Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAFS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  AFTER
12Z...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...BUT AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH "NEARBY" STORMS NORTHEAST
AND WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION... 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER... A FEW SITES MAY FLIRT WITH 5 OR 6SM BR THROUGH SUNRISE.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY THIS AM... THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ELONGATED SW/NE... FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE LAST EVENING RIDING THE RIDGE
RESULTED IN A NARROW AXIS OF LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO SWRN
KS... SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE
PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECREASED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... WITH ONLY LIGHT RETURNS LEFT ON RADAR ACROSS THE ERN OK PH
THROUGH 07Z. MEANWHILE... SOUTH/ALONG THE ARBUCKLES... AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION OF LIGHT SFC WINDS. GIVEN
DPTS IN THE 70S... WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED BY PATCHY LIGHT FOG... WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL... JUST A WARM AND
HUMID MORNING.

FOR TODAY... MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.... WHICH
STARTS AT 17Z/NOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX...
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z/7PM CDT WED. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THIS AFTN-THU... STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S-
100S ACROSS THE REGION. DPTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
HEAT INDICES. DPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO 105
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER THIS AFTN AND TMRW. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...
BUT THE HEAT ADV WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. S/SW
FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS PICKS UP THU-FRI... WITH H850 TEMPS ACROSS WRN
OK AND WRN N TX PUSHING 25-29 C BY FRI AFTN. IN RESPONSE... BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK INTO THE LOW-MID 100S.

KEPT SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER WED-EARLY THU AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES
S/SE ACROSS ERN OK. KEPT CHCS CONSTRAINED EAST OF I-35... AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
OK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER... WITH CHCS SLIDING S/SE
THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
BROAD H500 RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO
SUN. AFTER WHICH... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THE WRN
RIDGE AS A STOUT H500 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF SK/MB INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS AND GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE... AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUN-MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY TUE-WED AS THE PLAINS REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WRN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  98  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
HOBART OK         74 103  73  99 /   0   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 102  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69 100  70  97 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  97  72  92 /   0  20  10   0
DURANT OK         75  99  74  96 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



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