Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 271134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES KGAG
AND KWWR...WHERE A MORNING STORM COMPLEX MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER TODAY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KGAG/KWWR ONCE AGAIN IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE COMING WEEK REMAIN UNCHANGED. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY OR
THE DAY BEFORE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ONE OR TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EARLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LOOK TO GET IN ON THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS...WHERE UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...IT STILL
APPEARS ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN LOCALIZED. PERHAPS THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PEEL AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FRONTAL TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  72  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
HOBART OK         98  73  93  71 /  10  20  50  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
GAGE OK           92  72  87  67 /  60  50  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     97  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  50
DURANT OK         95  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

MBS/AUSTIN



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