Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Mid-level flow became northwest this morning ahead of a low that
that is currently centered over northern Nevada. An elongated band
of high clouds in front of this system shows on water vapor
stretching from eastern Colorado into southern Minnesota, has
brought high clouds into the area, as well as well as virga in
our northern counties. Surface lee troughing in Eastern Colorado
and an impressive pressure gradient has caused wind gusts upwards
of 40 mph, especially west of Garden City this afternoon. Wind
will decrease after dark but remain in the 10-20 mph range for
most of the night. Mid to high level clouds will move in tonight,
which will help to keep temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than
last night to lower 20s in far southwestern Kansas, and upper 20s
near Hays.

Tuesday begins our warmup with southwest wind and mostly sunny
skies, allowing temperatures to reach the upper 60s in far
southwestern Kansas and the upper 50s near central Kansas. With
the increased pressure gradient still in place, wind will once
again become breezy Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Valentine`s Day will be beautiful here in Southwest Kansas, with
return flow causing temperatures to warm into the 70s for most of
the area. With the pressure gradient still in tact, wind will
blow from the southwest at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25. Low
relative humidity, especially near the Colorado border will cause
some fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon. Regardless, enjoy
the warm weather while you can. On Thursday, the low that has
been anchored in eastern Colorado the first part of the week will
move southeast, ushering in a cold front late in the day. Right
now, assuming timing doesn`t change, the late day frontal passage
will still allow for temperatures to reach into the lower 60s near
the Oklahoma border to the lower 50s to the north. Behind the
front, the strong pressure rise will cause wind to be gusty
through the night. This system will also bring out next chance for
light precipitation. The ECMWF has the best chance for a shower
once again in Trego and Ellis counties. However, the latest GFS
has backed off of precipitation for our area. I have kept the pops
for Thursday night as is for now.

Friday, cold high pressure returns. The good news is that highs
look to remain in lower 30s; at least they are above freezing.
Warm air advection returns Saturday and Sunday, which will cause a
very welcomed warmup for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR is expected through TAF pd. LLWS will be possible through overnight
and into early morning associated with a LLJ. Otherwise, winds should
decrease tonight 12-20 kt. S-SW 10-20 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  56  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  58  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  63  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  60  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  20  53  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  52  36  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Sugden



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