Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 180001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
701 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
Low cigs will return late tonight through tomorrow morning for
most terminals. Heights should mainly remain MVFR although some
patchy fog and lower IFR cigs will also be possible near LAW and
SPS. Winds will remain easterly through most of the period before
becoming south easterly by late Sat morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017/
For tonight, a wind shift (with a drier air mass behind it) will
continue to progress southeastward before stalling near the Red
River. Isolated showers will be possible across southern Oklahoma
in vicinity of the boundary. Abundant low clouds are expected
across southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of north Texas as
well. Surface winds will veer back to the southeast by tomorrow
afternoon, advecting the moisture back northward.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Sunday and Monday
as a low-level thermal ridge develops across the High Plains. High
temperatures are expected to be in 80s to near 90F--15 to 20F
above average for mid-March. Southerly winds will be quite breezy
on Sunday with a tight pressure gradient. Very warm and breezy
conditions may result in near-critical fire weather conditions
across the west Sunday afternoon.
Another cold front is expected to pass by on Monday, which will
bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday. This front is expected to
stall near the Red River. Isolated showers/storms will be possible
Tuesday and Wednesday with the remnant boundary in the area;
however, chances will be low with limited ascent.
By the middle of next week, there is evidence in both the ECMWF
and GFS models of a large-scale pattern change with a transition
toward mean southwest flow aloft with embedded shortwave troughs.
This synoptic pattern would be more favorable for strong or severe
thunderstorms and/or fire weather conditions.
One shortwave trough is expected to eject into the Plains on
Thursday. Any severe weather potential will modulated by 1)
moisture recovery and 2) the timing of the shortwave trough. These
parameters will (continue to) evolve as we approach the middle of
next week; therefore, it`s too early for specifics at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 54 75 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 56 75 56 85 / 0 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 62 78 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
Gage OK 44 71 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 45 72 54 84 / 0 0 10 0
Durant OK 62 76 56 81 / 20 10 0 0