000
FXUS64 KOUN 192328 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.AVIATION...
20/00Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail through forecast
period. Numerous SHRA/TSRA across northern TX into southern OK
not expected to impact terminals, although brief wind
gusts/changes in direction may occur. Storm north KPNC expected to
dissipate before reaching KPNC but will monitor closely.
Otherwise, slight stronger southwest winds expected tomorrow with
hot conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 116 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The extreme heat and humidity could abate slightly Sunday as
models indicated slightly less surface moisture. For the time
being, a heat advisory is not expected for tomorrow, but that
could change. Otherwise, the upper high pressure that is over the
southern plains is forecast to move a bit westward allowing weak
influence of the westerlies into Oklahoma by Tuesday. An upper
trough through the Missouri Valley Tuesday is expected to push a
surface front into Oklahoma Tuesday night bringing a good chance
for rain and thunder across the state Tuesday night and in the
southern half of Oklahoma Wednesday. Less hot weather will follow.
Another upper system is expected from the west on Friday again
bringing good rain and thunderstorm chances. Rain chances could
last into the weekend with still modest influence from northwest
flow.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected with cumulus developing through the
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the southwest
quarter of Oklahoma and southward. Southwest wind will mostly
remain under 12 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Modified POPs and recalculated hourly grids in general.

DISCUSSION...
The small showers over northern Oklahoma have dissipated, and have
removed the POPs and weather north. CAMs still suggest somewhat
higher chances in the south so have focused the POPs south.

Meanwhile after recent rains, now we have the humidity. Dewpoints
are currently at the 95th percentile for mid-August at Oklahoma
City and Wichita Falls, and 99th percentile at Ponca City. And as
we get back into the warm August weather, heat index values are
expected to be quite high. The heat advisory still looks good for
heat index of 105 to 110.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  97  73  93 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         76  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  76  98  74  95 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           72  96  73  93 /  10  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     77  98  75  94 /  20  10  20  20
Durant OK         77  96  74  92 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>026-028>032-040-042-043-048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

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