Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 162313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
613 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.
VFR conditions are expected to continue.
Non-convective low level wind shear is possible at most sites
00-15 UTC. Only added mention at KLAW where confidence of
occurrence is moderate. Otherwise, confidence remains too low
South to southwest winds should stay gusty at many sites and
increase 13-23 UTC.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/
Adjusted temperatures through this evening.
Just a quick evening update to the forecast. Based on obs trend,
increased temperatures a few degrees through 10pm to account for
the continued diurnal effects across western Oklahoma. Also
cleaned up the wind forecast, keeping gusts in the upper 20s to 30
mph range through 9 PM for locations across northern and western
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/
Veering winds tomorrow will spread unseasonably hot/dry airmass
into western portions of Oklahoma. This is expected to yield Red
Flag conditions over the northwest one-quarter of the state as
temperatures climb to near 100 and RH values fall into the single
digits over far northwest Oklahoma. Fire Weather Watch will be
elevated to Red Flag for tomorrow given expected extreme RH minima
and hot temperatures. Elevated wildfire conditions will also exist
across northern and western Oklahoma on Tuesday behind the front
with low RH values, warm temperatures, and gusty north winds. For
now, marginal enough weather conditions and low ERC values will
preclude a fire weather watch for Tuesday.
Cold front still progd to move into northwest Oklahoma Monday
night and stall over southern portions of CWA Tuesday afternoon
through the first half of Wednesday before being reinforced with
lower level ridge as s/wv trough passes over the region. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible near this front Wednesday
afternoon and evening as mentioned trough approaches and frontal
surface deepens. Highest PoPs will be confined to areas near and
southeast of I-44. Organized severe weather appears unlikely at
this time. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above average
through the end of the week with a gradual warm-up expected once
again by next weekend as mid-upper level ridge attempts to build
in from the southwestern states.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 89 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 65 91 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 69 93 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 62 98 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 68 91 62 79 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 70 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004-005-009-