095
FXUS63 KSGF 160851
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
351 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather on Thursday mainly east
  of I-49. Main threats are damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
  heavy rainfall with those storms.

- Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances through the
  weekend. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall are likely where
  storms do form.

- Temperatures gradually increase into the lower 90s through the
  weekend. Heat index values will reach 100-105 degrees this
  weekend into early next week. Heat products may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Today will be another warm and partly sunny day with highs in
the low 90s featuring thunderstorms in the afternoon once
again. These pop-up thunderstorms will favor areas along and
south of I-44, very similar to Tuesday. Main threats with these
storms is brief heavy rainfall. It`ll also sort of feel like a
hair dryer outside today with breezy southwesterly winds gusting
up to 25 mph across the area. This is due the tightening of the
pressure gradient as a result of an incoming surface low moving
in from the west.

Tonight, the winds will start to diminish and lows in the low
70s and partly cloudy skies. Skies will be the cloudiest near
central MO as a cold front starts to slowly sink south through
the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Thursday features a Marginal risk for severe weather (1/5)
mainly east of I-49 with the main threat being damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph. This is due to an incoming cold front that
will be positioned horizontally west to east across the state.
Instability will be strongest just along/south of the front over
central MO with MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and dewpoints
in the mid 70s. Though, cloud cover near the front earlier in
the day will play an important part in how strong these storms
become. Thunderstorm chances will be more widespread and higher
due to the front. Chances for precipitation peak by Thursday
afternoon with the highest percentages occurring over central MO
(north of I-44) with 50-70% chance for rain while areas south
of I-44 have a 30-50% chance of seeing rain. Rain chances do
linger into the overnight hours with a 20-30% chance of rain
forecast for Thursday night as the cold front hangs out over
central MO. We will still have to watch for flooding on Thursday
as we are in a Marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall over
most of the area. This is likely because of the front stalling
out over the state coupled with our low flash flood guidance
(we`re saturated!).

Friday into Monday: Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe
storms will decrease in coverage and probability through this
time range as an upper high builds into the region.

Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected on
Thursday, then temperatures start increasing this weekend into
next week as an upper high builds into the region. By the
weekend, look for highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index
values of 100-105 across the area. Similar, or slightly warmer,
conditions are possible early to mid next week. Heat products
may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR through the period with gusty southwesterly winds for
Wednesday. Wind gusts will reach 20 knots at times in the
afternoon but will diminish by the evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria