Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 250450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTN/EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND BECOMING STRONG. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AFTN/EVENING AT SOME TAF SITES. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS
BUT LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. AN ISOLATED STORM
STILL POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES
TONIGHT NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST NAM THIS EVENING
POINTING TO POSSIBILITY OF FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH QUICK EVOLUTION TO LINEAR
MODE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFT WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL OK AND
SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AS IT
PUSHES INTO ERN OK. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN OK
INTO THE MO/AR OZARKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL OK NEAR SUNSET... WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR COAL... ATOKA
AND BRYAN COUNTIES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS... POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER... STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO N/NW OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A
QUICK RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH SFC DPTS PULLING BACK
INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIALIZATION OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN... POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 PM IN CENTRAL OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALIZE ON THE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER... WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE DRY LINE ACROSS NRN TX MID AFTN... BUT EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THE CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME.... EXPECT THIS TO BE A
FRONTAL SHOW. INITIAL STORMS WILL START OUT ISOLATED BUT QUICKLY
MERGE INTO A MULTI-CELLULAR LINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER INTO THE LATE EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO WELL SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND GOLF BALLS. SBCAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT... WITH 60 TO 70MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY... LCLS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT
INITIALLY AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OK.

THURSDAY MORNING... COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH TEMPS ACROSS NRN OK DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH SOME SITES
NEARING FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MILD... IN
THE 60S AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SHORT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK... NOT LOOKING
SEVERE... BUT I AM A FIRM BELIEVER OF TAKING ONE SYSTEM AT A TIME.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  79  43  61 /   0  60  50   0
HOBART OK         48  80  38  62 /   0  30  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  86  44  63 /   0  20  60   0
GAGE OK           45  71  32  66 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  72  36  60 /   0  50  30   0
DURANT OK         58  79  47  61 /  30  20  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25


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