261
FXUS64 KOUN 300626
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening, with damaging wind gusts the main hazard.

- Low (10-30%) chances for isolated to scattered showers and
  storms continue through the week into the weekend.

- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A cluster of thunderstorms continues to track southward across
northern into central Oklahoma early this morning. Other
convection is developing across southern Kansas but has so far
not made much progress into our area. Storms may produce strong to
marginally severe wind gusts over the next few hours, but expect
an overall weakening trend to continue through the morning. A
cold front tracking southward into the area could serve as the
focus for additional development later this morning, though
confidence is low in coverage and placement of storms along the
boundary. Greater confidence exists in thunderstorm development
this afternoon as the boundary works its way into central and
southern Oklahoma during peak heating. The stronger storms will be
capable of isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon into this
evening, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns
due to relatively slow storm motions and PWATS approaching 2".
Chances for storms appear much lower across northern Oklahoma this
afternoon into the overnight period as more stable air works in
behind the front.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A few showers and storms may linger into Tuesday morning across far
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, with redevelopment
possible Tuesday afternoon across these areas. Much of the rest of
the area will likely be dry Tuesday behind the front, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s along with lower humidities, a welcome reprieve
from the hot and humid conditions we have seen recently. By
Wednesday, the front will begin to dissipate as lee troughing across
the high plains strengthens, returning southerly winds to the area.
This will bring warmer temperatures and low chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The center of the upper ridge will reposition itself to our south
and east mid to late week, allowing for low chances of showers and
storms to continue through the end of week. A trough is forecast to
cross the area by the weekend, which may bring more widespread
shower and storm activity to the region, though models disagree
somewhat on the strength and timing of this trough. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal average through the end of the week,
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, then warm into the mid to
upper 90s by the weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Storms over north central Oklahoma will affect areas around KPNC
and perhaps down to KSWO tonight. A front will move south into
the area from Kansas with scattered storms expected near the front
on Monday. VFR conditions are expected in general apart from the
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  70  87  70 /  40  40  10  10
Hobart OK         96  70  89  70 /  50  50  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  91  72 /  40  50  30  10
Gage OK           89  66  86  67 /  20  30  10  20
Ponca City OK     91  68  87  67 /  40  10   0  10
Durant OK         95  73  92  74 /  20  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26