


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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584 FXUS64 KOUN 091754 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Isolated strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday, with heat indices near 105 degrees possible in some areas. - A weekend cold front will bring our next best chance for widespread storms and a noticeable cooldown. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 While widespread activity is not anticipated, a few high-resolution CAMs (notably the ARW and NAM 3km) are starting to suggest the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during the peak heating hours this afternoon. This activity could be aided by any remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday nights convection. As far as location, moisture and some low level convergence in western Oklahoma would make this the most likely area to see storms. For Wednesday night, most guidance shows diminishing convective potential after sunset. However, the NAM 3km remains an outlier, depicting another potential MCS diving south into the area overnight. Confidence in this scenario is low, but not zero, and will need to be monitored. For now, have maintained low-end PoPs overnight, mainly across northern Oklahoma. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The main story for the short term will be the building heat and humidity. An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the region, leading to widespread hot temperatures on Thursday. Highs are expected to climb into the mid-to-upper 90s for most, with some locations across western Oklahoma potentially reaching 100 degrees. When combined with ample low-level moisture, this will result in heat index values pushing 100 degrees across the board, with readings near 105 degrees in southeast Oklahoma and parts of north- central Oklahoma. Models are starting to show better agreement about the potential for an MCS diving toward northwest Oklahoma Thursday night, supported by a strengthening low level jet. SPC has included us in a marginal risk for this area. Friday will remain hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm chances will increase late Friday into Friday night as the front nears the area, though uncertainty remains on the exact timing and coverage of storms. Day && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A lingering cold front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, though models diverge on its exact position. Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will lead to noticeably cooler temperatures across the region Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases early next week as the upper-level pattern becomes weak and ill-defined, making it challenging to time any specific disturbances. Will maintain slight chance PoPs for Monday and Tuesday pending better model agreement in subsequent forecast cycles. Temperatures are expected to remain at or just below seasonal normals. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Low confidence forecast for thunderstorms today, at least for the locations of them. Surface temperatures are already in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with the lowest dewpoints across the area in the lower 60s. There is a surface trough located over the Texas panhandle, and this is where there is currently a cumulus field which attempted to fire a few towers, leaving only disorganized cirrus for now. In central Oklahoma, there is a weakness in the mean sea level pressure field, which coincides with the deepest moisture (and mid 70s dewpoints)...and this is where we will see some cumulus developing over the next few hours. As mentioned, the thunderstorm chances are low, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAF sites, especially through 00Z tonight. Light winds and VFR ceilings will increase over the next few hours, before dissipating once again after sunset. Fox && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 96 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 72 101 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 99 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 70 100 72 95 / 10 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 71 95 75 93 / 10 0 0 10 Durant OK 74 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...21