Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog will continue to impact visibilities for the Joplin and
Branson terminals through 14z this morning. Visibilities will be
IFR for the BBG and JLN terminals with MVFR visibilities for the
SGF terminal. Cloud cover across the region was limited to the JLN
and BBG aerodromes and across southern Missouri. By mid morning,
cloud cover and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR
conditions as upper level ridging and surface high pressure move
across the region.

Some light fog may impact the BBG and JLN terminals again
Wednesday morning as light winds and cool temperatures allow for
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch







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