Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 031439 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL. REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. APPEARS MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND SPREAD OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
THUS...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN MANY AREAS. ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY UNDER 0.25 INCH.

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY
BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE MAIN
HAZARD DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNIES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT HAIL
SIZE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 800 J/KG AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND ALTUS AREAS.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COOL/COLD START THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
AS SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

AFTER TODAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND THEN THE SYSTEM ITSELF AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  49  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         72  48  79  49 /  50  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  50  80  51 /  40  20   0   0
GAGE OK           71  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  51  78  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23



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