Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the start of the 18Z TAF cycle but
confidence declines as we move into the evening hours due to
convective chances. The general thought on the next round of
convection will come in two primary areas; S. and SE. Texas
Panhandle and the NW. Texas and W. Oklahoma Panhandles. Both areas of
convection are anticipated to being relatively around the same time,
21Z to 23Z, and expected to persist into the late evening hours. Have
carried PROB30 groups for KAMA and KDHT due to them being near the
periphery of the two storm areas while going prevailing SHRA for GUY
at 22Z. Any storm that develops this afternoon will have the
potential for heavy downpours which can easily drop visibilities into
the LIFR range for a short duration.

Left mention of precip out of the terminals after 9Z as there looks
to be a break in activity during the morning hours. Another round of
convection will be possible late tomorrow morning/tomorrow afternoon
but confidence on timing is too low to mention at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 439 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

Upper trough over the central Rockies and Four Corners region will
track slowly east today and tonight towards the Panhandles. A cold
front over southwest Kansas and southeastern Colorado will push
slowly south and east today into the Oklahoma Panhandle and then into
the Texas Panhandle by late tonight or early Thursday. The front
should become stationary across the Texas Panhandle by late Thursday
before starting to push slowly south again Thursday night and early
Friday. Convection chances will increase through the end of the week
with the possibility for some storms to become strong to marginally
severe this afternoon and this evening...and again Thursday afternoon
and evening. Main threats will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts to
around 60 mph and hail up to quarter size.

Abundant low level Gulf moisture remains in place over the Panhandles
today ahead of a pre-frontal surface trough now moving southeast
across the northwestern portions of the forecast area. Ahead of the
pre-frontal surface trough...surface dew points remain in the 60s
while behind the surface trough...dew points are in the 50s. Model
soundings forecasting PWATs in the 75th percentile for August today
through Thursday...therefore locally very heavy rainfall resulting in
flooding or flash flooding issues can be expected. Continued
southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles into the weekend and
early next week will allow for an active weather pattern as abundant
low level Gulf moisture will remain in place. Convection chances will
continue through early next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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