000
FXUS64 KOUN 090436
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
09/06Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS ALONG WITH KSPS.
SOME MVFR BR POSSIBLE KPNC DOWN THROUGH KOKC/KOUN THROUGH 12-14Z.
CIGS WILL LIFT AND ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT LOW TEMPS WITH TEMPS SLOW TO DROP UNDER THE CLOUD COVER
DESPITE WINDS GOING LIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN SE PARTS OF THE FA.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT THIS.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

AVIATION...
09/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST
FROM KPNC DOWN THROUGH KOKC AND KLAW/KSPS. MVFR BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING WORSE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL
TERMINALS TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS SNOWFALL OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE BACK EDGE SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6 PM. SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED NEAR ENID...MEDFORD...AND BRAMAN.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF WAURIKA TO ADA LINE. LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY LINGER NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA THROUGH 9
PM. MODEL FORECAST LOWS APPEARED REASONABLE...RANGING FROM 15
DEGREES IN SNOW COVERED AREAS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER
30S NEAR DURANT.

SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...
SLIGHTLY PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS DUE TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED...EXCEPT NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA WHERE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE.

MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE 80 DEGREE MARK WILL BE MET IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY DRY AIR AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WILDFIRE DANGER ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. APPEARS THE
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50 MPH...SO AT LEAST A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. PREFERRED THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS. SCALED BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SEEMS
LIKELY WITH A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES MAY VARY
CONSIDERABLY DAY TO DAY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  61  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         26  62  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  60  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  66  35  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     21  57  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  55  40  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11