Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 241221
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017
.AVIATION...24/12z TAF Issuance...
MVFR few to broken stratus continues to impact portions of western
and southern Oklahoma this morning. Expect steady improvement,
with a return to VFR by mid morning. Winds will remain out of the
northwest, sustained near 20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph.
Overnight, ceilings will remain scattered to broken, holding at
VFR, and winds will shift slightly to the north and northeast.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
Primary forecast focus is on precipitation late this weekend into
early next week, as well as elevated fire weather conditions today.
This morning, after clearing the Arbuckle Mountains around 1 AM CST,
it was smooth sailing for the cold front on its march east/southeast
toward the Ouachita Mountains by 3 AM CST. Per Oklahoma Mesonet, West
Texas Mesonet, traditional obs, etc., northwest winds remain breezy
well behind the front, with sustained winds around 15 mph gusting
around 25 mph. Noticeably cooler air has also made a cameo, which is
Northwest winds will remain breezy through the day, with gusts in
the late morning and afternoon in the low to mid 20 mph range this
afternoon. These winds combined with minimum RH values around 25 to
35 percent across much of the region, fire weather conditions will
be Elevated today. Luckily, in contrast to Thursday, temperatures
will only reach near 60 in western north Texas to the mid 40s in far
For the weekend, the southern plains will end up under a zonal flow
pattern into Saturday, with the surface high sliding eastward over
the ARKLATEX by Saturday night. As southerly warm air advection
returns into/on Sunday, temperatures will slowly rebound,
accelerated by the approach of a weak 500mb short wave and it`s
associated surface trough by Sunday Morning. Mid 60s and upper 50s
can be expected Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation chances will slowly increase Sunday afternoon into the
evening and overnight. Overall, mid to long range guidance is in
general agreement. However, with a weekly forced environment, zonal
flow pattern, there remains a bit of a challenge in when, where, and
how much. Presently, expect the best rain chances to be over the
eastern half of Oklahoma. Modest moisture return ahead of the short
wave trough collect across east Texas into eastern Oklahoma and the
Ozarks. Forcing for ascent will be provided by a dry line advancing
as far as central Oklahoma and some broader forcing associated with
295 and 300 K isentropic ascent. Rain chances are expected to shift
eastward by Monday afternoon, with another low chance Tuesday into
Wednesday as another weak short wave trough lifts across the plains.
Temperatures will remain mild, but well above average for the time
of year. Tuesday will be the warmest, as a return to
south/southwesterly flow between short wave troughs results in
temperatures pushing the upper 70s near 80 across western north
Texas and upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 53 27 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 52 26 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 59 29 51 37 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 45 22 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 48 24 47 31 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 62 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0