Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 231751 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
For the 18Z TAFS, expect isold tstms to develop late this afternoon
and evening generally nw of a line extending from near KGUY to near KDHT.
Storms may become scattered in coverage across the western OK Panhandle.
Due to the general isold storm coverage and low confidence, have
decided to omit mention of this weather element in both the KGUY and
KDHT TAFs. Do not expect tstms to threaten KAMA at this time. Sfc
winds will diminish near sunset this evening.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/
Southwest surface winds expected to commence gusting into the 20 to
25 kt range around 14z to 15z as stronger winds just above the
surface (as sampled by KAMA 88d) mix to the surface. Isolated
thunderstorms early this evening across northwest part of forecast
area may have a brief impact at KDHT or KGUY, but will not include in
forecasts until stronger signal for development is seen. Otherwise,
no clouds other than cirrus expected. No visibility restrictions
foreseen. VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/
Upper level high pressure continues to weaken today; however, lee
side troughing means southwest flow at the surface will translate
into another day with triple digit heat for most. A shortwave riding
around the 594 dm bubble will allow a chance for mountain convection
to make it into the northwestern Panhandles this afternoon and
evening. With weak shear and minimal CAPE, storms are not expected to
become severe. CAMs also indicate the storms will be pulse like and
remain confined to the northwest.
Sunday will see temps in the upper 90s as lee side troughing remains
in place. However, a frontal boundary stemming from a low pressure
system in eastern-central Canada will bring more widespread showers
and thunderstorms to the area. With the extra soil moisture and
southeast upslope flow keeping clouds around, Monday will see
"cooler" temps...mid 90s. Chances for rain will continue through the
week as well with the upslope flow and moisture pumping in from the
Gulf as an upper level trough moves through the Great Plains
Wednesday, leaving the area in northwest flow. Models are in general
agreement of timing with minor variances to extent of ridging and the
degree of positive tilt to the mid-week trough. Thus have gone with a
model blend since no one model`s variance stood out as more right
than another. Deep layer shear remains weak through the period.
Severe weather is not expected attm with the storms through the week.