Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 180352
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.
VFR conditions are expected to continue.
A cold front will move south and bring a wind shift to the
north/northeast. Cold front timing appears to be faster than
previously forecast which should move into KOKC 09-10 UTC, and be
near KSPS around 12 UTC.
Non-convective low level wind shear was kept at KLAW and added at
KSPS through 10 UTC where confidence of occurrence is moderate
based on latest radar data. Otherwise, chances of occurrence
remain too low to mention.
There is an outside chance for MVFR ceilings just behind the cold
front near KOKC and KOUN 09-16 UTC, but will not mention due to
low confidence of occurrence.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/
Adjusted temperatures and winds through the evening into the
17/23z surface analysis shows the surface front/trough residing
just north of the Panhandles in southwestern Kansas and
southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly winds remain elevated, ahead
of the front, across the Panhandles and Oklahoma. Temperature
trends over the past few hours have resulted in locations holding
on to upper 80s to upper 90s temperatures, especially in western
and northwestern Oklahoma. Made adjustments to the hourly trends,
holding on to those warmer temperatures through sunset, as the
vast majority of guidance continues to undercut temperatures. In
the same manor, kept wind gusts elevated, near 30 mph, for the
same time period. Fairly tight pressure gradient is expected with
the advance of the surface boundary. 3 hr pressure changes are on
the order of +4 to 6 mb through 18/03z across western and
Still plan on letting the wind advisory and red flag warnings
expire at 18/00z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/
After three days of well above average temperatures and
humidity, a cold front will bring some relief. Meanwhile, a small
part of northwest Oklahoma is experiencing triple digit heat again
today with very low humidity behind a dryline. Such weather
conditions will favor rapid spread of any grass fires this
A cold front is expected to enter far northwest Oklahoma by late
evening and will move across central Oklahoma (OKC) by sunrise
Tuesday. The front will stall before reaching south central and
southeast Oklahoma, so rather warm/hot conditions will continue
for this area through Wednesday.
A trough will move across the central United States late Wednesday
through Thursday. This system will push a much stronger front
across Oklahoma and north Texas. Rain and thunderstorms will
likely develop along the front, mainly along and southeast of
Interstate 44 where better low level moisture will be in place.
Cooler weather behind the second front will be replaced by
another warming trend which will occur during the upcoming
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 79 59 79 / 0 0 10 10
Hobart OK 59 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 63 82 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 55 76 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 60 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 69 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 20