Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 081733 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1033 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across central
and western New Mexico. MVFR conditions prevail at KLVS, KTCC and
KROW, with improvement forecast early this afternoon. MVFR cigs
are forecast to redevelop overnight at KTCC and KROW, with
potential for short-lived IFR conditions at KROW around sunrise.
Otherwise, winds will generally be light except for some late
morning gustiness at KTCC toward the end of the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...317 AM MST Thu Dec 8 2016...
Northwest flow aloft to dominate the weather story through the
next 7 days. A few short wave troughs embedded in the flow aloft
will bring a little precipitation only to the northern mountains.
Surface cold fronts will bring chillier air, mainly to the east.
Moderate winds will accompany the disturbances, which look to be
on Sunday, Tuesday and late next week.
Lots of low clouds across central and eastern areas early this
morning. They will be stubborn and not want to leave today,
especially in the east. A little bit of snow and freezing drizzle
may impact much of the east this morning, favoring the east slopes
of the central mountain chain. Otherwise it is going to be a cold
day with highs up to 25 degrees below normal on the eastern plains.
Warm air advection will be underway tonight and continue into the
weekend. With the warmer air overriding the chilly air there could
be just a smidgen of freezing drizzle near the TX border late
tonight. Friday and Saturday will be dry and noticeably milder
especially in the east. Winds will also be on the increase with
breezy to windy conditions over the central mountains and onto the
eastern highlands and plains. Highs will rebound to near normal
Friday and above normal Saturday.
The next short wave will approach Saturday and cross NM Sunday.
The system will be moisture starved with dewpoints having trouble
rising above the 20s. But the magic of orographic lift will be
able to squeeze what moisture there is and deposit a little snow
Saturday night into Sunday over the northern mountains. A few
inches could accumulate on the high peaks of the San Juan
Mountains. Highs will level off and actually drop some over the
north on Sunday.
The next trough and associated cold front will approach Monday
and cross the state Monday night into Tuesday. This is when the
models diverge on the amount of cold air that will follow the
front. The GFS is way colder than the ECMWF or Canadian with huge
differences in the highs on Tuesday and Wednesday and the lows
Tuesday night. Our temperatures will fall in between the GFS and
ECMWF, leaning to the not so cold European.
Dry and chilly on Wednesday with the next trough approaching late
in the week. CHJ
Much colder air has moved into NM and high temperatures today will
largely be below freezing across much of northern and eastern NM.
Abundant low clouds this morning should diminish by early this
afternoon, though are expected to return tonight. It will still be
chilly tonight, though most areas will be a few degrees warmer with
excellent RH recoveries expected.
Low level winds will veer around to the southwest on Friday as a lee
side trough develops. The resultant downslope flow will help to
boost temperatures considerably across the plains -- on the order of
15 to 25 degrees. With the exception of the southeast plains, which
will remain well below normal, most areas should be within a few
degrees of normal Friday. Despite the increase in wind, mixing
heights remain very low and thus widespread poor ventilation is
expected Friday as well as today.
West-northwest flow aloft will persist Friday through Monday, though
a weak shortwave will pass to the north of the state on Sunday. This
is a bit later than what models were showing yesterday. Thus, in
addition to the breezy to windy conditions on Saturday, it also
looks like Sunday will feature breezy to windy conditions along and
east of the central mountain chain. Daytime humidities will remain
above 25% for most of the area during this time, though temps will
continue to warm on Saturday. All areas will be above normal on
Saturday, and despite a few degree cooling on Sunday thanks to the
wave to the north, temps should still stay above normal except for
the northern mountains. A little bit of light snow will also be
possible across the northern mountains on Sunday, but light accums,
if any, are expected.
The GFS has changed its tune for early next week. It now carves out
a trough late Monday over the intermountain west and slides it
eastward Tuesday. The associated cold front would bring a similar
airmass to the current one, again resulting in much colder
temperatures. Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows a much weaker wave, well to
the north of the state, and thus a weaker cold front. Suspect the
GFS is a bit too bullish with its cold air intrusion based on its
Wed and Thurs look fairly quiet, but the ECMWF in particular now
shows some hope for some wetting precipitation now around the Friday
timeframe. Cross your fingers.
After the poor vent rates today and tomorrow, ventilation slowly
improves Saturday and Sunday. Vent rates will largely depend on
which solution (GFS or ECMWF) is more accurate early next week. 34