Thursday night into
Friday as the upper level pattern shifts to a westerly to slightly
southwesterly flow aloft. This will be important for the weekend
and into early next week as low and mid level moisture from the
Gulf attempt to make its way north on southerly winds as the
surface high departs to the east.

The models have been consistent with bringing somewhat robust
precipitation into the area late Friday afternoon and continuing it
through early next week with a few breaks. The changes come with
how the models handle the temperatures and precipitation types.
For now, thinking that the precipitation will begin as light snow
overnight Friday and transition to rain during the day Saturday.

Cooler temperatures Saturday night would make things snow again
until warmer temperatures during the day Sunday allow the
precipitation to become rain again, only to be repeated Sunday
night into Monday next week.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the weather for the
weekend however and will continue to monitor model forecast through
the week to hone in on what we can expect.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Good fetch of
mid/high level clouds will persist over the area well into
tonight. Meanwhile, at the surface, a ridge of high pressure will
move through and result in light/variable winds. This high shifts
to the east tomorrow and southwesterly flow will quickly develop
(becoming gusty at times).




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