Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 120350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Mild and breezy conditions are in place this afternoon, with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across much of the
area. Drier air across northwest Oklahoma has led to elevated fire
weather conditions there, which will continue for the next few
hours until early evening when relative humidity values recover
into the 30s and 40s(%).

Fire weather will once again be an issue on Tuesday as an even drier
airmass pushes into western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Luckily
winds are expected to be a bit lighter as a weak cold front pushes
into at least northwestern Oklahoma before mixing northward later in
the day. The worst fire weather (near-critical) may develop to the
south of the front across western/southwestern Oklahoma where winds
will stay a bit stronger during the afternoon than further north.
Chances for showers/storms with this front now appear to be to our
east, with our area expected to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

By Wednesday a large trough will begin to deepen across the western
US, with a surface low forecast to deepen to our northwest through
the day. In response, southerly flow will strengthen with a dryline
sharpening across western into central Oklahoma during the
afternoon. To the west of the dryline dry, southwesterly winds will
lead to another day of elevated to near-critical fire weather. To
the east of the dryline, a strong cap will be in place over the
area. Thunderstorm development will be highly conditional (<15%
chance they occur) but enough shear and instability will be in
place for a severe risk if they do. Only a small number of the
latest model guidance initiates convection.

Greater chances for convection will come on Thursday along a cold
front that is forecast to cross the area through the day. The
position of the cold front during the afternoon will determine how
far north and west precipitation chances reach, with the highest
PoPs (60-70%) currently across south-central and southeast
Oklahoma, mainly along and south of the I-44 corridor. Shear and
instability will once again be supportive of severe weather, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards.

Cooler air will filter into the area behind the cold front, but
temperatures will only drop to near or slightly above average Friday
into the weekend. Southwesterly flow will be maintained aloft above
the frontal zone which could lead to occasional shower chances
Friday and Saturday across roughly the southern half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

South wind have diminished more than anticipated this evening.
Still a chance to see some increase overnight and toward morning,
but now expect them to stay at speeds that LLWS now needs to be
added for many sites overnight. Still expect to see MVFR ceilings
develop northward toward morning across south/southeast. These may
linger at DUA through morning before rising to VFR. South to
southwest winds increase Tuesday morning with gusts to near 30kts
through much of the day except across west, where surface trough
will allow surface winds to decrease in the afternoon. Lighter
winds after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  75  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         49  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  52  79  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  77  51  80 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         48  74  58  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30


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