Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 272033
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Once again, low-level moisture will begin returning tonight as
moisture is lurking in central Texas and winds will begin to come
around overnight. A longwave trough will approach from the west
tomorrow, but there is also a consistent signal of a shortwave in
advance of the larger trough that will help induce convection on
Tuesday morning across the southwest. But with this early
convection, the severe weather forecast gets more complicated with
the potential of the early convection stabilizing the airmass in
some areas, or potentially slowing the northward advance of the
warm front. So, there are definitely aspects of the forecast that
will be contingent on how things evolve in the morning and early
afternoon. But regardless on some of the specific evolution,
storms will likely become more widespread during the day with the
approach of the primary longwave trough. And this precipitation
will likely linger across at least portions of the area into early
Thursday as a closed upper low is expected to develop and just
slowly waddle east. Of course, there will be some uncertainties
for precipitation chances at specific locations depending on the
movement of the upper low and where the dry slot wraps into the
circulation. This system moves to the east and gives a relatively
brief respite from precipitation late Thursday into Friday before
precipitation chances increase again ahead of the next slow-
moving upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  71  58  74 /   0  50  80  50
Hobart OK         49  67  54  74 /  10  70  70  20
Wichita Falls TX  51  72  58  77 /  10  60  60  20
Gage OK           47  58  49  66 /  10  70  80  50
Ponca City OK     45  69  57  72 /   0  50  80  70
Durant OK         52  73  62  75 /   0  20  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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