Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 230843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
343 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016
A compact vort max/shortwave trough, currently located across
western Texas, is expected to lift northeastward near the I-44
corridor through this morning. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop downstream of the vort max. Various
convective-allowing models (HRRR/HRRRX/4 KM nam) have been
consistent with this solution. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with progged precipitable water values of at least 2.0";
however, seasonably strong 700-500 mb flow (+3 standardized
anomaly at 700 mb) should result in relatively fast storm motion.
Additional thunderstorms may develop across the eastern Texas
panhandle later this afternoon in vicinity of a surface
trough/dryline, and may affect western Oklahoma late afternoon
into the early evening. Seasonably anomalous combination of
instability (MLCAPE >2500 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (at least
30 knots) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms.
A cold front is expected to move into northwest Oklahoma late
Wednesday into Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible once again. Southward propagation of the cold front will
be relatively slow as the associated shortwave trough lifts
northeastward toward the Great Lakes, and likely will be driven
by convection and a resultant effective cold front.
The cold front/effective boundary is expected to be somewhere in
northern Oklahoma on Thursday, so the greatest chance of
showers/storms will be across northern Oklahoma. Progged
instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (~30
knots) will maintain the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Deeper moisture may rotate around a mid-level ridge into eastern
half of Oklahoma by Friday and Saturday, so will maintain at least
a chance of showers/storms both days. The greatest probabilities
will be east of I-35.
Another shortwave trough may move into the Plains by Monday with
a continued chance of showers/storms, especially across northern
Temperatures will remain seasonably warm through the week with
highs generally slightly below to near average through the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 89 73 93 71 / 60 10 10 20
Hobart OK 91 73 93 69 / 40 20 20 30
Wichita Falls TX 91 73 95 71 / 30 10 10 10
Gage OK 93 72 91 64 / 30 30 30 50
Ponca City OK 88 76 93 70 / 50 10 20 50
Durant OK 92 73 94 72 / 30 10 0 10