National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOUN 022045
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK   7  24  17  46 /  70   0  10  10
HOBART OK          5  27  18  49 /  50   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  12  32  22  50 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           -2  25  19  48 /  70   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK      3  20  13  41 /  90   0  10   0
DURANT OK         13  28  23  46 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
     014-016>030-033>040-044-045.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR OKZ004>036-038-040-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>012-
     015-031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/84