Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 010841
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN ADDITIONAL HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEK IS ANOTHER CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN FROM A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE LOCATIONS. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION NORTH OF AN ALVA TO OKLAHOMA CITY
TO ATOKA LINE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAREST THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING
WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 3 MILES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST.
FORCING WILL BE WEAK...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. ANY STORM
WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...EVEN LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMIT
INSTABILITY. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE MID 90S NEAR DURANT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE
DEEPEST. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SPARSE AND UNORGANIZED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POSSIBLE LARGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WENT WITH A HOT AND MAINLY DRY
FORECAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HINTED THAT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON COULD ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WIDESPREAD 100
DEGREE OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS. THE 18Z DGEX WAS COOLER...
SUPPRESSING THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  71  91  70 /  20  20  20  10
HOBART OK         87  71  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  10
GAGE OK           86  68  92  68 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  71  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
DURANT OK         96  73  96  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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