Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

18Z TAF discussion below.


Rain expected to stay out of TAF sites this afternoon, although
may be close for KOUN/KOKC. Some fog/reduced visibility will be
possible late tonight/early Thursday near and ahead of the stalled
frontal boundary. Where this occurs will be dependent on where
this boundary stalls later today.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1011 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/


Made minor adjustments to precipitation/weather for this
afternoon. Best ascent will shift east as mid-upper shortwave
trough departs, and latest water vapor shows drying/subsidence in
its wake moving into western Oklahoma. This will tend to limit
convective potential this afternoon. The primary impetus will be
residual outflow boundaries and weak cold front that will
progress southeast to near I-44 by peak heating. Modest
northwesterly mid level flow will contribute marginal deep layer
shear for storm organization and persistence. This, combined with
moderate instability, will support severe potential with any
storms that do form.

For the next couple of hours, some fog will be possible near the
cold front over northwest Oklahoma. As winds veer to
northwesterly and strengthen behind the front and as heating
commences, fog should diminish.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

A small area of showers and storms will continue
east this morning, likely producing IFR to MVFR conditions
at PNC for an hour or so. RAP soundings suggest that elevated
storms are possible around the OKC TAF after 12-13Z.

Later this afternoon, additional storms may form during peak
heating as a frontal boundary approaches central Oklahoma.

After 22-23z all TAF sites should have VFR conditions with
an outside chance of light fog by 12z Thursday (OKC/OUN).

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

So far this morning most of the showers and thunderstorms
have developed north of Oklahoma in Kansas and points
north and east. Most model and sounding data indicate enough
cooling will occur over the next 3 to 4 hours that at least
widely scattered showers and storms will form across north
central Oklahoma. After sunrise, elevated showers and storms
may also form across central Oklahoma including the OKC area.

It appears that instability will remain rather weak, but a few
storms may produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

A cold front will move across part of Oklahoma today before
stalling along or near Interstate 44. By mid afternoon to early
evening, better storm chances will be across south central and
southeast Oklahoma.

After tonight/early Thursday, another period of very warm and dry
weather will return to the Southern Plains. On Friday, a very
breezy south wind and very warm temperatures will combine to
increase the risk of grass fires, especially across western
Oklahoma. A similar setup is possible Monday afternoon of next

A weak frontal boundary will move into northern Oklahoma on
Saturday, otherwise no real cold air intrusions are expected
through at least the middle of next week.


Oklahoma City OK  78  59  81  60 /  40  10   0   0
Hobart OK         78  58  83  59 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  62  84  61 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           79  48  84  56 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74  51  79  60 /  70   0   0   0
Durant OK         79  63  84  61 /  30  20   0   0




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