Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281733
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL VARY IN SPEED AND DIRECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AS
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
AFFECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERTICAL MIXING. AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OK/N TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE STEADILY N...WITH MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A FEW HOURS OF CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT
WILL OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW IN FAR N OK...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING COOLER AIRMASS. THE CLOUD LAYER IS PROBABLE AT KPNC...BUT
NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO MENTION AT KGAG/KWWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES AND ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED NEAR OR BREAKING RECORD HIGHS AGAIN
TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW THIS AFTN. THE WARM TEMPS... LOW
HUMIDITIES...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH THIS AFTN. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE AN AREA
FORECASTED WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSE... WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OK. THIS IS
WHERE WIND SPEEDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MEETING CRITERIA FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
/ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST/ WHICH WILL CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN TODAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HUMIDITY TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT SO WILL NOT ISSUE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES... BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERN IN FWF AND OTHER
PRODUCTS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO
JANUARY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO
COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT MAY DROP ENOUGH IN DIURNALLY COOL
TIMES OF NIGHT TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NORTH. OVERALL
THERE WERE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  43  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         77  42  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  45  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  37  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  40  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         78  48  60  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23/23


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