Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200923
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
423 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Patches of light rain have appeared on area radar displays early
this morning. A generally moist southerly flow will help support
scattered light rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms through
Saturday afternoon.

The surface pressure gradient will be rather tight across
northwest Oklahoma today, resulting in near-Wind Advisory
conditions. Winds will likely remain fairly strong overnight
tonight and into early Saturday as well.

The big event will be Saturday afternoon and evening, as a cold
front advances southeast across Oklahoma and north Texas.
Moderate instability and fairly strong wind shear will lead to a
substantial risk of severe storms. Storms should start out as a
broken line of thunderstorms, including a few supercell storms.
Over the next several hours, the storms are expected to merge
into a nearly solid line, with strong winds becoming the primary
severe weather risk.

The storms should exit our forecast area early Sunday morning
(before sunrise). Somewhat cooler weather will follow on Sunday.
After that, temperatures will rise into Monday, before another
cold front arrives Monday afternoon and evening. Another warming
trend will run through Thursday, when the next front arrives.
Neither of these fronts is likely to have enough moisture to work
with to generate any significant rain or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  66  77  50 /  20  20  50  90
Hobart OK         76  64  80  48 /  30  20  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  77  66  83  52 /  30  20  40  80
Gage OK           74  63  76  41 /  20  20  30  20
Ponca City OK     77  67  77  47 /  10  20  60  80
Durant OK         77  66  81  57 /  40  20  30 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/23



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