935
FXUS64 KOUN 091750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - Isolated strong storms are possible Wednesday evening and
   night.

 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday, with heat indices
near 105 degrees possible in some areas.

 - A weekend cold front will bring our next best chance for
widespread storms and a noticeable cooldown.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Plentiful sunshine early this afternoon, excepting an area of low
clouds in southeast Oklahoma that are expected to downscale into
cumulus in the next few hours. That sunshine is emblematic of
resurgent subtropical ridging along an axis from southern Arizona to
northern Minnesota. With us just downstream of that axis, it`s not
out of the question that we see storms develop this afternoon and
evening in the northerly flow regime. With that said, morning CAM
guidance is much less bullish on storm development than previous CAM
suites. You never want to place too much faith in short-range models
during the warm season, but the lack of a cu field so far and some
of the mesoscale details (weakening instability, lack of trough
impingement, etc) support that conclusion.

On the flip side, a surface trough is noted clearly on surface
observations up the I-35 corridor and then bending back northwest
through northern Oklahoma. If storms were to develop this evening or
tonight, this zone is likeliest. Forecast soundings show well-mixed
boundary layers and dry mid-levels with the potential for up to
1,600 J/kg of DCAPE, so any updrafts will be watched closely for
downburst potential. Otherwise, the abundance of sunshine will let
temperatures get into the low-to-mid 90s.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A trough that is currently over the northern Sierra is expected to
move east-southeast over the next 24 hours and emerge into the
Colorado High Plains tomorrow afternoon. With that, the ridge will
be shunted southwestward and a surface low will be able to develop
on the High Plains. For us, this means a return to southerly surface
winds and hotter temperatures. HREF ensemble probabilities of highs
reaching 100 or more are near 70% in western north Texas/southwest
Oklahoma, and closer to 85% in northwest Oklahoma. The rest of us
will see temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s. Storm chances seem
like they will be maximized in northwest Oklahoma late in the
evening or overnight as a cluster moves southeastward from the
Palmer Divide, but with weakening instability it`s far from certain
that storms make it here.

Not a whole lot to add about Friday at this point. The trough will
be slowly trundling eastward into the central Plains, so we won`t
see that same southerly wind/heating impact as we do tomorrow.
Therefore, highs should drop by about 2-4 degrees. NBM starts to
become more bullish on precipitation chances Friday night and into
Saturday morning as the next wave in the series approaches.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A lingering cold front will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday, though models diverge on its exact
position. Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will
lead to noticeably cooler temperatures across the region Saturday.

Forecast confidence decreases early next week as the upper-level
pattern becomes weak and ill-defined, making it challenging to time
any specific disturbances. Will maintain slight chance PoPs for
Monday and Tuesday pending better model agreement in subsequent
forecast cycles. Temperatures are expected to remain at or just
below seasonal normals.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Areas
of low stratus continue to build slowly westward across eastern
Oklahoma early this morning, and may briefly impact KDUA/KPNC
through ~15 UTC. Otherwise, modest south-southeasterly surface
winds and scattered ceilings are expected through the day.

While both chance and coverage are forecast to be lower than
previous days, scattered convection cannot be discounted across
western and northern Oklahoma by this/Wednesday evening. Have
opted to leave all terminals free of this mention for now, though
trends will be monitored (particularly for KWWR/KPNC/KCSM).

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72 101  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  99  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           70 100  72  95 /  10   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     71  95  75  93 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         74  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09