Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 051731
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1131 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.updated for 18z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The intensifying surface low that moved through last night is now
just north of Lake Superior in Ontario.  The snow has come to an end
with the exception of a few flurries or very light snow showers
coming out of the low clouds on the back side of the system.
Temperatures have fallen into the teens in western MN and the low
20s in eastern MN and western WI.

The surface low will continue on a northeasterly course, but will
continue deepening through the day.  So, despite it moving farther
away, today is going to remain pretty blustery.  Expect west winds
of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 35-40 MPH.  At this time, we don`t think
winds will exceed Wind Advisory criteria, but will come close to
reaching it, mainly in far southern MN.  Temperatures will hold
pretty steady all days under strong cold air advection.

The far eastern portion of the forecast area (essentially western
WI) will see light snow showers or flurries later today through
tonight, but no accumulation is expected.  A shortwave will drop
through the Dakotas and graze southwestern MN with the chance
for snow tonight, but that looks to remain southwest of our forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The long term period is overall is pretty quiet overall in terms of
precip.  Little in the way of QPF is expected during the period and
the newly arrived cold air will keep temepratures below normal
through the end of the work week.  We will see some moderation of
temperatures out ahead of a fast moving clipper system in the Sunday-
Monday timeframe.

The highly amplified pattern looks to be here to stay for the 7 day
period, with most of that period keeping us on the west side of the
upper trough and under persistent northwest flow.  The clipper
system for Sunday-Monday could bring light snow to the region, but
will race through quickly.  A reinforcing shot of cold air from
Canada looks to follow the clipper into the middle of next week,
which at this point looks to be colder than normal for mid-
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

MVFR cigs with wdly sct -shsn remain over the northeast cwa. We
expect erosion of this area from west to east this afternoon and
becoming vfr. Later tonight secondary trough will drop over the
area with increasing lower level clouds and threat of more -shsn
and mVFR cigs develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly
over eastern areas. Gusty nw-w winds continue through the
afternoon diminishing to the southwest by late afternoon as a
clipper system drops southeast over SODAK and western IA. Gusty
west/nw winds to continue into Wednesday as well.

KMSP...May see MVFR cigs into early afternoon with passing -shsn.
Expect a general vfr trend into tonight with possible MVFR cigs
-shsn returning during the day Wednesday. Continue the gusty w-nw
 winds through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...VFR. MVFR possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
Thu...VFR. MVFR possible late with Chc -SN.Wind NW 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. MVFR possible early with Slgt Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...DWE



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