Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 270740
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
After a week, finally today the upper trough that has been to the
west of OKlahoma will depart. The most likely effects of this will
be a chance for thunderstorms again, but moisture and vertical
shear are expected to be less across northwest Oklahoma.
Nevertheless, instability underneath the core of the low, passing
from southeast CO into western Kansas, is expected to be
sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Across
southeast Oklahoma, vertical shear is forecast considerably
stronger as well as instability. Assisted by a minor wave in the
synoptic flow, thunderstorms are expected to be stronger or severe
this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the upper trough,
Saturday appears to be the day between the last week and the next
with the lowest chance for rain or thunder. By early Sunday, some
models suggest warm advection into central Oklahoma with a chance
for thunderstorms. A weak wave is forecast by the GFS and NAM to
move into the low-amplitude upper ridge and across OK later Sunday
and early Monday. This will bring an increased chance for
thunderstorms north to south during this period. Upper flow is
expected to remain relatively weak, so severe potential will be
minimized. A large-scale trough is forecast to pass through the
plains on Wednesday bringing a front through Oklahoma Wednesday
with another chance for thunderstorms. Modestly drier and milder
weather is expected the second half of the week, although low
rain/thunderstorm chances will continue as a southern lobe of the
upper low moves across the southern plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  85  65 /  40  20  10  20
Hobart OK         87  60  87  65 /  20  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  88  62  89  66 /  40  10  10  10
Gage OK           83  55  85  61 /  20  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     80  62  83  63 /  60  40  20  10
Durant OK         80  68  86  68 /  80  40  20  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/09



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