000
FXUS64 KAMA 141734
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Although the general forecast is on track for the isolated to
scattered showers to move through the Panhandles, post frontal
winds have been bumped higher, and timing has sped up from the
previous forecast. Right now the line of showers is expected to
impact the southern and eastern Panhandles. The western Panhandles
look like they may be on the dry side of things. It looks like
the front will be completely through the Panhandles and exit to
the southeast by 10pm this evening, and therefore POPs have been
removed thereafter, with a trend toward clearing skies. Winds will
be quite breezy with sustained 25 to 35 mph winds expected for a
few hours. Right now winds look like they will remain below
advisory criteria, but will look into this closer and issue
another update if things change.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will persist through the 18Z TAF period. Winds
will be mainly out of the southwest at around 15-20 kts with gust
up to 30 kts until a cold front passage starting at GUY around
00Z. Winds will shift out of the north around 25 kts gusting as
high as 40 kts. DHT will follow with the same winds around 1Z,
and AMA will follow with slightly lower winds 20-25 kts gusting
around 35 kts at 02Z. Shower activity will be mainly around AMA,
but right now confidence is not high enough for -TSRA, a TEMPO
for -RA will remain through 22Z. Should conditions change or
confidence increase, will amend AMA TAFS. While winds will
gradually diminish behind the front, all TAF sites are not
expected to fall below 15 kts until after 12Z. Skies should be
mostly clear at all TAF sites shortly after the frontal passage,
and remain that way through the end of the TAF period.

Hoffeditz/Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Overall a quiet forecast package outside of the frontal passage
and precipitation chances today/tonight. Northwestern parts of the
forecast area are going to be close to freezing temperatures but
should stay above freezing.

In the upper levels, a trough will pass through central parts of
CONUS today. An associated cold front will begin to pass through the
forecast area late this afternoon/early evening. Wind speeds will
be on the breezy side behind the front with speeds around 25 mph
and gusts around 45 mph as a strong pressure gradient sets up this
afternoon. Precipitation chances will linger around all day and
tonight for mostly eastern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area. There isn`t a lot of instability around until later
this afternoon ahead of the cold front, so thunderstorm chances
will be limited until later today, but really the higher amounts
of instability are across southeastern parts of the forecast area.
Thunderstorm chances will be best to the southeast, but severe
weather should be limited today/tonight. There could certainly be
some strong storms but widespread severe weather doesn`t look
likely.

Temperatures behind the front will get down into the low to mid
30s for a good portion of the forecast area Saturday night.
Northwestern parts of the forecast area will be close to freezing
but currently do not have any freezing temps in the forecast.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  39  65  36  70 /  20  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  89  39  65  36  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              81  35  63  37  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  83  41  68  39  72 /  20  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              85  39  65  37  73 /  10   5   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  83  40  65  35  70 /  20  10   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               86  42  67  39  69 /  20  30   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 84  37  64  36  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  85  38  65  37  72 /  10   5   0   0   0
Hereford TX                82  40  65  34  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                86  42  66  35  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   83  40  64  36  70 /  20  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                88  44  68  38  69 /  30  30   5   0   0
Wellington TX              88  47  70  39  70 /  20  40   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/36/89/24