Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280746
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23


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