Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 170905
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms, extends
from near Archer City, Texas to Marietta and Durant. Heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will remain likely over the next 1 to 2
hours with some flooding possible near the Red River.  Some
redevelopment to the north has occurred, but expect most of the
convection will be south of the Red River by sunrise. Will also
cancel the Flash Flood watch for parts of central Oklahoma. Most
of the precipitation has moved south of the watch area.

Elsewhere, mainly light winds with low temperature/dewpoint
spreads may result in some light fog by early morning.

The outflow boundary associated with convection this morning,
should help with additional showers and storms this afternoon.
Expect that most of this activity will be over north Texas.

By late evening, higher theta-e air will be transported to the
north as the low level flow increases. At this time, it appears
northwest/west central Oklahoma will have the best chance of
initial storm develop. Overnight, the flow will generally be west
and southwest, so storms may develop northward into Kansas,
similar to the ECMWF. However, the flow is expected to become
northwest by morning as another wave moves across the northern
Plains.

Additional storms may form again Friday night into early Saturday.
However, with a veered and rather weak 85h flow overnight, better
rain and storm chances may be to our east.

Over the weekend into early next week, a ridge will have more
influence on our weather. Afternoon heating may result in
isolated afternoon and early evening storms, but the chance of
widespread areas of precipitation should be rather low.

By Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, another front is expected to
approach northern Oklahoma. This combined with a wave moving
across the central Plains, may bring another round of showers and
storms to at least the northern half of Oklahoma.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  71  93  72 /   0  30  30  40
Hobart OK         93  72  95  72 /   0  30  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  94  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  20
Gage OK           91  68  94  68 /  10  50  40  30
Ponca City OK     88  69  91  69 /   0  30  30  40
Durant OK         93  74  94  73 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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