Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 300911
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE HOT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD REACH 30 C. MAX HEAT INDICES
WED WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HEAT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK
RESPECTIVELY. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN OK THU AM...AS A MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK AS THIS OCCURS. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THURS NIGHT...BUT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY OVER OK.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT THURS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AND THE 4TH AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND OK REMAINS UNDER THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE OVERNIGHT FRI THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPACTS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW RIGHT NOW WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING...LOCATION...AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND GREATLY ON EACH
PREVIOUS DAY`S MOIST CONVECTION/MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  75  96  76 /   0   0   0  30
HOBART OK         98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  76  97  78 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           97  75 100  73 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     98  79  97  76 /  10   0  30  20
DURANT OK         95  74  93  75 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03


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