Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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838
FXUS63 KDDC 201725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1125 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Strong NW winds across SW KS this afternoon, with frequent gusts
in the 35-40 mph range. Peak gust observed at Garden City so far
has been 44 mph. With full sun and excellent mixing, strong gusts
will continue through about 4 pm, followed by rapid weakening
through sunset. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will
continue through sunset with the gusty winds and continued dry
advection. Any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged this
afternoon.

Tonight...Clear. Winds back to light west/SW overnight at less
than 10 mph. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 20s
from Syracuse to Garden City to the upper 30s in eastern Barber
county. A downslope wind component expected overnight will keep
overnight temperatures again several degrees above late February
normals.

Tuesday...Sunny, very warm and spring-like, again. Kept sky grids
at zero, with no clouds expected. Weak lee troughing east of the
Rockies will promote a gentle SWly downslope breeze of 10-20 mph.
Much less wind than observed Monday, and atmosphere warms strongly
again with 850 mb temperatures ranging from +14C east to +20C
west. Forecasted highs several degrees above the MOS guidance,
with mid to upper 70s for all zones (25-30 degrees above normal).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Westerly down slope flow will improve Tuesday and Wednesday as an
upper level ridge axis moves across the Central Plains. 850mb to
800mb temperature trends indicated highs will be mainly in the
middle 70s on Tuesday with 80 degree temperatures being possible
in portions of western Kansas on Wednesday.

A cold front will drop south into northern Kansas late
Wednesday/Wednesday night as an upper level trough rotates around
the upper ridge axis and crosses the Northern Plains. As this
surface cold front drops into southwest Kansas early Thursday some
cooler air will return to north central and portions of western
Kansas. South of this front however highs once again will climb
into the 70 to 80 degree range.

Winds will also be on the increase on Thursday as an area of low
pressure deepens across southeast Colorado in response to the next
approaching upper level trough . A surface boundary will lift
back north as a warm front Thursday night as the deepening surface
low crosses western Kansas. Precipitation chances will increase
late Thursday and especially Thursday night as warm moist air gets
lifted north for of the warm front late Thursday and then will
wrap around the deepening surface low as it tracks east across
western Kansas Thursday night. Models differing on the track of
this surface low Thursday night and as a result confidence is not
high on where the better lift will be located due to the improving
850mb to 700mb frontogenisis across northern Kansas or southern
Nebraska and ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough.
Despite the differences in the models it currently appears that
this area of enhanced lift will be near and north of the Nebraska
border. Temperature profiles in this area also supports rain will
be possible late Thursday but this precipitation will change over
to all snow early Thursday night.

Strong gusty north winds can also be expected behind a cold front
as it crosses western Kansas Thursday night into Friday. These
strong winds will be the main hazards for western Kansas since the
better chances for precipitation will be to our north. Based on
the tight pressure gradient forecast across western Kansas along
with strong winds in the 900mb to 850mb level wind speeds of 30 to
35 mph will be possible at times early Friday. Am a little
concerned that the forecast temperatures on Friday may be a little
too warm given the cold air advection advertised and possible
cloud cover in the north.

Cooler, more seasonal temperatures are likely next weekend as
high pressure builds across the plains on Saturday. There may even
be another chance for rain or snow Sunday night into Monday as
another upper level trough crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR/SKC through this TAF forecast period. Strong NW winds will
impact aviation operations through this afternoon, with gusts of
30-35 kts, strongest at GCK/LBL. Winds will weaken rapidly at
sunset/00z Tue, and back to light W/SW overnight at less than 10
kts. Much less wind expected on Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  34  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  68  27  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  34  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  69  32  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  69  36  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  39  76  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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