540
FXUS63 KSGF 270448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

An upper level trough is currently spreading south across the
region this afternoon. Showers and a few storms have developed
across the area ahead of this feature. Instability is currently
weak across much of the area so lightning has been isolated at
best in nature so far this afternoon. Instability is slightly
stronger across Kansas, and could see more scattered storms across
extreme southeastern Kansas late this afternoon into this
evening. The weaker instability should overall limit any strong
to severe storms across the area this afternoon/evening.

Scattered showers and a few storms could linger into the overnight
hours but should spread south of the area by Tuesday morning.
Another cool night for June is in store for the Missouri Ozarks
and southeastern Kansas as temperature drop into the 50s.

Surface highs pressure will overspread the area Tuesday resulting
in sunny skies as highs warm into the upper 70s to the middle 80s
during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Upper level ridging will build over the area Tuesday night, though
an upper level disturbance will move across the plains and flatten
the ridge Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge should still hold the
storm track to the north of the area during this time. A complex
of storms is expected to develop across the Plains into northern
Missouri both Wednesday and Thursday nights. Will have to watch if
these complexes can slide south into the area during the
overnight hours. Overall a strong cap will be in place across the
area so any activity should dissipate as they moves into the
area.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday will warm into the middle to upper
80s each afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will occur on Wednesday
as the warm air mass spreads into the area.

Friday an upper level trough will dive across the Plains and send
a front into the area. This will provide a trigger for showers and
storms to develop across the area. Depending on the exact timing
of the front instability should increase quite a bit ahead of the
front during the day on Friday. This could lead to a strong to
severe risk Friday if the instability can develop. Will have to
see if the complex of storms Thursday night leaves clouds across
the area and affects instability or outflow from the storms
becomes the affective front and pushes through earlier in the day
before the better instability develops. Any strong to severe risk
would be strong winds and a hail risk with the strongest storms.

The front will then likely stall over or near the area through the
weekend. Showers and storms will remain possible along the front
through the weekend, likely will not be all day type rains, but
periods of showers and storms would be possible at times through
the weekend. Locations that see multiple storms track over the
same location could see a localized flood risk but at this time
not expected a widespread risk.

Highs in the lower 80s are expected each afternoon from Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A band of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms will
continue to sink southeast across southern Missouri during the
early overnight hours. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected with this activity.

There is then a slight chance for MVFR fog late tonight and early
Tuesday morning if clouds clear and winds become light enough.
However, confidence was too low to include in the TAFs.

Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected Tuesday and Tuesday
evening with light southeast winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann