Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
000
FXUS64 KOUN 171148
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Scattered light showers and areas of drizzle have developed
overnight and will likely persist for a few hours this morning.
The precipitation is mostly light and not measurable in most
areas, although a few mesonet sites in southwest Oklahoma have
received a hundredth or two. So will keep a mention of some
sprinkles early this morning across most of the area. Then clouds
will decrease across the north and east, but cloudiness will still
likely linger in the southwest today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
We will remain under northerly low-level flow initially on Monday,
but the surface ridge slides to our southeast Monday
afternoon/evening. This will give us southwesterly winds and
warmer temperatures beginning Tuesday. But this will also keep
significant moisture from returning quickly from the Gulf of
Mexico. A mid-level trough approaches on Wednesday with
shower/thunderstorm chances increasing, but instability will still
be somewhat limited as the more open moisture flow from the gulf
does not really develop until the surface ridge moves east away
from the Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday night/Wednesday, so the severe
weather potential looks low. The shower/storm chances will
continue through Thursday night when the mid-level trough moves
east of the area.
There are differences in the surface pattern expectations
beginning Thursday night and Friday. The operational GFS pushes a
much stronger front through the area while the ECMWF pushes a weak
front through and washes it out quickly bringing a quick return of
southerly low-level winds for Friday. The main difference looks to
be in the flow of the northern stream northwesterly flow though
much of western Canada allowing the 1030++ mb surface ridge to
poke into the northern plains, while the ECMWF keeps west-
southwesterly flow from the Pacific northwest into the southern
Canadian prairies. The NBM came in significantly cooler for highs
on Friday, but looking at GEFS/ENS ensembles, the cold solution
such as the operational GFS suggests is in the minority, so have
raised Friday max temps above NBM guidance. By Saturday, even the
GFS has returned southerly low-level flow to the area so the
potential range of Saturday high temperatures begins to narrow
again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Showers continue across portions of Oklahoma, and will continue
through Sunday morning. Dry conditions are expected from Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning. Lingering low level yet VFR
ceilings are expected to continue through Sunday morning, before
conditions improve to higher ceilings Sunday afternoon. Northerly
winds will continue, with diurnal gustiness in the afternoon and
calmer winds overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 63 35 56 37 / 20 0 0 0
Hobart OK 63 34 58 37 / 20 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 65 38 60 37 / 10 0 0 0
Gage OK 63 28 60 37 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 62 28 54 35 / 20 0 0 0
Durant OK 66 39 59 35 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...50