Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231119
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions with winds becoming
southerly by the late morning hours. As mixing increases, we will
see winds increase to near 15kt with gusts near 30kt. After
sunset, wind gusts should cease while sustained winds remain in
the 12kt to 20kt range.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Winds have diminished across the Panhandles and skies are mostly
clear, allowing for strong radiational cooling. Temperatures
flirting with the freezing point will result in a possible
widespread frost this morning. Therefore a Frost Advisory remains
in effect through 9AM. Collingsworth County is the only area that
is expected to stay warm enough to not see a frost. South winds
returning this afternoon will allow temperatures to be back in the
low 70s.

Sunday night into Monday flow will shift more zonal, but warming
aloft and sufficient mixing will allow for temperatures to reach
upper 80s to near 90.

Tuesdays highs will be a bit tricky as west to southwest flow will
be over the area, but the upper level trough axis will be just
west of the Panhandles and the heights will begin to fall. We may
not reach full mixing if cooler air starts to funnel in sooner. Some
instability for a possible shower/storm over the northern
Panhandles ahead of the shortwave. Stable showers expected behind
the cold front.

Right now Wednesday morning lows are in the low 40s, but will
keep an eye out as models have been trending colder, and we could
see lows falling into the 30s with future updates. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 60s. The fast moving cold
front will move through and exit by Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will quickly recover into the lower to mid 70s under
west to southwest flow on Thursday.

Models have started to come better in line for Friday and
Saturday. Overall, an upper level trough will begin to dive
south, centered mainly over the four corners region with very
warm southerly flow ahead on Friday. With southeast moisture
advection ahead of this system a strong dryline looks to set up
along the eastern TX/OK state line. There is some indication that
some moisture might advect over portions of the northeast TX/OK
Panhandle. Right now CAPE values over these areas are right
around 1000 J/kg. As we move into Saturday the atmosphere will
become more stable with subsidence aloft, and drier air. Expect
that Saturday will be a windy day with strong winds aloft mixing
down.

FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds will mix down on Monday afternoon with very warm
temperatures and relative humidities ranging from 10 to 20 percent
across the western and central Panhandles. Eastern portions will
be in the 20 to 30 percent. This will put most of the area in
Elevated Fire Weather conditions, and therefore a Fire Danger
Statement might be needed.

Tuesday and Wednesday will still be warm but humidities will be
higher and the southwest portions of the Panhandles might touch 20
percent.

Weber

AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the forecast period with light and variable winds overnight.
Around midday winds will increase from the south into the 12kt to
15kt range with higher gusts. These gusts should cease after 2Z
Monday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...
     Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

14/89



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