Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221953
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

All quiet along the western Kansas front tonight. Lee troughing will
continue through the short term domain. A 40-50 kt 850-hPa low level
jet will develop overnight. The main impacts from this will be to
the aviation community with low level wind shear. Otherwise, at the
surface, winds will remain elevated through the overnight (10-20 mph
on average). Lows tonight will be fairly mild and in the lower 50s.
No precipitation is expected tonight and any activity will remain well
west of the forecast district. For tomorrow, winds will take on a more
downslope component from the SSW/SW. 850-hPa temperatures increase
into the lower 20s. Mixing down supports sfc temps Saturday in the lower
80s. Don`t think RHs will be low enough for Red Flag criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

The CAMs are still indicating storms to break out along the trough
tomorrow evening. Forecast soundings show a mixed profile with considerable
DCAPE. Have the highest pops along the northwestern and spreading to
the northern zones. Roughly Johnson to Hays. Storms could reach to almost
severe levels. Think the main threat is convective outflows of 50 to
60 mph. There might be some hail as well up to 1" as the LHP is forecasting
some higher amounts. The next shot at convection comes Sunday evening.
The NAM backs up the dryline in the evening. The main question is if
storms will form in the first place. The 4 km NAM does have storms just
southeast of Barber county. CAPE and shear will be more significant
and some of the forecast soundings do suggest a low tornado threat for
Barber county as the LLJ strengthens in the 00Z-03Z window. Again, the
main question is if a storm will be there in the first place. LHP values
are supportive of hail size up to baseballs, should a storm develop
Sunday evening. Monday should be a down day as far as convection is
concerned. Attention then turns to Tuesday for storm activity. There
is some trend in NWP data to suggest the dryline and warm front will
be east and north of the forecast district, respectively. The boundaries
will be critical in where the highest tornado threat will be. The 12Z
EC has backed off on the eastward extension of the dryline. Something
to watch over time and see how model trends evolve. Pattern recognition
and analogs still suggest tornadoes and giant hail. Would like to recall
April 14, 2012. Models showed the dryline to the east. On the day of,
the dryline and resultant supercells were much farther west. Again,
something to watch. Bottom line, tornadoes and softball size hail could
easily come into the picture Tuesday evening across portions of Kansas
and Oklahoma. Please keep up to date with the forecast as we can fine
tune all the mesoscale details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Overnight LLWS will be possible as
the LLJ cranks up to 40-50 kt. Otherwise, southerly winds will continue
from this afternoon through the pd, although become SSW by noon tomorrow.
Magnitudes will increase 25-35 kt as well.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  84  56 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  76  52  85  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  78  53  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  52  83  57 /   0   0   0  40
P28  76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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