Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 261144 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MT WAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS A BIT MORE OUT OF THE NORTH. A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MT
WAVE WILL BE SQUIRRELLY WINDS AT KLVS...WHERE THERE IS ONLY MODEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW AREAS
WILL NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOLKS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH
TO TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS WILL BE ENJOYING UPPER 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPEARS ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST GOES HIGH DENSITY UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATES A 70-90
KNOT NORTHWEST FLOW JET IN PLACE OVER NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
VERIFIES MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 09Z STILL SHOWED WINDY
CONDITIONS IN A FEW AREAS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO
CLINES CORNERS AND RUIDOSO. EVEN SOME RETURN FLOW BENEATH THE
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED WITH EAST WINDS AT MORIARTY.
00Z/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER WINDS RELAXING THROUGH
TODAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN NM ALLOWING HIGHS TO
TREND ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE EAST AS A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL INTRUSION SHIFTS SOUTH
OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FLATTEN TO QUASI-ZONAL
OVER NM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM AND LEAD TO EXCELLENT KATABATIC
FLOW CONDITIONS. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 700MB TEMPS OF +8 TO +10C WILL BE SOME
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE NOVEMBER. EXPECT HIGHS
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. THE WEST WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT WITH LESS WIND THAN
THE EAST THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT EVER GETS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STORM SYSTEM PUSHING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THE GFS AND DGEX FAVOR A
MOIST TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO SHOWS A SLOWER AND DRIER WAVE FARTHER
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS BEGIN
TO MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WEAKER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL AT ODDS ON TRACK...TIMING AND DEPTH...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND/OR PRECIPITATION OVER NM DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
WHEN HIGHS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 9 TO 26 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
SHOULD EQUATE TO SOME NEAR RECORD READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HUMIDITIES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TREND
DOWNWARD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF CLIMB TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD AND DRAWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST AND SHIFTS
INLAND. AFTER MINIMUM HUMIDITIES CRATER BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MANY
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEY WILL REBOUND
AREAWIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED AND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE PLAINS...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY. AN EXCEPTION SHOULD BE NOTED FROM GRANTS TO EL MORO AND
SOCORRO WHERE AN AREA OF IMPROVED VENTILATION IS EXPECTED. POOR
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AGAIN THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
POCKETS OF VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THE
LEE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE EASTERN WINDS GUSTY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENABLING FURTHER VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT THERE.
HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
POOR VENT RATES LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION IN MOST PLACES AS WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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