Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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278
FXUS63 KSGF 181117
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Upper level high pressure will begin to strengthen and build over
the central United States. Hot and humid conditions can therefore
be expected again today with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
Afternoon heat indices will once again be in the 98 to 108 degree
range as surface dew points range from the upper 60s to middle
70s.

After extensive collaboration with neighboring offices, we decided
to issue a Heat Advisory for all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas from this afternoon through the
remainder of the work week. We are very confident that most areas
will see at least four consecutive days of 100+ afternoon heat
indices. As a refresher, the criteria we utilize for a Heat
Advisory is as follows:

1) Heat indices are expected to reach 105 degrees OR
2) Heat indices reach 100+ for at least four consecutive days

The prospects for convection today look extremely low due to poor
moisture profiles/low precipitable water values. The better chance
for pulse thunderstorms will be over eastern Missouri.

Low temperatures tonight should be very similar to those of early
this morning with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

As we already implied in the Short Term discussion, the heat will
persist throughout the work week. We may see dew points lower just
a bit over some areas, but temperatures over those same areas may
then warm up a few degrees. Thus, there will be little change to
actual heat indices. It is quite possible that portions of the
Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded at some point to an
Excessive Heat Warning. This upgrade would be needed if:

1) Heat indices are expected to reach 110 degrees OR
2) Heat indices reach 105+ for at least four consecutive days

It is also possible that heat headlines may need to be extended
into at least Saturday.

Meanwhile, we will have at least some opportunities for pulse type
thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Locally
derived pulse thunderstorm indices/ingredients indicate that
overall moisture profiles will be more favorable for updraft
initiation and survival. Additionally, the environment appears as
if it would be supportive of microburst potential. We will
therefore be inserting a limited risk for severe storms into our
Hazardous Weather Outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday...mainly over
the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks.

Our next chance for storms may then come late this weekend as
global models try and suppress that high back towards the Desert
Southwest. If this happens, we could see a cold front attempt to
drop south into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

No weather concerns with aviation and pilots flying in and out of
the Ozarks region. VFR will continue...Mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin



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