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000
FXUS64 KOUN 042345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX SET OF TAFS HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT MUCH OF
TONIGHT TO REMAIN VFR WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE
WEST. A FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS TAF SITES FROM NW TO
SE...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO ALL TAF SITES BY
17Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 12Z THROUGH 21Z
FROM NW OK TO CENTRAL OK...WITH INITIAL PRECIP TYPE FZDZ FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A RASN MIX. PRECIP WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS...AND
COLD SFC AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS. MIX OF -RASN
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WILL REFRAIN FROM
INCLUDING PRECIP IN KLAW/KSPS TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
LIKLIHOOD OF PRECIP IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MARCH SUN HAS MELTED A LARGE PORTION OF THE ICE/SNOW THAT FELL
LAST WEEKEND. THAT...PLUS INCREASING CLOUD COVER...SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT LESS COLD THAN THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER...THE SAME CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT WARMING
TOMORROW...AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. DEPENDING ON THE STARTING TIMES...MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA WILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO CONVERT IT TO RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE
GROUND MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FREEZING RAIN BEYOND THE
TIME THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY.

OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH ICE AND SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. THIS...PLUS THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...ARGUES AGAINST ANY
ADVISORIES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. IF LATER UPDATES RESULT IN
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF ICE OR SNOW...AN ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED.

AFTER A RAPID WARM-UP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEKEND. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE...AND WHATEVER
FALLS FARTHER NORTH WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT SNOW.

THE STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PARTIALLY CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  40  25  36  24 /   0   0  50  20
HOBART OK         50  28  39  23 /   0   0  60  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  31  44  27 /   0   0  30  10
GAGE OK           47  27  33  20 /   0  10  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  21  35  17 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         45  25  47  30 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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