Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190902
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OK PANHANDLE SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACH AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA TODAY.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STAYING TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION
MAY CLIP FAR NW PARTS OF THE FA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND MAY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  97  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         95  73  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75 100  75 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           96  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     97  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         95  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/25



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