Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 120331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
931 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

There is a jagged western edge to the otherwise extensive cloud
cover over Oklahoma/north Texas. West of these clouds, surface
relative humidities are generally very close to 100%, and there is
some scattered weak moisture advection. As a result, there have
been a few reports of fog, with patches of dense fog in western
Oklahoma. All indications are that fog will continue for much of
the night before somewhat drier air can make it into this region.
A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary if dense fog becomes
more widespread than currently expected.

We have made a few minor adjustments to the forecast this evening
to account for the latest conditions and trends, including the


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/

VFR conditions across west expected to drop back into MVFR and
eventually IFR later tonight to go with the remaining sites. Some
patchy drizzle and fog will also continue overnight across much of
the area. A weak cold front will move south tonight with a shift
to north winds behind the front. A very slight improvement in
conditions expected through the early afternoon hours on Sunday
before skies clear from north to south across at least the
northern half of Oklahoma late in the forecast.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/


Overall, very few changes to the previous forecast.

Main challenge over the next day or two will be: a frontal
passage and subsequent return of the air mass over central and
southern Texas.

A relatively shallow moist layer and isentropic ascent will
result in areas of drizzle through at least the evening hours. So
far today, most of the measurable precipitation has been confined
to western Oklahoma, where the sub-cloud layer was much closer to
the ground. That is slowly changing this afternoon, as the
influence of much drier air to the east is decreasing and some
moistening is occurring from above. Later this evening and
overnight, model soundings suggest that shallow convective
elements may result in light rain showers, especially across the
eastern half of Oklahoma.

As a cold front moves across the area tonight into Sunday, drizzle
or rain chances will end from north to south, with the exception
of far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Late Sunday into Monday, low clouds, drizzle, and light rain showers
will again be possible as the air mass over central and south
Texas advects northward.

Another cold front will move across Oklahoma and north Texas late
Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time, it appears central, south
central and southeast Oklahoma will have better opportunities for
light rain.

A stronger front may arrive around Friday of next week.  This front
may finally push much drier air well south into Texas.


Oklahoma City OK  52  55  44  57 /  20  10  10  20
Hobart OK         51  55  45  60 /  20  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  56  59  49  63 /  10  20  20  20
Gage OK           42  54  40  59 /  10   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     49  55  39  56 /  20   0   0  20
Durant OK         54  63  48  62 /  20  20  10  20




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