Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH NOON...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SWRN OK/NRN TX THIS
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM H850 WINDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DID NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/WX CHCS THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTN. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
EXITING/DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SFC DPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLE IN
THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX THIS EVENING. THE
RECENT HRRR IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO OVER-DO CONVECTION...
HOWEVER... THE GENERAL LOCATION IS LIKELY FAIRLY ACCURATE... WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN OK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...
WITH MAYBE ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT KLAW AND KHBR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA WILL FORM SOUTH OF KPPA-KSWO
18-05Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW FACTORS HAVE LED
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY INCLUDING A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...SLIGHT MID LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO BREAK A WEAK CAP...AND
SOME ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THINK THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL WEAKEN. THINK THEY WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDED/INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND WEAKEST CAPPING ARE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GENERALLY THINK WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
CAPPING STRENGTHENS.

TODAY WILL BE HOT AND STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY NEAR EAST OF A SHAWNEE
TO MARIETTA LINE ON TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY POOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NO RAIN
OR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CAPPING MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO
+13...SO THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. A STRAY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THURSDAY
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER AREA DUE TO SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. DON/T
EXPECT ALL DAY RAINS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  94  70  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         96  69  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  97  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           92  66  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     93  69  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         95  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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