Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 151504 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
904 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Removed Kay and Noble counties from any ice headlines. Issued a
Dense Fog Advisory for locations east of a Chandler to Purcell to
Waurika line through noon today. Increased precipitation chances
this morning over western Oklahoma, and slowed down the rise in
surface temperatures today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Ice storm continues in northwestern Oklahoma.

The current Ice Storm Warning/Freezing Rain Advisory headlines
remain in effect until noon. These headlines may need to be
extended beyond noon depending on temperature trends. Most latest
models appeared to be warming the surface temperatures too quickly
today. Will closely monitor. Significant tree and power line
damage appears to have already occurred near Buffalo and Woodward
Oklahoma. Light to moderate rain and freezing rain will continue
across western and northwestern Oklahoma through at least the
morning hours.

Issue the Dense Fog Advisory for the areas mentioned above as
surface visibilities are expected to fall. They have already
fallen to 1/4 mile near Pauls Valley and Ada. For now, only went
until noon with this advisory, but would not be surprised if this
needed to be extended into the afternoon hours. Possible
precipitation developing and moving into the Dense Fog Advisory
area would allow for slightly higher visibilities this afternoon.

Cloud cover and a saturated boundary layer with weak surface winds
will limit heating today. Still believe temperatures will rise
slowly throughout the day today.

Products will be updated soon.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this morning continue to be with regards to
freezing rain as well as fog with the possibility of a few strong
to severe storms this evening.

First off, band of heavier freezing rain across far
northern Oklahoma will move north of the area over the next
couple of hours. We do anticipate another area of rain/freezing
rain to move back into portions of western/northwestern Oklahoma
later this morning, with very little significant precip elsewhere
through the morning hours. Also, temps continue to hover near
freezing and are expected to gradually climb above freezing
across all but northwest Oklahoma by late morning. With this in
mind will drop ice storm warning for portions of central/north
central Oklahoma and transition to a freezing rain advisory.

Areas of fog will also impact much of the area at least through
the morning hours, especially across areas along and southeast of
I-44, where models indicate developing easterly surface winds
will begin to bring in higher dewpoint air west. Will need to
watch this area for the possibility of a dense fog advisory later
this morning.

By this afternoon and tonight, models show a couple of rounds
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area. As
the main storm system comes out and moves across the area
tonight, a few strong to possibly severe storms will be possible,
mainly across southern Oklahoma southward into Texas. Strong
gusty winds will be the main threat along with heavy rainfall.

Beyond Monday, more tranquil weather is expected. There does
appear to be a couple of chances for some rain across parts
of southern/southeastern Oklahoma during the second half of the
week. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and mild conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  42  54  32 /  70  90  10   0
Hobart OK         42  37  50  30 / 100  90   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  40  57  33 / 100  90   0   0
Gage OK           35  32  42  26 / 100  90  20   0
Ponca City OK     41  39  50  30 /  70  90  30   0
Durant OK         58  55  64  38 /  40  90  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ007-012-
     016>018-022-033-034.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014-015-021.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ026-030>032-
     040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

17/03



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