Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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126
FXUS63 KDDC 260004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
704 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Stubborn wraparound stratus slowly eroding from west to east this
afternoon, but may hold all day across parts of the easternmost
counties. Temporary shortwave ridge axis will spread over SW KS
late this afternoon and this evening, with several hours of
pleasant weather, a clear sky and light NE winds.

Next strong shortwave, near Las Vegas currently, races quickly
east tonight, approaching SW KS by 7 am. Upon its approach, winds
will veer SEly and become gusty overnight. With this moistening
upslope flow, stratus will quickly expand back westward again
through sunrise Sunday. Have high confidence in this stratus
evolution, less confidence on the extent of fog. Included areas of
fog across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA for now, and will advise
this evening`s shift to monitor. With clouds, moisture and SE
winds, temperatures again tonight well above normal, in the upper
30s and lower 40s.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming more likely in
the afternoon. Closed low and shortwave move directly over SW KS
through 7 pm. With associated cooling midlevel temperatures (-21C
at 500 mb), scattered convective rain showers and isolated thunder
are expected by afternoon. Coverage will favor the eastern 1/2 of
the zones, given progged lift ahead of progressive shortwave. Some
strong storms are possible across the SE zones in proximity to the
Oklahoma border Sunday afternoon, closest to the instability axis.
Primary threat of severe weather is expected to remain relegated
to Oklahoma. With morning fog, plenty of clouds, an easterly wind
component and afternoon showers, forecasted temperatures may be
too warm. Kept the inherited forecast of mainly 60s Sunday
afternoon, but wouldn`t be surprised if many locales are
restricted to the 50s.

Rain coverage is expected to improve across the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA for several hours Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Exciting forecast trends in the long term, as all model guidance
is converging on a very wet pattern for SW KS, Tuesday through
Thursday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are
anticipated.

Model timing continues to exhibit consistency amidst an active
parade of systems crossing North America.

Monday will be dry, as the next shortwave ridge axis between
cyclones passes overhead. Quite pleasant, with a mostly sunny sky,
light winds, and highs in the 60s. Monday would be an excellent
day for work in the yard or garden, before the anticipated rain
arrives Tuesday.

Intense closed low near Grand Canyon, Arizona Tuesday morning will
take a more southerly track, with the 12z ECWMF placing a 555 dm
upper low in the vicinity of Albuquerque Tuesday evening. With
this southerly track, and the associated surface low developing
on the W TX South Plains, the threat of severe weather will remain
relegated to W TX to our south, with perhaps an elevated hail risk
for the our southern zones Tuesday afternoon. Assuming widespread
convection to our south doesn`t rob the influx of moisture,
overrunning rain is likely in SW KS in a cool stable surface
environment. Model blended pop grids are in the likely/definite
category and are clearly warranted. Kept thunder mention confined
to the southern zones Tuesday afternoon.

Strong closed low only slowly meanders to the northern Texas
panhandle by late Wednesday. Waves of rain will result on
Wednesday, moving south to north, moderate to heavy at times.
Again, surface based storms in the warm sector should stay
confined to Oklahoma, but can`t rule out elevated storms producing
marginal hail SE zones. This will be the coolest day in the rain
cooled air; 50s in the grids are almost certainly too warm, likely
ending up in the 40s.

This cyclone finally gets the boot on Thursday, ejecting to the
Missouri river valley. in response to the next strong shortwave
diving into the Great Basin. Again, models displaying excellent
agreement on timing. Thursday afternoon and Friday will be dry
under the transitory shortwave ridge.

Even more opportunities for rain appear evident next weekend.
12z ECMWF tracks this next cyclone very much like its predecessor.
through Arizona and New Mexico. This would again put SW KS in
prime real estate to soak up more beneficial rains by April 2nd.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

As one storm system moves out, another is quick on its heels. The
low level wind flow will become east-southeasterly, which is a
favorable upslope direction for low stratus redevelopment. The
main question is where the corridor of low stratus will be most
concentrated. It appears GCK and DDC stand the best chance for
more prolonged IFR conditions. Onset of IFR looks to be in the
09-12z time frame, due to both lower ceiling and visibility. It is
unclear how dense any fog may be, as there is conflicting signals
in some of the more reliable short term models, with one of the
most reliable visibility models (WRF-ARW) not showing any fog
development at all. This is quite possible as much of the deep
moisture has been pushed well to the southeast of our area,
however, as temperatures fall to the lower 40s by early Sunday
morning, even slight moist advection would lead to reduced
visibility. IFR/MVFR ceiling will likely hold tough through the
day Sunday, especially GCK and DDC terminals. Any precipitation
should hold off until just after this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  64  40  66 /   0  40  60   0
GCK  39  65  37  67 /  10  40  40   0
EHA  39  63  37  67 /   0  30  10   0
LBL  40  66  39  69 /   0  30  20   0
HYS  37  62  40  62 /   0  50  60  10
P28  39  67  45  65 /   0  40  80  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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