Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 112339
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
539 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front entered northwest Oklahoma a short time ago, and is
expected to continue to move south across the rest of Oklahoma and
into Texas. As the front passes, the warm weather and south winds
will change to much cooler conditions with a north breeze. Some
low (1000 to 2000 ft ceiling) clouds will be likely north of the
front once it makes it into southern/central Oklahoma. TAF sites
at KOKC, KOUN, KSPS, and KLAW are the most likely to be affected.
Ceilings should rise slowly during the morning and early
afternoon, but the northern edge of the layer is unlikely to move
very far as the front stalls in north Texas tomorrow afternoon.
Conditions will likely deteriorate significantly shortly after the
range of this set of TAFs across the southeast half of Oklahoma
and the KSPS area of Texas.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weather conditions will remain favorable for the start and spread
of grass fires/wildfires through late afternoon/early evening.
Humidity will improve and the wind will gradually decrease through
the early evening, so improving fire weather conditions can
be expected.

A strong cold front will enter far northern Oklahoma around 6 pm
this evening. By sunrise Thursday, the front/wind shift will be
located in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Have lowered temperatures for tonight/Thursday and Friday and
followed the colder NAM/RAP for temperature guidance. This may not
be cold enough, but provides a much better start than blended
guidance.

A prolonged precipitation event is still on track for the southern
Plains. Light precipitation is expected to develop by at least
Thursday night across south central and southeast Oklahoma. As the
precipitation spreads/develops northward, freezing rain and ice
accumulations will become likely. Temperatures during the day
Friday are expected to remain at or below freezing north and west
of a Hollis to Hobart to Norman and Chandler line. A southward
shift in this line is certainly possible and more likely than
a northward adjustment. Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch was
issued earlier today for areas near and northwest of Interstate
44.

The precipitation falling into the shallow cold air Friday and
Friday evening should be on the lighter side. This should result
in more efficient ice accumulations on exposed surfaces. Bridges
and overpasses and some roads will likely become hazardous as
well, especially where temperatures remain at or below 30 degrees.

Overnight Friday into Saturday as the upper trough
approaches/moves across northern Mexico, precipitation rates
are expected to increase most areas. This will also coincide with
some erosion of the colder air and a shift in the freezing line
to the north. This process will likely be rather slow however, so
parts of southwest and central Oklahoma may experience enough
ice accumulation for power outages etc. By Saturday
afternoon/early evening temperatures in central Oklahoma may
rise above freezing, and some melting of ice may occur.

Heavy rainfall is expected to occur most area on Sunday as the
upper trough finally lifts north and east from northern Mexico
into western Kansas. As this occurs, most areas may finally
warm above freezing by Sunday afternoon.

Overall, significant ice accumulations are expected, especially
across west central, northwest and north central Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  30  45  30  31 /   0   0  40  60
Hobart OK         33  47  29  31 /   0   0  30  50
Wichita Falls TX  45  50  35  39 /   0   0  40  60
Gage OK           24  41  24  29 /   0   0  10  50
Ponca City OK     24  41  28  30 /   0   0  20  60
Durant OK         62  66  41  55 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
     night for OKZ004>030-033>036-038.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...None.
&&

$$

09/23/23



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