Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 041723
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT OUR POPS ARE TOO HIGH FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO LOWER THEM AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALSO APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY
REPRESENTATIVE...SO NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AT
KPNC OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA COULD AFFECT KGAG EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IN FCST THROUGH 15Z. CONFIDENCE FOR
TERMINAL IMPACTS LATER TODAY FROM TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROAD/DIFFUSE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING
AND PERSISTENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL AREA OF WHERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT IS SIMILAR AMONG SHORT-TERM
MODELS...MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH TEMPORAL CHARACTER AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VERY MANY STORMS
TODAY. AXIS OF BEST STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MENTIONED BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH.

LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING FRONT OVER
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH IT IS LIKELY
OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED. AS IT STANDS AT THIS TYPING...AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY CAN TAKE MORE RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE STATE. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER LARGE AREAS. IF THIS
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN LATER FORECASTS. CONCERNS FOR MAIN-STEM RIVER AND
RESERVOIR FLOODING INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

GFS QUICKER WITH FORECASTING INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE ECM INFLUENCES THE REGION WITH ANOTHER S/WV THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. POPS WERE RETAINED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AS FAST AS GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  72  92  74 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  73  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  93  75 /  10  40  40  10
DURANT OK         92  72  92  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



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