Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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591
FXUS64 KOUN 250530
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1230 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect a few showers and perhaps storms overnight, but probability
at any specific TAF site is less than 50 percent, so will not
include any tempo groups. Winds will generally be southerly, but
expect some veering across western sites tomorrow morning. More
thunderstorms are forecast tomorrow afternoon and evening,
especially across northern and western Oklahoma.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convective inhibition and lack of focus will be the main limiting
factors for storm development this afternoon and evening. These
features will be least effective over the northwest half of
Oklahoma, and this is where we have 20 to 30% probabilities of
rainfall for this evening and tonight. Any storms that do form
will have sufficient instability available to generate marginal
severe weather. Relatively slow movement and high levels of
moisture availability will also provide some risk of flooding.

A weak front will provide more focus tomorrow, and continuing
instability with weaker inhibition suggests somewhat higher
chances for rain/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.

By Friday, ever-weakening wind shear will limit the ability of
storms to organize, but there will still be instability available.

For the remainder of the forecast period, the upper-level flow
will not change much, and rainfall will be highly dependent on
small-scale features that are not really predictable this far out.

A tropical system is forecast to develop in the western Atlantic
over the next few days. Based on the last several medium-range
model runs, it appears improbable that the system will
significantly affect Oklahoma or north Texas, but we will continue
to monitor the system in case there are any meaningful changes in
its progress.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  90  70  91 /  20  30  20  30
Hobart OK         68  91  69  93 /  30  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  92  70  93 /  10  20  10  20
Gage OK           64  88  66  92 /  60  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     68  88  70  91 /  50  30  20  30
Durant OK         73  89  71  90 /  10  50  10  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/01



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