Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 260532 AAC
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
26/06Z TAFs. VFR conditions will be forecast with still occasional
mid-level cigs. Mainly light southeast winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 951 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Adjusted POPs for this evening and overnight. Otherwise forecast
is in good shape.

DISCUSSION...
First, lowered POPs northwest for this evening as earlier
convection has dissipated. Still continue with a few elevated
echoes over central Oklahoma and more showers in northeast
Oklahoma, so will maintain slight chance pops in northern and
central portions of the area.

Out west, the HRRR has been developing convection on the east side
of the current complex in the panhandles and moving that southeast
into southwestern portions of the area. Convection has not been
developing as far east as the HRRR suggested and more recent runs
have been backing off on that scenario. Still, there is some
signal in both the HRRR and RAP of some development approaching
far southwestern sections, so have added a sliver of chance pops
in far southwest Oklahoma and the western counties of north Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue. Will maintain a mention of shra at both
GAG/WWR for an hour or two and will intro a chance at PNC. Could be
a few shra/tstms across southwest OK into north TX during the
morning hours on Monday, but confidence remains to low to mention in
the TAFs at this time.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main forecast challenge is determining rain chances now
through Tuesday.

Through this evening, believe isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms will affect parts of mainly western
and northern Oklahoma. Light radar echoes over southwestern
Oklahoma as of 245 pm will likely continue to weaken as they move
southeast this afternoon, encountering a drier and more stable
airmass. Most rain this evening appears to be in the form of showers
and a few thunderstorms moving southeast from Kansas, likely from
a stronger mid level disturbance in northwestern mid/upper flow.
This activity will continue to spread southeast this afternoon and
evening, at least into northwestern Oklahoma, and generally is
expected to weaken as it moves into drier and more stable air.
Regardless, increased rain chances slightly this evening across
northwestern Oklahoma from this activity. A few rumbles of thunder
will be possible over western Oklahoma where MUCAPE values
100-700 J/kg are forecast, though no severe storms are expected
from the limited instability. Rainfall should remain light for the
most part and under 0.25".

After midnight tonight, not sure what exactly will happen, but
kept 20% chances for weak showers and thunderstorms west of a
Seymour, TX to Clinton to Ponca City line where there seems to be
a slightly stronger model QPF signal. Mid level moisture remains
abundant across much of the area, so even weak isentropic
mid level lift could trigger some weak high based showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms. Do not expect widespread rains.

Monday looks to be fairly similar to today. Kept low rain chances
mainly over western Oklahoma with possible weak showers and
storms during the morning hours in this area. Western north Texas
may have some showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the
afternoon hours as the air becomes increasing moist (precipitable
water values 1.5-1.9") and unstable (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) which
would support perhaps a few strong storms with gusty winds, small
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should stay
slightly below average and mainly in the 80s.

Monday night into early Tuesday, there appears to be a signal that
storms may move into at least the northern half of Oklahoma from
Kansas. Increased rain chances slightly to account for this.
Severe potential remains low as these storms would be weakening as
they head south since the air should be more stable in northern
Oklahoma compared to Kansas. Additional weak showers and storms
may be across the area, though confidence is low.

Tuesday afternoon appears to be breezy, hotter, and more humid.
Increasing mid level temperatures should allow for stronger
capping, decreasing clouds, and diminished chances for rain.

Tuesday night into early Wednesday, there may be additional
showers and storms mainly over northern Oklahoma. Breezy and humid
weather can be expected.

Wednesday and Thursday, breezy to windy and hotter weather can be
expected. This may elevate fire weather conditions.

Thursday night through next Sunday, there still appears to be
signal for wetter conditions across the area, mainly across
northern Oklahoma, during this time frame. Increasing instability
and moisture combined with some weak mid/upper level troughing
and perhaps a weak front may allow for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could be strong to perhaps severe, and produce
locally heavy rainfall. Kept rain chances in the forecast in many
areas. Not confident at all that widespread rainfall will occur.
Rain chances may decrease by Sunday along with the arrival of hotter
conditions as possible mid/upper level ridging moves into the
southern Plains.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  88  72  91 /  20  10  10  10
Hobart OK         66  89  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  89  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           64  88  72  94 /  20  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     64  88  72  91 /  40  20  10  10
Durant OK         67  88  70  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/30



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