Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181945
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
245 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Two fronts moving through this week will be the main concern for
this forecast.

Before the return of more active weather, temperatures under the
ridge tomorrow will again rise into the 80s. With a tightening
pressure gradient, the day may also be a bit breezy.

The first of these two fronts will make its way south through the
region Thursday. A few thunderstorms may ride this front during
the morning and afternoon hours, however, its after the front
stalls across southern Oklahoma that we can start expecting more
significant rainfall. With PWATs of greater than an inch and
isentropic lift north of the front, we could see some decent
amounts of rain Thursday night into Friday morning. Ensemble
guidance shows eastern parts of Oklahoma as having the higher
likelihood of heavier rain Thursday night through Friday night.
Flooding will be a concern over this period.

The timing of the second front and any associated convection is
more uncertain as it will depend somewhat on how the mesoscale
situation evolves prior. Right now, it looks like this front is
set to come down sometime Friday evening, resulting in another
round of convection continuing into Saturday morning.

After Saturday, we start to move back into a dry pattern with
temperatures gradually warming back up.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  80  63  72 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         60  83  62  72 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  61  84  65  82 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           61  85  56  70 /   0   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     61  81  60  70 /   0   0  40  30
Durant OK         61  80  64  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/14



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