Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230233 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
933 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

There continues to be some question as to how much, if any,
shower and thunderstorm activity will move into western parts of
the area tonight. Many of the models, including the CAMs, have
the current activity west of the area dying/ending just before or
shortly after moving into far western parts of the fa. Looking at
radar trends over the last few hours, this seems plausible. At
the current time, it looks like the area of storms that maybe has
the best chance for moving into parts of the fa would be the
activity in the OK and N TX Panhandles, if these storms are able
to hold together. So unless new development occurs, it seems the
chances for showers/storms in parts of the area tonight will
remain relatively low so will not increase PoPs at this time and
continue to monitor radar trends.

The cold front is expected to begin to move into NW parts of the
fa early tomorrow morning with showers/storms remaining possible

Made some minor adjustments to some of the hourly grids and sky
cover to show current trends. All updates out soon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Should see VFR conditions continue through much of the forecast
period. A cold front will move south across the area late tonight
and through the day on Friday. Have introduced chances of TSRA at
most sites for a period of time after the frontal passage. We could
also see some MVFR conditions behind the front and associated with
the convection.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Except for some cloudiness, the effects of Tropical Depression
Cindy should remain southeast and east of the area with its
influence decreasing tonight and tomorrow as the remnant
circulation moves up toward the central Mississippi valley.
Attention for us is to our northwest where a front currently in
western Kansas and eastern Colorado will move toward the area.
Storms are expected to form near the front and in the developing
upslope flow behind the front. Although some of these initial
storms may weaken as they approach the area tonight, the signal is
stronger (at least in the GFS and ECMWF) of storm redevelopment
tomorrow near and north of the front when we should see at least
scattered showers and storms. The front will also bring noticeably
cooler air into the northern/central part of the area. Depending
on the cloud cover, southern Oklahoma and north Texas will likely
be quite warm again tomorrow with forecast heat index values
pushing advisory level. Will not issue an advisory with this
package given a little uncertainty on cloud cover and dewpoint
values, but regardless, it will be hot.

This front makes a good push to our south by late June standards
taking the edge off of the high temperatures for a few days. We
remain under northwesterly flow aloft and continue with some
chances of precipitation with both the moisture return from the
south and the possibility of convection moving off the High
Plains toward the area.


Oklahoma City OK  72  86  63  81 /   0  30  40  20
Hobart OK         71  87  64  82 /  10  30  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  96  66  81 /   0  20  50  40
Gage OK           68  79  59  79 /  30  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     71  83  59  83 /  10  30  20  10
Durant OK         74  95  66  82 /  10  30  60  30




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