000
FXUS64 KOUN 300006 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
706 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. TWEAKED HOURLY
ELEMENTS THIS EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AS IT MOVED INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
10 PM THIS EVENING. THUS...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
PANHANDLES INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WILL NOT ALTER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...
THOUGH APPEARS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR LATER THAN 10 PM TONIGHT...
MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL RATES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE TOO EXCESSIVE...NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL DURATION MAY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS...WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS AND ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...IN
THE 90 TO 99 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OTHER ELEMENTS THIS EVENING WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
FIRST AFFECT KGAG/KWWR AND GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO KCSM/KHBR.
GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF KLAW/KSPS.
SHRA/OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL BRING REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM 08Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOW LEVEL COOL. -RA AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF QPF SIGNAL IS MOST COINCIDENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO IS A SIGNAL THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY REINTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SECOND MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN OUR CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE THE LOWEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 17 TO 19 DEGREES C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  76  65  78 /  60  90  90  30
HOBART OK         66  83  66  81 /  70  70  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  68  83 /  30  30  60  20
GAGE OK           64  74  62  81 /  90  90  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  72  64  80 /  70  90  50  20
DURANT OK         72  81  66  78 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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