Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 171743 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.AVIATION...17/18Z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Strong
southwest winds this afternoon will be the primary concern for
aviation today, as skies continue to clear, or have cleared. Late
in the period, mid to late morning, Thursday, clouds will
gradually increase across southern into central Oklahoma, with
MVFR ceilings developing late.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1028 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Recently issued a Wind Advisory for the northern half of
Oklahoma. Overall, wind gusts should gradually decrease
across the western part of the advised area through early
afternoon. But gusty winds should continue through the
mid afternoon, especially across north central Oklahoma.
A few wind gusts above 50 mph may occur across Kay/Noble
counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
A tight pressure gradient across Oklahoma and north Texas will
result in a windy morning, followed by a gradual decrease in wind
speeds through the afternoon. Winds will drop off more quickly
toward sunset, with most sites averaging about 10 kt overnight.
As low-level moisture returns from the southeast tomorrow
morning, some stratus will be possible. It is unclear at this time
how much there will be (geographical coverage) and how long it
will last. Confidence in the cloud layer is high enough to mention
it in the TAFs for KOKC and KOUN, but not for other sites. It is
very unlikely that this cloud layer will reach KGAG or KWWR.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The current area of rain/thunderstorms will move east early this
morning, and should be east of our forecast area by about 7 am,
leading to a breezy, but dry day.

On Thursday, low-level moisture will surge back northwest across
our forecast area, setting the stage for another round of severe
thunderstorms. COnditions Thursday afternoon and evening
generally resemble those of this past afternoon/evening, although
with a somewhat more northerly area of the greatest chance of
severe storms.

A cold front will arrive Friday, and there will be yet another
risk of severe storms, mainly along and south of this front. It
appears that the risk will be mainly near/southeast of I-44. As
this system moves slowly southeast, heavy rain will be likely from
southwest Oklahoma to central Oklahoma. Amounts may not be
sufficient for widespread flooding, but some localized flooding
is likely.

Rain finally comes to an end on Sunday, but another wave coming
south across the Plains will bring rain/thunderstorm chances back
into the forecast Monday and Tuesday. With that system, the risk
of severe storms will be substantially lower than those of this
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  85  67  77 /  10  20  40  60
Hobart OK         57  86  64  79 /   0  50  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  63  88  67  81 /   0  50  50  60
Gage OK           53  84  57  75 /   0  30  50  40
Ponca City OK     59  86  66  78 /  10  20  60  60
Durant OK         71  86  67  81 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ004>020-
     024>026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

06/04



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