Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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085
FXUS64 KOUN 242009
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Early this afternoon, the center of a large western trough was
located over Utah. The low will lift slowly northeast into the
northern Plains over the next several days. Strong flow over the
western side of the trough will encourage a closed low to form
over the southwestern Untied States by Tuesday/Wednesday. A
relatively narrow region of very moist air extends from southwest
Texas, northward into the central and northern Plains, and is
associated with areas of precipitation.

A nearly stationary surface front over western and north Kansas/eastern
Colorado, will move southward today and enter northwest Oklahoma
by Monday afternoon. The surface front is expected to clear all
but far southeast Oklahoma by late Tuesday afternoon. Relatively
dry air behind the front and scattered to widespread precipitation
will result in rather cool temperatures for most of Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

With the movement of the trough and surface front fairly well established,
the main challenge will be timing of precipitation as well as
favored locations.

Stronger flow within the southern periphery of the western trough will
approach western Texas tonight. This will result in scattered to
widespread precipitation which should move into or develop across
western Oklahoma/western north Texas. Relatively high PW values
will result in areas of moderate to heavy rain, especially with
convection.

During the day Monday, favorable upper jet dynamics and an approaching
cold front should result in widespread showers and some storms,
especially across the northwest part of the state. Monday
afternoon and night, better rain and storm chances are expected to
shift east and south with a continued chance of moderate to heavy
rainfall.

Rain chances will remain rather high Tuesday as lift along and
near an elevated front should result in at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will remain
relatively low across south central and southeast Oklahoma.

By Wednesday, better rain chances are expected to be located over
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, but weak lift may
result in mainly areas of light rain elsewhere.

Weak mid level ridging Thursday, and another cool and dry air
mass on Friday, will bring an end to most of the precipitation by
late week.

Although heavy rainfall totals will be possible through
Tuesday/Wednesday, rainfall rates and the duration of the event
will limit the potential for flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  83  66  73 /  20  40  50  70
Hobart OK         68  77  63  69 /  60  70  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  71  85  69  78 /  30  40  60  70
Gage OK           66  71  56  66 /  60  80  70  50
Ponca City OK     70  85  64  72 /  20  40  60  70
Durant OK         69  88  69  87 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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