Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 212351
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
651 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.AVIATION...22/00Z TAF Issuance...
A frontal boundary continues to sink southward across the region.
Behind the front, at sites across western, central, and northern
Oklahoma, northeast winds will remain increased, with some gusts
exceeding 20 kts through the first few hours of the TAF period.
Overnight, expect clouds to increase and ceilings to gradually
approach MVFR through day break. Winds will relax slightly,
shifting to a more easterly direction through Wednesday. Expect
ceilings to remain broken to overcast through much of the day.
MVFR ceilings may flirt with IFR across central Oklahoma,
including KOKC and KOUN in the last half of the period.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Elevated instability and weak disturbances aloft will result in
a chance, albeit quite small, of showers and isolated
thunderstorms this evening into Wednesday across much of our
forecast area.

At the surface, a cold front (located approximately along I-44)
will continue its southward movement tonight, bringing cooler air
into the region. Clouds that are expected to form within the
cooler airmass will further restrict daytime warning tomorrow,
bringing highs down to roughly the seasonal average (for the only
day this week).

On Thursday, a developing storm system to our west will bring a
chance of strong/severe storms to the western edge of our forecast
area, and as the storm advances east/northeast on Sunday,
strong/severe storms will be possible over the eastern half of our
area. THe greatest risk of severe storms appears to be the far
eastern part of our area, but model variation could allow for
storms beginning closer to I-35 in the afternoon.

Friday will be windy and drier, but moisture will return quickly
on Sunday, as another system arrives. There will be a short period
on Sunday when severe weather will be possible, particularly over
south-central and central Oklahoma...again depending on model
solution, but the ECMWF and GFS are similar enough to cause
concern.

The weather early next week is not as well defined, as model
disparities increase quickly after the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  65  56  77 /  10  30  10  10
Hobart OK         49  66  56  80 /  10  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  55  76  59  83 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           42  61  51  81 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     46  58  53  76 /  10  20  30  20
Durant OK         61  72  57  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/04



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