Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 210218 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPDATES OUT SOON.

WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT /5Z
FRIDAY/ TO MONDAY MORNING /12Z MONDAY/. THIS IS FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVY
RAIN TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...
/ONLY LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING/
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... AND THE FACT THAT THIS
IS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... WE WANTED TO GET THE WATCH OUT SO THAT
PEOPLE WOULD BE AWARE AND CAN MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS PARKED SOUTH OF TERMINALS...AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER THIS FEATURE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP AT KSPS.
ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH SFC HEATING...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME THURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         50  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           45  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     46  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/84



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.