Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 021703
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SCENARIO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOITER NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK MCV OVER THE TX PH AND WRN OK.
BEHIND THE FRONT... A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/FILL
IN SLOWLY ACROSS KS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H850 FRONT AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE/KS. ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK... LOW 70S DPTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12Z LAMONT SOUNDING IN NRN OK SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS... BUT SFC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BL/MID-LVLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE... AS SUPPORTED BY RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE NMM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY IN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND HAVE
OVERALL... HANDLED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPATIALLY BETTER THAN
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE.

HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH 18/19Z...
EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLY
AS FAR AS SWRN OK TO PONCA CITY... SIMILAR TO THE RECENT HRRR AND
12Z NMM... THOUGH BOTH ARE MORE THAN LIKELY A TAD BULLISH. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NRN OK... NEARER THE BETTER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN... WITH
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK BY 20-21Z FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG... HEFTY VALUES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN... AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY DECREASE AND MOVE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY... WHILE A COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND ERN OK MOVING SE INTO THE AR OZARKS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
NEAR OKC/OUN. THE AFTERNOON TAFS MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THESE
GUSTS BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TSRA MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AT PNC BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OTHER TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER AREA
OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION HAS ALSO JUST DEVELOPED ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS SE OF THE OKC METRO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY MANAGE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN OK AND SE/S OK.

LATER TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
OK...AND THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KT AND MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ~7 C/KM. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS E CENTRAL OK AND MOVE INTO SE OK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL...MID
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY AM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE/E ZONES AS A WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS THESE ZONES. THE SAME STORY WILL
APPLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER A COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO SW KS/NW OK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...BY
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIMIT ANY LOW POPS TO THE FAR NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  88  70 /  40  70  40  50
HOBART OK         91  71  93  70 /  40  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  75  91  73 /  20  30  50  50
GAGE OK           89  66  89  67 /  50  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     92  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  30
DURANT OK         92  73  87  72 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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