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000
FXUS63 KMPX 131742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FINALLY ANOTHER SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY EVENING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
WITH 70S THE RULE...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE IT A FINE
DAY.

LATE TONIGHT...SOME INDICATION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
FIRING ALONG NORTHEAST EDGE OF BUILDING MID LEVEL CAP OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND IN THE REGION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE TREND ON
THE SREF HAS BEEN INCREASING THE QPF PROBABILITIES OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO BRING
IN SOME LOW QPF INTO THAT REGION AS WELL. THE 21Z 1HR THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST MN LATE IN
THE NIGHT.  WILL MATCH SOUTHWEST AREA LOW END POPS/THUNDER AFTER 09Z
FRI FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REENTER THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
LOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL /1.5 INCHES/ BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS MODERATE 925-850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADVECTION AND 700-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS ARE PROGGED TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WHEN 60-80 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA /SOUTH CENTRAL
MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI/ WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SEEING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL
OPTIMISTIC THAT SUNDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY...DESPITE THE
SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES TROUGH PIVOT SOUTH
ACROSS MN/WI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL MN/WI WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CONUS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THOSE TWO DAYS...AND INCLUDED A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE
RIDGE WILL BE OVERCOME BY ENERGY EJECTING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. HOWEVER...THE 13.00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE SIMILAR
IN THEIR DEPICTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THURSDAY...WITH REFINEMENT AS
FUTURE RUNS EITHER CONFIRM OR DENY THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MN/DKTS BORDER
THIS MORNING MOVES TO E WI BY 18Z FRI. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NE TO SE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15KTS OUT W TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS AOA 20KTS AFT 16Z. A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS IS ALL THAT WILL
BE SEEN TODAY. MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN AOA 8 KFT THROUGH 18Z FRI.
SCATTERED HI-BASED -SHRA MAY AFFECT THE WRN TAF SITES AFT
15Z...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS. THERE MAY EVEN
BE A TSTM SOMEWHERE ACROSS W CENTRAL MN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO PIN-POINT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE (OR TIME) AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...VFR. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS THEY START TO SHIFT
SE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO ABV 7KTS BY 11Z, WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 100. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
FOR -SHRA TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY AFT 16Z, BUT SINCE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT REAL HIGH AND IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL...HAVE DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT SAT/00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE. TSRA POSSIBLE. S BCMG W 10KTS.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JCA