Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM THE DAKOTAS TO KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVES TOP
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDINESS INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS FORECAST
AROUND 28 CELSIUS WILL GIVE HIGH TEMPS FROM 97 TO 101 TODAY WITH THE
WARMEST AT HAYS AND MEDICINE LODGE. IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS THICKER
THAN FORECAST THE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT REACH 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD REACH 104 IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT, THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY. SOUTH WINDS OF 12 MPH WILL BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
AND RANGE FROM 72 TO 75 DEGREES. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TO COOL IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW AND
AFFECT KANSAS AT TIMES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IF ANY STORM DO FORM THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
WINDS SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF
AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND
100 WEDNESDAY THEN AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 90S.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS
THEN LOOK TO ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE
HAYS TERMINAL FROM 06Z-08Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  72  99  68 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  98  71  99  69 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  98  72  98  70 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  98  73  99  71 /   0   0  20  20
HYS 100  73  98  68 /   0  10  10  10
P28 100  75 101  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD


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