Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 300030
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME CU WERE BEING OBSERVED EARLIER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT CAP
LIKELY KEPT THEM AT BAY. IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY BE IN FWD/S FA. WILL LEAVE SCHCS IN FOR
OUR EXTREME SE ZONES SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
THERE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
NO OTHER SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
30/00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST FEW
HOURS OF FORECAST THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE GUSTY FRONT MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY IS MIXING DOWN WARMER
AIR BEHIND IT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKALHOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO ABATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS
DROP. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT
AND BECOME A SPECIFIC, THEN GENERAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. APART FROM A CHANCE FOR THIS SUNDAY
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE LATER
MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OKALHOMA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER
COMES TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE, LYING DIFFUSE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA, IS AVAILABLE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND A MODEST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDER COULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WILL A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY. UNTIL
FRIDAY, THE WEEK WILL BE QUITE WARM...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE AIRMASS FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  72  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
HOBART OK         44  73  53  80 /   0   0   0  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  75  56  80 /   0   0  10  30
GAGE OK           41  76  47  82 /   0   0   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     41  73  49  78 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         53  72  58  74 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014-015-021-033-034-036.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

&&

$$

11/03


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