Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The 18Z aviation discussion follows....


An upper-level disturbance will help push a weak cold front into
northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning. It will also provide a
possibility of TSRA across the eastern half of Oklahoma early
tomorrow. The only TAF site with high enough chances of TSRA to
warrant their mention is KPNC for early Wednesday. Winds will
diminish or become light/variable in the vicinity of the cold
front tomorrow morning across northwest Oklahoma, and a slightly
weaker pressure gradient will lead to lighter winds in general
elsewhere. With the lighter winds near the front, and more-or-
less clear skies above, there will be a possibility of some
intermittent BR in northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

Removed morning fog mention in parts of southern and southeastern
Oklahoma where the fog has dissipated. Increased cloud cover
today. Delayed rain chances tonight a few hours.

Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid conditions will continue for the
rest of today.

High level cloud cover will continue to overspread Oklahoma and
north Texas today, however no rain is expected during the daylight
hours as the mid levels of the atmosphere remain dry. The air
should remain capped. Forecast highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s appear to be on track.

Latest models, particularly the HRRR, keep depicting showers and
storms moving into northern Oklahoma from Kansas after 9 pm this
evening at the earliest, and probably not until after midnight
tonight. Thus, delayed the rain chances tonight. A few strong to
perhaps severe storms are possible in far northern Oklahoma late
tonight where MUCAPE is forecast to be 800-1400 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear will be near 25 kt. Marginal hail up to quarter size and
marginal wind gusts up to 60 mph could occur. Not confident that
severe storms will occur. The greater storm chances and coverage
are expected to stay north of the Oklahoma Kansas state line.

Products will be updated shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

High clouds will increase this morning from west to east.
Meanwhile, some fog and low clouds have recently formed
across southeast Oklahoma.  Low clouds with MVFR ceilings
may develop for a few hours in and around OKC/OUN and perhaps
LAW but confidence is not high. Later this evening and overnight,
widely scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly
across north central Oklahoma after 8z. MVFR conditions are
possible with thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

High clouds will continue to increase today ahead of a fast moving
shortwave trough. Being late October this should have some impact
on insolation this afternoon. RAP and NAM soundings indicate the
best opportunity for afternoon storms will be across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Even this area will likely
remain capped.

This evening and overnight, showers and a few thunderstorms may
develop, especially across north central Oklahoma. Will keep high
chance POPs for this area. An associated front will enter
northwest Oklahoma around sunrise Wednesday, while a few elevated
showers move across north central and central Oklahoma.

By mid to late afternoon, the frontal boundary will become nearly
stationary north and west of Interstate 44.  Capping will be an
issue again, but an isolated storm or two may form ahead of front
during peak heating (central and south central OK).

After Wednesday, a mid and upper ridge centered over northern
Mexico will build east into Texas and the Southern Plains. This
will bring yet another period of dry weather with well above
average temperatures. A weak front should push into far northern
Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but areas ahead of the front will
warm into at least the mid and upper 80s. Near record high
temperature are expected at least Friday and Saturday.


Oklahoma City OK  78  62  81  57 /   0  30  30  10
Hobart OK         79  63  83  55 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  63  84  58 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           80  58  83  48 /   0  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     80  63  80  52 /   0  50  30   0
Durant OK         80  60  82  61 /   0  10  10  10




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