Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 271711 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and storms are ongoing and will continue to
develop this afternoon with the potential to briefly impact
central and southern TAF sites, however, confidence is not high
enough to mention in any individual TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions
with light and variable winds will prevail throughout the TAF
period.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1108 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Isolated/scattered showers and storms will continue to develop
across parts of the area this afternoon. Locally heavy rain and
gusty winds will be the main concerns. Made some adjustments to
PoPs/WX grids to account for current activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Some
patchy fog around this morning, but expect it to mainly affect
locations south and east of taf sites. Otherwise, scattered storms
around today through tonight, but chances remain too low to mention
at any one site at this point.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The challenge of the day is determining rain chances over the next
several days.

This morning, overall think quiet conditions will occur. Added
patchy fog mention before 9 AM southeast of I-44 where
visibilities may briefly drop in the 1/2-3 miles. Don`t think fog
will become widespread or dense. Latest experimental HRRR runs
have been hinting that a few elevated thunderstorms may form near
or just southeast of I-44 this morning. Not confident this will
occur at all due to the lack of forcing. If storms form, they
would move slowly and be very efficient heavy rainfall producers
in a short period of time. Kept 20% chance of storms this morning
anywhere southeast a Sayre to Alva line, though most, if not all,
areas will remain dry.

This afternoon and evening, additional isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will occur across the area, but pointing
out exactly where and when is tricky due to weak forcing in a
moist and unstable environment. Kept the highest rain chances
40-50% near Atoka and Durant where highest precipitable water
values of 2-2.3" are forecast. Another area where storms may form
is southeastern Kansas south of a currently decaying complex of
storms in Nebraska. If these storms form, they could move into
north central and northeast Oklahoma. Lowest rain coverage is
expected to be across western Oklahoma. Most areas should remain
rainfree.

Any storm today and this evening could produce very heavy rainfall
in a short period of time which could result in flash flooding.
Gusty winds up to 50 mph would be possible with storms this
afternoon and evening, but severe potential remains low due to
weak shear.

Highs today should be hotter than yesterday in most locations due
to more sun, mainly in the lower to mid 90s. It will be quite
humid as well with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to upper
70s. Latest models may be underestimating the surface dewpoints
this afternoon. Heat indices should stay just below advisory
criteria of 105 degrees this afternoon and early evening.

After midnight tonight, a complex of storms over the High Plains
in western Kansas may dive south or southeast, possibly into
northern Oklahoma. Not sure this will occur due to marginal wind
shear. There would be an outside chance of damaging winds and
heavy rainfall with this complex. A few additional storms may
linger mainly southeast of I-44.

Thursday looks similar to today with hot and humid conditions as
well as low chances for slow moving storms capable of heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Temperatures may be a bit hotter
compared to today.

Thursday night into early Friday, there is a stronger signal by
latest models that a complex of storms will affect at least the
northern half of Oklahoma. Stronger shear and steepening mid level
lapse rates suggest that more organized severe storms may be
possible. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall would be possible with
this complex.

Friday afternoon through Sunday, kept chances for storms across
the area with the highest chances in northern Oklahoma. Some
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy
rainfall as sufficient shear suggest organized storms, at least in
northern Oklahoma. Additional complexes of storms may form Friday
night into early Saturday as well as Saturday night into early
Sunday, but confidence is very low. Clouds and rain may keep
temperatures down from currently forecast numbers. Many locations
in southern Oklahoma and north Texas may not get any rainfall at
all.

Sunday night through Tuesday, drier and hotter conditions are
likely as a mid/upper level ridge builds across the area.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  72  95  72 /  30  20  20  30
Hobart OK         95  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  20  20
Gage OK           96  69  95  68 /  20  20  20  30
Ponca City OK     92  73  93  71 /  30  20  20  40
Durant OK         93  74  93  74 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/14/25



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