Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 250251 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDED A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS.
INCREASED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF A SEYMOUR TEXAS TO WICHITA FALLS TO
ATOKA LINE.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST RUNS
WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. ADDED ATOKA COUNTY AS WELL.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT MID LEVEL ECHOES MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHICH MOST OF THESE WERE EVAPORATING BEFORE
THE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL RATHER LIGHT FROM NOW THROUGH 1
AM AS IT AFFECTS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40...IT COULD BE IN NEARLY
FORM. WARM NOSES OF +9C AROUND 810 MB AT KFWD AND +4 AROUND 730 MB
AT KOUN AS OF 00Z SUGGEST THAT FIRST PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
MELT INTO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE QUICKLY COOLS AND SATURATES. DO NOT
ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. APPEARS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW BY 4 AM.

WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
NEAR OKC/OUN...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING LESS THAN 5SM AT THE MOMENT. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT NEAR SPS AND LAW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 GROUP
AT SPS AROUND 09-12Z...BUT LEAVE LAW DRY FOR NOW. AVIATORS SHOULD
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY NEAR THE RED RIVER...HOWEVER...AS SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT THERE BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
BECOMES A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW... UP TO AROUND AN INCH... IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION NEAR THE RED RIVER.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONT TO BACK OFF ON ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR THAT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT MEANS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE SNOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THERE
ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON IF... WHERE... AND
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WARMER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO PRECIPITATION COULD BE WINTRY
EARLY ON IN THE WEEKEND BUT GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE
TEMPERATURES WARM. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK AS DEEP AS THE ONE LATER THIS WEEK WHICH MEANS THAT THERE WOULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME FREEZING RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL TRENDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS ARE A BIT WARMER
WITH THIS AIRMASS WHICH IS GOOD NEWS SINCE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE
CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP. OF COURSE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE MODELS AND A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SINCE THAT IS STILL
ABOUT A WEEK AWAY SO WILL SEE IF THE WARMER TREND CONTINUES OR IF
WE HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  26  49  23  30 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         26  51  24  31 /  20   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  28  52  28  36 /  20  10   0  10
GAGE OK           16  50  19  26 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     22  46  19  28 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         28  43  27  36 /  70  60   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ089-090.

&&

$$

17/03


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.