Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 121740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The September 12-13, 2017 18 UTC TAF discussion follows:


Unrestricted visibility and ceilings will continue through the
TAF period. Broken high clouds (20,000-25,000 ft) from the
remnants of Irma should decrease substantially by tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, generally north to northeast winds will
gradually shift toward the south.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1107 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/

High clouds associated with Irma will continue to overspread much
of the area this afternoon. In response, temps are cooler than
yesterday at this time and the going forecast grids for today
across central and east. Have therefore lowered highs in these
areas a degree or two. Otherwise, some minor tweaks to sky grids
based off latest trends in cloud cover.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/

Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

VFR conditions and generally light surface winds are expected
to continue.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/

Hotter weather returning to the southern Plains will be the main
weather story over the next several days.

Today, increasing high level cloud from Tropical Depression Irma
will continue to move in from the east. Based on latest infrared
satellite imagery, think most models may be underestimating the
depth of this cloud cover. Thus, lowered today`s highs slightly as
readings should be a bit cooler than yesterday. No rain is
expected due to abundant dry air underneath cloud base (below
15000 ft AGL).

Wednesday and Thursday, more sun and warmer conditions can be
expected. Southerly surface winds will increase on Thursday,
especially across western Oklahoma and western north Texas where
wildfire conditions may become elevated.

Thursday night through Saturday, hot and breezy conditions will
continue, which may elevate fire concerns, especially near and
west of a possible dryline in far western Oklahoma and far western
north Texas. Highs well into the 90s seem likely with a few
locations in far western Oklahoma and western north Texas flirting
with the century mark. Went with a dry forecast due to very low
confidence of rain, though various model solutions depicted light
and spotter rainfall amounts during this time frame. A mid level
disturbance may bring enough lift for a few weak high based
showers and thunderstorms to northwestern Oklahoma around daybreak
on Friday, but low level moisture will be rather limited.
Additional isolated shower/storm activity could occur near a
dryline over the Panhandles and/or far western Oklahoma late
Friday afternoon and evening, but capping seems to be rather
strong. Removed rain chances in northwestern Oklahoma Friday night
and kept the area dry during the day on Saturday thinking capping
will be too strong for rain development.

Saturday night, kept low chances for showers and storms over far
northwestern Oklahoma as a weak front may impact these locations
and allow for enough moisture convergence for some rainfall.
Confidence of rain remains quite low due to models having various
frontal placement and as models depicted the strongest lift well north
of Oklahoma with a mid/upper trough over the northern Plains.

Sunday and Monday, generally think hot and dry weather will
continue across the area. Rain chances appear to be quite low
during this time frame, though forecast confidence remains low.
Preferred the latest 00 UTC ECMWF model`s drier solution with
stronger mid/upper level ridging which would promote stronger
capping and subsidence.



Oklahoma City OK  81  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         88  59  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  61  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           89  57  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     83  56  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0




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