Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 160516
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1116 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION... /For the 06z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail. Southwest winds will strengthen
during the afternoon before decreasing during the evening and
backing slightly to more southerly.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After a seasonable day today, warmer temperatures are expected
tomorrow with a return to southerly winds and as a low-level
thermal ridge develops across the Southern Plains.

A mid-level closed-low is expected to track across Oklahoma/north
Texas late Friday; however, limited ascent and moisture suggests
only low precipitation chances--perhaps across southeast Oklahoma.

By Saturday morning, there is some evidence that some drizzle
and/or fog may develop--especially across southeast Oklahoma--in
association with some isentropic ascent/low-level moisture
advection.

By Sunday afternoon into Monday, a closed-low and increasing
isentropic ascent are expected to influence the Southern Plains.
Some elevated instability indicates there could be some embedded
thunder. However, the severe weather risk is limited as low to
mid-level flow is forecast to be unidirectional and meridional.
Forecast precipitable water values will be >1.25", which is
around the climatological maximum for this time of year.
Therefore, efficient/heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard
Sunday into Monday.

There is some uncertainty how quickly the closed-low will shift
eastward, so some lingering showers are expected on Tuesday.
These showers may even linger across southeast Oklahoma on
Wednesday.

No significant cold fronts are expected through the forecast
period. Therefore, temperatures are expected to remain above
average.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  34  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         53  32  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  33  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  31  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  32  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         55  36  62  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/12



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