Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 181702
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Another relatively cool day is expected today as the surface high
builds into the area. The ridge will move south and southeast of
Oklahoma tonight allowing southwesterly low-level winds to develop
this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The southwesterly winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday
which will create an area of elevated fire weather potential
across northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon where relative
humidity is forecast to fall below 20 percent. Temperatures will
also be warmer throughout the forecast area with the southwesterly
low-level flow.

A mid-level storm system will move from the southwestern United
States toward the southern plains Wednesday with precipitation
chances started on Wednesday but increasing Wednesday night.
Although low-level moisture will be somewhat late in arriving, it
now appears that enough instability develops in western Oklahoma
for a marginal risk of severe storms Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. The precipitation chances continue into Thursday.
Although there is more uncertainty on severe potential on Thursday
based on how widespread and how far south significant
precipitation occurs on Wednesday night, there could be some
potential for strong or perhaps severe storms on Thursday,
although we are not currently outlooked for severe because of
this uncertainty.

The GFS has significantly backed off on it`s forecast of cooler
air moving into the area on Friday and it looks like we will
remain with above average temperatures Friday and through the
weekend. There will be some potential for showers and storms this
weekend with a series of shortwaves in the general westerly flow
aloft, but specific timing remains somewhat uncertain this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

North winds with gusts to near 20kts will continue this afternoon
before becoming light around 00Z. Winds will then turn to the
south and southwest overnight and will again increase Tuesday
morning. Some gusts to near 30kts possible across west by end of
forecast period. Mainly clear skies this afternoon and tonight
with some increase in high clouds tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  36  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         58  35  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  36  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  38  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  33  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         57  33  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...30


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