Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260934
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR IN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY WARMED BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AT
DODGE CITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER BOTTOMING OUT AT 30
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ADDITIONAL MECHANICAL MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
HAD A COOL BIAS THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS SO I HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AGAIN
TONIGHT GIVEN THE WARMER AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. I BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS A WARM PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON THIS DAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY, AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 10-12 KNOTS BY 12Z AND THEN SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO BY MID MORNING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL
HELP PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH OR
SO WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  36  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  34  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  35  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD


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