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000
FXUS64 KOUN 150538
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Removed parts of northwestern Oklahoma from the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe wind gusts (40-70 mph) will continue near the
cold front and storms southeast of an Altus to Norman to Chandler
line through 4 am tonight.

Overall, think the severe wind threat will continue to diminish
due to the air being a bit more stable over southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas (MLCAPE 500-1300 J/kg). However, still cannot
rule out some severe wind gusts. The front should be south of the
Red River east of Wichita Falls and south of Durant no later than
4 am.

Gradient surface winds northwest of the front continue to weaken,
especially in northwestern Oklahoma where skies are mostly clear.
Thus, think surface wind gusts will stay well under 40 mph in
northwestern Oklahoma. Will continue to scale back the Wind
Advisory north to south as the front and area of strongest winds
continue to push south over the next several hours.

Aviation discussion for the the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
Have high confidence of VFR conditions at all sites after 09 UTC.

Before 09 UTC, strong north to northwesterly surface winds along
with brief MVFR/IFR conditions with TSRA will affect locations
near KLAW, KSPS, KOKC, and KOUN. KPNC may have brief MVFR
conditions as well before 09 UTC.

Surface winds will decrease at all locations 09-14 UTC before
increasing again. These winds will then subside 21-01 UTC.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ012-016>019-
     021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

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