Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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810
FXUS64 KOUN 190245
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
845 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated temperature/dewpoint/weather forecast through 14Z based
on current trends/model guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Still expect
advection fog to develop after midnight. Mid to upper 50Fs
dewpoints will advect west-northwestward from northeast Texas
through the overnight hours. These dewpoints will be at or greater
than the forecast low temperatures for most locations, which is
conducive for fog development. Therefore, expect fog to initially
develop across southern Oklahoma/adjacent north Texas and spread
northward through the overnight hours.

The latest HRRR/HRRRX and SREF are also consistent with a fog
signal. With continued moisture advection, fog may persist well
after sunrise.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
IRF ceilings and visibilities will develop overnight and persist
into early Sunday afternoon at most TAF sites. South winds will
increase Sunday afternoon and thunderstorm chances increase along
the Red River later in the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Most of the fog has finally mixed out across western OK this
morning, with some stratus lingering east of I35 over SE OK. By
nightfall, expect the stratus to quickly redevelop and surge
northward. Fog will also be possible as early as ~06Z on the
eastern edge of the stratus, and then most locations through the
early morning Sunday. Some drizzle can`t be ruled out, but right
now think the moisture will be a bit too shallow.

By Sunday afternoon, height falls will increase across western
OK/TX as the mid to upper trough approaches. Moist convection
appears likely before sunset Sunday along and ahead of a dryline,
with increasing chances elsewhere later in the night as the trough
moves across the panhandles. The heaviest rain is still
anticipated over SE OK through the early morning Mon. Warmer temps
and clearing skies are expected by Monday afternoon area wide. The
warming trend will continue through Thu as a mid to upper ridge
axis moves overhead.

Finally, by Friday, an upper trough is expected to pass over the
Central Plains and send a cold front southward as early as Friday
morning. It appears too dry for any precip to impact our region
with this system. A much cooler and drier airmass will replace the
warm, moist one Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  68  56  75 /   0  30  60  10
Hobart OK         51  65  48  71 /   0  50  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  53  70  53  74 /   0  50  60  10
Gage OK           43  68  46  71 /   0  20  40  10
Ponca City OK     48  67  59  73 /  10  20  60  10
Durant OK         56  71  61  71 /   0  20  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/09



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