Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 211200
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z AT SPS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.  ELSEWHERE....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN KANSAS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES INITIALLY. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...WITH SOME RISK OF FLOODING.

MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT
SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE
FLOODING.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  54  62  58 /  10  60  80  50
HOBART OK         65  52  63  59 /  10  80  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  56  68  63 /  20  70  80  40
GAGE OK           64  49  63  55 /  10  80  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  62  56 /   0  40  70  60
DURANT OK         69  58  67  61 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



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