Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1110 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016



.AVIATION.../For the 18z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. West/northwest
winds will subside this evening. Light southerly or variable winds
will occur tonight. Tomorrow morning a cold front will move into
northwest Oklahoma shifting the winds to northerly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1038 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

Decreased surface dewpoints this afternoon in most locations.
Removed morning rain chances in southeastern Oklahoma. Increased
highs 1-3 degrees today.

Dry and breezy weather will occur this afternoon which will
increase wildfire danger.

Latest radars indicated light echoes across parts of southern
and southeastern Oklahoma as of 1030 am. Most, if not all, of
this was not reaching the ground due to drying below cloud base.

Based on latest model guidance, especially the HRRR and RAP,
and surface observations, decreased surface dewpoints across the
entire area today and this evening.

Most mid and high level cloud cover is expected to clear out this
afternoon which will allow for a good amount of sunshine. Thus, highs
should have no problem getting into the 60s across much of the
area this afternoon.

Products will be updated shortly.


Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will occur
this afternoon due to dry and breezy weather.

Surface humidity values will be lower this afternoon than
previously forecast.

Conditions will approach critical levels this afternoon
especially across western north Texas where surface winds will be
strongest. For now, will not issue a Red Flag Warning as surface
winds may slowly decrease this afternoon and as latest ERC
(Energy Release Component) analysis across western north Texas
indicates below average conditions for this time of year. Will
closely monitor.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

Ongoing showers/storms across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas are expected to shift eastward this morning. Expect
convection to be east of Atoka County by mid-morning. Gusty
westerly winds in the wake of this morning`s system will result in
elevated fire weather conditions across parts of western north
Texas this afternoon. Please see the Fire Weather section below
for more details.

Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is expect for the next several
days. An embedded shortwave on the periphery of a broad cut-off low
across the Northern Plains will allow for dry frontal passage on
Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be slightly cooler (though still above
average), but even colder weather is expected on Wednesday with
continued cold air advection. Light and variable winds may allow
many locations to see a freeze Thursday morning, with a potential
hard freeze across northern locations. A return to southerly winds
should warm temperatures slightly on Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, the forecast confidence is low for late Friday
into the weekend. The forecast continues to hinge on the eventual
evolution of a closed-low across the southwest. The 28/00Z ECMWF
is now a significant outlier, indicating a more progressive low
and a colder temperature profile. This latest ERC (Energy Release
Component) analysis across western north Texas indicates below
average conditions for this time of year.olution would indicate
winter weather will be possible Saturday morning and even more so
late Saturday into Sunday as the low lifts northeastward--placing
parts of the area in the wrap around precipitation zone. However,
the 28/00Z GFS/GFS Ensemble Mean/CANADIAN/DGEX suggest the low
will cut-off farther west and that the temperature profile will be
warmer, reducing the potential for winter weather.

For now, continued to keep the forecast simple with rain across
the southeast and rain/snow mixture to the northwest Saturday and
Sunday morning. Trended low temperatures slightly warmer Saturday
morning based on most models indicating a warmer profile, which
shifts the rain/snow mixture farther northwest. The bottom line is
the forecast will continue to evolve with any potential impacts
too early to determine. Either way, expect a cloudy/chilly weekend
with at least some scattered showers possible.


Fire Weather...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon across parts of western north Texas. Currently, the
strongest westerly winds are forecast late morning into the early
afternoon--coincident with the strongest 925-850 mb winds. Surface
to 850 mb wind speeds are expected to decrease by mid to late
afternoon as relative humidity values approach ~20%. In addition,
the latest ERC (Energy Release Component) analysis across western
north Texas indicates below average conditions for this time of
year. Therefore, based on the slightly offset wind/relative
humidity forecast and the ERC analysis, opted to not issue a Red
Flag Warning for now.



Oklahoma City OK  65  39  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  37  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  44  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           63  32  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  35  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  46  67  38 /  10   0   0   0




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