Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 212332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BUT SPREAD EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR
AND VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS RAIN AND FLOODING... AGAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM-SCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AND THUS STARTS THE FIRST POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST... THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH RAIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
THE HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS
GOOD... BUT WILL BE WATCHING OVER TIME IF THE WATCH WILL NEED
EXPANSION NORTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH NOT ONLY THE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING BUT
WITH THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL. WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE USES
CAUTION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  70  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  60  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/25/25



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