Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WILL HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF A LEE SIDE
TROUGH NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING UP TO
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PROVIDING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AS CAPPING WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE
ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE HIGHER CAPE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP. A FEW
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE TIME
FRAME IN QUESTION.

THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING
INCREASED FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE. AGAIN, DECENT VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FROM THE LOWS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. EVEN AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE
DAY, HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO THE 90S(F) ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NEAR 100F IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS GIVING WAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, THE COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO CANADA IS PROJECTED TO BE
STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH, GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS H5 VORT MAXIMA CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO OUR
NORTH, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY AS
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT WITH PW VALUES
UPWARD OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF A SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES TO AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
80S(F) FOR THE MOST PART, PARTICULARLY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
LIKELY AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ABOUT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BACK UP A LITTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING BACK A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP
INTO THE 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES NEAR THE SURFACE
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 20KT TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  97  68  86 /  10  40  50  40
GCK  72  95  66  83 /  20  30  40  40
EHA  70  95  65  82 /  20  40  50  40
LBL  75  98  68  86 /  20  40  50  40
HYS  75  95  67  83 /  20  20  50  20
P28  75 100  71  90 /  10  30  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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