Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 310225 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
925 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
Adjusted POPs for tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through
at least midnight across southwest into portions of central and
north central Oklahoma given latest radar trends. Most models
still point to additional development late tonight across far
west central and northwest Oklahoma as eastern Colorado upper low
gets sheared out over Kansas. Slow movement and very heavy rain
will be the main issue tonight which will lead to minor flooding
in poor drainage and low-lying areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/
Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms formed late this
morning and early afternoon, with better coverage across western
Oklahoma. Most of the convection will dissipate by mid evening,
but may continue overnight in west central and northwest Oklahoma
as a weak mid-level trough moves across eastern Colorado and
western Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be
capable of producing torrential downpours and gusty winds.
A weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma Wednesday into
Thursday, as a trough moves across the Great Lakes and
northeastern United States. The main result will be an increase in
showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern and perhaps
central Oklahoma. Drier air will also filter into most of
Oklahoma by late Thursday into Friday.
Southerly winds will return and increase late Friday into Saturday
as a lee trough develops. This will also coincide with a gradual
increase in near surface moisture. Mainly dry conditions are
expected over the weekend as a mid and upper level ridge will
remain over the southern Plains.
Storm chances will begin to increase around Tuesday of next week
as a strong trough over the Pacific Northwest begins to shift
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 88 69 85 / 30 50 30 40
Hobart OK 69 89 69 85 / 50 50 30 40
Wichita Falls TX 71 92 71 88 / 30 40 20 40
Gage OK 65 83 64 83 / 70 60 50 40
Ponca City OK 70 84 68 83 / 60 50 30 30
Durant OK 72 93 72 89 / 20 20 20 50