668
FXUS64 KOUN 061748
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the
week.

- Hot and humid conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

As we start the new week, shifts in the weather pattern will be
subtle. A strong moisture plume continues over the I-35 corridor in
south central Oklahoma, yielding abundant cloud cover and isolated
showers/storms again this afternoon. We`ll see temperatures warm
into the low to mid 90s over the northwest half of Oklahoma where
more clearing is expected, while south central Oklahoma and north
Texas are more limited to the 80s.

A ridge is establishing itself over New Mexico putting us into
northwest flow. CAMs suggest a couple of potential complexes late
this afternoon and tonight. This afternoon would be storms
initiating off a front in southern Kansas, then pushing south into
Oklahoma through the evening (southward extent is uncertain, though
several models have storms reaching the I-40 corridor around mid
evening before dissipating). Then, overnight there is some potential
for a storm complex off the high plains to surge toward northwest
Oklahoma. Both rounds will carry some marginal severe risk
(primarily wind).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Monday will largely be another repeat, with south central diurnal
storms and northern OK overnight MCS potential. Temperatures will
again tend to be at or just below normal (perhaps slightly lower
where cloud cover is more persistent and afternoon showers form).

Models are now showing a shortwave approaching on Tuesday, which
will enhance rain chances somewhat. Otherwise, the pattern continues
to look fairly similar.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

PWATs go down as we enter into mid to late week. Reduced cloud cover
will allow for temperatures to gradually warm (though the forecast
does appear to be coming in slightly cooler than previous runs).
Northwest flow will favor nocturnal storm complexes approaching
northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Our terminals east and south of the I-44 corridor should remain
under MVFR category between 18-21Z as ceilings gradually rise
while eroding stratus will maintain VFR conditions across our
remaining terminals. There is a low probability for current TSRA
coming up from northern TX to affect terminals KSPS & KDUA so have
a PROB30 in place through 22Z. Also low probability for storms
coming down off the Central High Plains later this evening so also
have PROB30 at our northernmost terminals KWWR, KPNC, and KSWO
through 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  89  72 /  10  10  20  10
Hobart OK         92  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  88  73  90  73 /  20  10  20  10
Gage OK           93  66  90  67 /  20  30  20  40
Ponca City OK     91  70  90  70 /  30  20  10  30
Durant OK         89  74  91  74 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68