Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190413 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...19/06 TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Southerly winds will persist, breezy at times, with scattered to
broken high clouds through much of the period.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

AVIATION...18/00Z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Southerly winds will persist, with some sustained winds around 10
to 15 kts at times through Thursday morning. Few to scattered
cirrus clouds will remain through much of the overnight, with
increasing scattered to broken ceilings through portions of
tomorrow.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus of this forecast is on Saturday, when an upper-
level wave and surface cold front will bring widespread rain and
thunderstorms to the region.

After another mild and breezy day tomorrow, rain chances will
reenter the forecast tomorrow night, as moisture begins to
increase and the low-level jet generates weak isentropic lift over
western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas. The continuing
influx of moisture will generally maintain low rain/elevated
thunderstorm chances through Saturday afternoon.

As a cold front enters northwest Oklahoma Saturday afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the front. Instability
and vertical wind shear will support severe storms. The front is
then expected to continue its advance to the southeast, exiting
our forecast area during the early morning hours of Sunday. The
severe weather risks will initially be hail and damaging winds,
but convert quickly to mainly wind late Saturday evening.

Dry weather will follow for Sunday through the remainder of the
forecast period as northwest flow aloft becomes well established.
A second cold front is forecast to sweep southeast across
Oklahoma/north Texas on Monday night or early Tuesday, but it will
have minimal amounts of moisture to work with, and no
precipitation is currently expected with that front. Post-frontal
temperatures will be fairly close to the seasonal average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  52  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         81  53  78  61 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  82  53  80  62 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           84  51  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     80  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         79  51  82  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/04



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