Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 091223

723 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Quiet weather is expected through today and most, if not all,
tonight. A sfc ridge of high pressure over the Plains will move
through the cwfa today and then shift off to the east Thu. Some
areas, especially the eastern cwfa could see lows into the 50s,
but it looks like they will stay several degrees above daily
record lows.

Convection is expected to develop over the central High Plains
region late today and this evening in response to a subtle
shortwave and associated general zone of stronger isentropic lift
associated with a 850mb jet. Late tonight the approaching shortwave
and veering jet may take some weakening elevated convection into
eastern KS toward 12z, but better chances are expected to remain
to our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Some of the left over convection from Wed night will make a
continued eastward push into MO (particularly western MO) on Thu.
After a short weakening trend, late night elevated convection is
expected to increase again Thu night farther to the east and
northeast as a low level front lifts back into the area. Have the
highest pops over central MO/northern cwfa for Thu night.

Upper level subtropical ridging is briefly progged to become
established over the area Fri/Sat. By Sat, progged soundings are
fairly dry with a sw sfc wind, and that usually produces very
warm sfc temps, sometimes topping guidance. Mid 90s highs should
be common, but lower dew points should keep heat index values from
getting too out of hand.

By late in the weekend/Sunday a shortwave is expected to move
southeast into the Midwest around a strong upper low just south of
Hudson Bay. This will push the upper ridging back to the southwest
and allow a cold front to move south into the area late in the
day. A continued west to southwest low level fetch won`t bring in
a lot of much moisture initially, but low level convergence with the
front and strong sfc heating should start to produce at least
isolated-widely scattered convection during the afternoon.

The front is expected to hang up close or just south of the MO/AR
border Sunday night and Monday with continued chances for periodic
showers/thunderstorms. Medium range global models/guidance keep a
deep nw flow pattern established over northern/central Plains and
Midwest early next week, pushing the front farther to the south by
Day 7/8 Tue/Wed. The GFS lags and is somewhat weaker with this push of
cooler/drier air to the south versus the ECMWF, so will continue
to carry some small pops Tue, but have toned down the higher GFS
based pops a bit.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

High pressure will be in control of the regions weather for the
next 24 hours. Aviators flying into the region can expect VFR
flight conditions and light surface winds.




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