Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231746 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DESPITE AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE KDHT ON THE EDGE OF
ACTIVITY...BUT CONTINUED A VCTS REMARK AT KGUY AND THE ACTIVITY
THERE COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT WILL AGAIN GUST TO NEAR 25KTS.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START THE
FORECAST AT ALL SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM MID-MORNING TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL AID IN MIXING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE
TODAY AS WELL. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID NOT
HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS EXCEPT AT KGUY AFTER
02Z. MADE MENTION OF VCTS THERE TO END THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY OF 40 TO
50 KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM UTAH TODAY TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  DEEPENING TROF TO ITS BASE WILL CREATE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DYNAMICS AND
COLD AIR FROM TROF WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.  HAVE EXPANDED AREA OF POPS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS 700 MB THETA-E AXIS ALSO
MOVES EAST.  STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT.  AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET ALSO MOVES MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IN
RECENT NIGHTS.

DRY WEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH NEXT SYSTEM CAUSING
FLOW TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY PRODUCING DRY
WINDS FOR THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY.

DRY FLOW CONTINUES AS NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHWEST U.S. ON
THURSDAY.  THIS SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO OFFER VERY GOOD
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN FOR THE PANHANDLES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF ENSEMBLES DEPICTION OF PROLONGED GULF FLOW
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT GREENUP HAS KEPT FUELS MOIST.  METEOROLOGICALY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ON TUESDAY...METEOROLOGICALY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT
AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH PREVAIL.  AT THIS POINT...DO
NOT EXPECT FUELS TO BE DRY ENOUGH FOR DANGEROUS FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.  03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  55  85  50  83 /  10  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  85  58  86  50  80 /  10  20   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              82  47  80  46  78 /  20  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  85  60  86  52  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              86  55  86  50  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  83  53  86  50  84 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               81  58  86  54  85 /   5   5   5   5   0
DALHART TX                 83  48  83  47  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  85  53  84  49  80 /  20  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                83  54  85  49  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                83  60  86  52  82 /   5  20   5   5   0
PAMPA TX                   82  58  85  52  83 /  10  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                81  59  86  55  86 /   0   5  10   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              82  59  86  56  89 /   0   0  10   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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