Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180803
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
303 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper high pressure will persist over the region through the rest of
the work week. This will continue the hot and dry conditions across
the fa. High temperatures are expected to gradually warm a degree or
two each day through Friday with the hottest temperatures on Friday.
Highs from the mid 90s to triple digits are expected across the area
for the later half of the week. Heat index values may also approach
advisory criteria in some locations. Even if conditions do not reach
advisory levels, the heat will remain a problem with overnight low
temperatures staying warm, allowing only minimal relief/recovery at
night.

0Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF differ for the weekend into early next
week. The GFS continues to show the upper ridge over the region
breaking down and eventually re-developing over the western U.S.
next week. The GFS also shows a front moving into the region late
this weekend into early next week with shortwave(s) affecting the
region which would bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
parts of the fa this weekend into next week. The rain, clouds, and
front would also probably bring at least a slight relief to the hot
temperatures. The 0Z ECMWF, however, is showing the upper high
continuing to influence the region through the weekend into early
next week. This differs from the previous run and have low
confidence in this scenario for now. If this new scenario of the
ECMWF turns out to be closer to correct, there would be only a low
chance for rain, if any, to parts of the fa and probably very little
relief to the hot temperatures for the area. For now, leaned towards
the GFS for consistency but kept PoPs relatively low until there is
better agreement about what will happen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         99  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           99  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  74  97  74 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/25



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