Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 290200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
900 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Updated the probability of showers/storms through 12Z
Ongoing complex of severe thunderstorms across southern Kansas
may affect north central Oklahoma later this evening. However,
KICT radar indicates the outflow boundary has pushed ahead of
thunderstorms. This suggests these storms will weaken as they
progress southeastward. In addition, mesoscale analysis indicates
the airmass is more stable with increasing convective inhibition
in northern OKlahoma.
Another complex of thunderstorms is developing across eastern
Colorado. Confidence on these storms affecting north
central/central Oklahoma is much lower. Highest probability
appears to be near the Oklahoma/Texas border, where a low-level
jet may develop. Therefore, decreased the chance of showers/storms
for the overnight hours.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
0Z TAF discussion below.
Isolated/scattered showers/storms will continue to move across
parts of the area over the next few hours. Winds will be variable
in some locations due to outflow from these storms. A complex of
showers/storms may move into parts of the area later tonight into
Fri morning. Depending on what happens tonight/morning scattered
showers/storms may develop again Fri afternoon. Strong wind gusts
and heavy rain will be the primary concerns with the storms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
Some afternoon diurnal showers have started. Instability and moisture
are present to support continued convection through about sunset,
though without any appreciable shear not expecting any kind of
Main forecast challenge is an MCS coming south out of Kansas late
tonight. Models are just now starting to come into some agreement on
the details of this system, with storms entering Oklahoma between
04Z and 06Z and persisting till about I-40. The HRRR is an outlier,
keeping the MCS out of Oklahoma till about 08Z, and the GFS is an
outlier in persisting convection all the way to the Red River. As
the system makes its way south, increasing CIN should gradually
decrease severe potential, but, especially earlier on, instability
(1000-1500 joules) and bulk shear (up to 45 knots) will be enough to
support some severe wind gusts.
Instability and moisture will remain in place tomorrow, possibly
supporting some afternoon diurnal convection again. Part of this
will depend on tonight`s MCS, how much it disrupts the atmosphere
and whatever boundaries it leaves behind. Given the uncertainty in
so many variables, confined POPs to 30 percent or less.
Models continue to hint at the possibility of another MCS tomorrow
night, but details remain sketchy. Again, a lot will depend on the
mesoscale features that will be affected by tonight`s system.
By Sunday, rain chances will be mostly diminished as the ridge
builds back in and temperatures near 100 return to the area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 88 71 91 / 30 30 40 30
Hobart OK 70 90 72 96 / 30 20 30 30
Wichita Falls TX 74 95 74 98 / 20 20 20 20
Gage OK 67 87 68 95 / 30 30 30 20
Ponca City OK 69 87 70 91 / 60 30 40 30
Durant OK 72 93 74 94 / 20 30 20 20