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000
FXUS64 KOUN 131134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA MOVING EAST OF TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS OVER
TX SPREAD N...BUT SHUD SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.  STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO OK AND TX TODAY AND THIS EVENING
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE...MAINLY CENTRAL OK SITES AND
WILL INCLUDE PROB30 THERE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WELL INTO
THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS AOA 30 KTS. LOWER CIGS WILL REDEVLOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NW OK
LATE AS PRECIP AREA SPREADS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD NW OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS WELL AS FROST/FREEZE AND
WINTRY PRECIP THREAT. SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF LEAD S/W EJECTING OUT
OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD
THIS MORNING WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KS/CO EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NRN OK THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE SOUTH INTO SRN PARTS OF
THE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN OK THIS
MORNING. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS NEAR THE DRYLINE
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL OK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AS PER SWODY1. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WX
THREAT...FIRE WX WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR SWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
SOARING TEMPS AND LOW RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH STRONG SW
WINDS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES BEING MET AND
WILL KICK FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD/WIND AND WINTER WX POTENTIAL TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAIN AREA OF SHOWER/TSTMS FOCUSED NEAR THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BACK INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OK AS
MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME MIXED WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF NW OK LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS COLUMN COOLS WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER. DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS AND
MARGINAL AIR TEMPS. PRECIP WILL END DURING THE MORNING MONDAY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES
EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  38  47  27 /  50  40  30   0
HOBART OK         86  36  49  24 /  10  10  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  41  52  27 /  20  20  10   0
GAGE OK           71  32  46  24 /  30  50  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     78  35  46  26 /  80  30  40   0
DURANT OK         76  45  50  31 /  50  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ021>023-033>038-044.

TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

03/02