Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 270358 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
958 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Quick update to lower tonight`s low temps by 1 to 3 degrees across
much, not all, of NM`s eastern plains. Am also considering
trimming the fog coverage in wx grids across se plains. Chances
look a bit lower than earlier.
.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Possible
exception is local MVFR cigs from the KROW to KCVN area 27/10-15Z
but confidence remains low. High clouds to increase through the
night with some mid level (15,000 feet) clouds developing
Thursday mainly in the northwest. 40
.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016...
Temperatures will remain well above normal for the next several
days as the dome of high pressure dominates the state. Winds will
begin to pick up Friday into the weekend as the high shifts
eastward allowing an increase in southwest flow. Drier conditions
will also prevail the next several days except for periods of
increasing high clouds.
Current water vapor imagery shows the center of high pressure over
Northern Old Mexico slowly churning eastward with drier air aloft
over New Mexico. Surface winds in the east will continue veering
southward the rest of the day into the overnight period as the
weak back door cold front washes out. Temperatures will be a
little cooler for east central and south central areas overnight
into Thursday because of cooler conditions followed by return
flow ushering in surface moisture across the extreme SE Plains.
Decided to add patchy fog in the Wx grids for eastern
Chaves/southern Roosevelt counties overnight through early
Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures will warm a few degrees central
and north with increasing high clouds on Thursday.
The dome of high pressure begins breaking down as it shifts
eastward Friday. SW winds will begin picking up as an upper level
shortwave trough inches toward the state. Higher wind gusts and
temperatures will favor eastern areas because of leeside troughing
that will continue over the weekend. The shortwave trough will
bring in some mid level moisture across the state on Saturday with
minimal shower chances across the northwest.
Sunday into Monday, mid level drying with stronger winds will
dominate as an upper level jet crosses the CO Rockies developing
mountain wave activity across the Sangre De Cristos. Although
temperatures will remain above normal, they look to cool a few
degrees areawide. So far models are still persistent in keeping
precipitation to our north Monday so confidence is low for any
possibilities across the extreme north central/northwestern half
of the state until midweek.
Strong ridge of high pressure and inversions aloft to persist
tonight and into Friday before shifting to the southeast of NM due
to a stronger trough moving through the central Rockies. A trend
towards southwest winds aloft combined with a surface lee trough
Thursday and Friday will help boost vent rates moreso Friday than
Thursday when poor rates will remain widespread across the northwest
third to half of the state. High temperatures will continue to be
above average through Friday, with Friday being the warmer day for
many locales across the east.
A brief cool down for the northeast and east central possible
Saturday thanks to a weak wind shift. A few light showers or even a
short lived thunderstorm could develop due to the passing short wave
trough Friday night or Saturday over the higher terrain of the far
northwest but chances for wetting precipitation to remain near to
less than 10 percent. Vent rates Saturday improve to good to
excellent overall due to the combination of higher mixing heights
and stronger transport winds. Sunday may see diminished vent rates
for the central valleys and northeast, with the state in between
systems passing to the north. Vent rates continue to decrease early
next week, with widespread poor rates forecast for next Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain above average for late October and early
November. The next opportunity for wetting precipitation may not
come until the middle of next week although the GFS and ECMWF vary
significantly in the strength of the incoming system.