Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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980
FXUS63 KDDC 181858
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
158 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This afternoon through mid evening...

Numerous severe thunderstorms, including supercells with tornadoes,
the main concern. Convective-allowing models are showing an
interesting signal of blowing up convection all across the very
unstable warm, moist sector, and not just in the convergence zones
along the warm front and dryline. Even though the tornado risk is
high just about everywhere southeast of a Meade to Dodge City to La
Crosse line, it appears to be particularly high along the slowly
retreating warm front, which as of 1750z extended from roughly Meade
to just south of Dodge City to somewhere between Great Bend and
Pratt. The front will likely not move very much farther north by the
time convection fires. There may be multiple rounds of severe storms
over any one location, too, and the entire severe weather threat
should continue through about 01-02z (8 or 9pm CDT) when a wave
along the surface front finally pushes far enough east allowing to
push southeast, effectively pushing any remaining severe weather
threat off into central and south central KS.

Late tonight into tomorrow...
The cold front will stall out late tonight into tomorrow along
roughly a Hutchinson to Coldwater to Gage line, as it awaits another
jet streak rounding the base of the slow-moving upper trough.
Development of another severe weather episode appears likely just
east of this front again tomorrow early to mid afternoon. South
central Kansas zones would have the greatest risk, most likely
Coldwater to Pratt and points east of there. Elsewhere, there will
likely be numerous other showers and thunderstorms west and north of
the surface front with a significant amount of lift tied to the
upper low as it finally comes out during the day tomorrow.
Temperatures have been lowered some to account for abundance of
clouds, showers, and thunderstorms west of the front. East of the
front, afternoon temperatures should still reach upper 70s to around
80, which will build fairly high instability for aggressive surface-
based storms, including a supercell or two.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

We enter a quieter period severe weather wise this weekend going
into next week. Mean trough axis over the central CONUS will keep
effective surface front well to the south of Kansas. A northwest
flow perturbation early next week may produce some showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday/Sunday Night, but there will be only
very marginal moisture in place. Monday, a more organized
thunderstorm threat exists, although mainly just south of Kansas.
Overall, generally cooler and drier going into the last week of
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Severe storms will affect terminals, especially DDC and HYS, late
this afternoon through the mid evening hours. After that, the cold
front will push south and IFR ceilings will develop late tonight,
affecting all terminals (earlier and longer farther north at HYS).
The front will not push very far east tomorrow with more
thunderstorms expected at DDC and HYS in the early to mid
afternoon hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  55  70  44 /  60  60  60  40
GCK  72  52  65  41 /  20  30  50  40
EHA  76  48  66  41 /  20  10  50  40
LBL  80  52  73  43 /  20  10  50  30
HYS  67  54  63  43 /  70  70  80  60
P28  80  61  78  49 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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