Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141100 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
500 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Generally light north winds and VFR conditions shall prevail
throughout the TAF period.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A mild and dry pattern will continue into next week. Saturday looks
to be the only day with significant impacts as fire weather reaches
elevated levels. Western north Texas will see some low humidity
values on Friday as well, but light winds should mitigate fire
weather concerns. Saturday night will also be the only chance for
precipitation (albeit, a low chance).

Cold air will pour into the state today as a reinforcing shortwave
makes its way through. Afterward, temperatures will gradually climb
back up under ridging until a cut-off low gets ejected over the
plains on Saturday. This will bring a brief surge of moisture up
from the gulf, opening up a window for some precipitation on
Saturday night.

After this, models diverge greatly on the character of the kicker
low and trough. While the ECMWF closes off a low off the coast of
California and progresses the trough rather quickly, the GFS
combines the two for a slower solution.

With the drought ongoing, models continue to greatly underdo
dewpoint temperatures, especially in the afternoon. Recent days with
fire weather concerns have seen a bias of as much as 5 to 10 degrees
too high, with locally higher errors. With this in mind I opted to
drop dewpoints on Friday afternoon from guidance. With southerly
flow on Saturday, stuck closer to guidance as confidence is not as
high for a drier solution.

A blend of MOS guidance seems to be doing the best with Max
Temperatures, with little in the way of bias.

Beyond Sunday, model solutions diverge too much to confidently
deviate from guidance.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         51  27  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  31  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           49  24  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  27  51  32 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         56  33  54  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/14/14


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