Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
2806/2906Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF GAG/WWR...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY AFTER 6Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WWR/GAG LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID TO LATE
WEEK.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST
TWO DAYS SHOW THAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HOT DAYS...WE DO SEEM TO BE
SLOWLY DRYING OUT. THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDICES A BIT LOWER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS SLIGHT DRYING TREND
LOOKS TO PERSIST TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAT INDICES MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE
SOME MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE POOLING AND RESULTANT HIGHER HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT NEED
TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRENDS TOMORROW.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR A FEW
DAYS...THOUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MIGHT NOT
SEE AS MUCH OF A TAMP DOWN ON TEMPERATURES AS OTHERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

FROM NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  69  90 /   0  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     76  98  76  92 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

TX...NONE.
&&



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