Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270404 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO REASONING USED TO PREPARE FORECAST SIX HOURS AGO.  COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO TREND
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK...AND TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.  OTHERWISE
..HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST CLOUD LAYER AT ALL
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STILL WELL WITHIN VFR RANGE.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...THIS
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY RIDING AROUND IT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COME BACK AROUND THE RIDGE TOMORROW AND
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE HELD UP JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AGAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT...AND HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PERIODS. SOME POPS LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OUT.

BEYOND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY ON ITS STRENGTH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN BECOMES VERY COMPLICATED WITH TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
ERIKA MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SLIDING AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE RIDGES. A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL PATTERN THAT SETS UP. REGARDLESS OF RAIN
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER
SUNDAY. THIS BROUGHT THEM CLOSER TO GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
COMPARED TO BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10


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