Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 192051
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather through the
end of this week with only isolated chances of showers/storms.

On Wednesday, heat index values are forecast to be
near heat advisory critera across north central Oklahoma.
Consequently, went ahead and extended the heat advisory through
tomorrow afternoon. Both the NAM and GFS erode any MLCIN in the
afternoon. The latest GFS even has a QPF signal across eastern
Oklahoma. Therefore, anticipate at least isolated showers and
storms once again tomorrow afternoon.

The chance of showers/storms looks lower for Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday as the atmosphere is forecast to become more capped as low-
levels slowly dry. Temperatures will be hotter Friday and
Saturday with warmer 850 mb/low-level thermal fields. However,
slightly drier air may mitigate heat index values from becoming
too excessive.

For Sunday and beyond, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that
the mid-level ridge will weaken/retrograde with a weakness/lowered
heights across the Plains. Consequently, temperatures may cool
slightly with at least a slight chance of showers/storms starting
Sunday. The latest ECMWF has backed off a highly amplified ridge
to the west. So the chance of signficant/widespread rain has
decreased.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  98  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  97  76  96 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     019-020-026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

30/10


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