Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Kept VCSH/-SHRA mention near KOKC, KOUN, KCSM, KWWR, and KGAG
before 00 UTC where confidence of occurrence is high. Otherwise,
did not mention and SHRA or TSRA due to low confidence of
occurrence at any site and differing times.

Areas of MVFR conditions will occur now through 18 UTC Tuesday
across the area, but did not mention at many sites due to low
confidence of occurrence.

A surface cold front will bring increasing north to northwest
surface winds after 06 UTC Tuesday.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Potent s/wv will move over central/southern Rockies today ahead of
main trough, allowing the increase in showers and storms across the
region. Overall instability will be lacking over most areas, with
combination of instability and shear sufficient for strong and
perhaps severe storms over far western Oklahoma and mainly western
north Texas late today and this evening. Current development of
elevated showers and storms across eastern High Plains of NM and
panhandles expected to continue an eastward progression through the
day. Will not rain all day at any one spot, but chances are at least
moderate for rain to impact western half of CWA today. Most storms
that occur expected to stay below severe levels and may be brief as
well. If enough insolation can be realized late today over western
Texas and far southwest portions of CWA, we could see a few severe
storms with winds/hail the concerns. Details contained in latest
day1 outlook from SPC.

In the wake of mentioned trough, a cold front will make its way over
the region tonight and early Tuesday. In wake of the front, cold
upper trough will progress over the Southern Plains which may allow
development of showers and isolated storms through Tuesday afternoon
mainly over central and southeast portions of Oklahoma, with severe
storms unlikely.

Run of cooler than average temperatures forecast to come to an end
by Thursday and Friday as another trough develops to our west. This
will induce strong moisture return with models still consistent on
developing dryline which will flirt with mainly southwest portions
of Oklahoma and western north Texas. West of this dryline,
temperatures well into the 90s appear likely. Exact location and
timing of this dryline and potential frontal intrusions following
passing s/wvs through mentioned trough keeps confidence somewhat low
for next weekend and associated severe weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  55  68  48 /  40  40  30   0
Hobart OK         70  53  69  47 /  80  40  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  58  70  51 /  30  50  40   0
Gage OK           66  51  68  44 /  60  40  10   0
Ponca City OK     73  52  68  47 /  30  30  30  10
Durant OK         73  59  70  51 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/17/17


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.