Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 150506
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1106 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Although MVFR conditions with ceilings or some BR are not
completely out of the question at KOKC, KOUN and KSPS, the signal
continues to decrease at these terminals and have removed the
TEMPO groups from the TAFs Thursday morning with this set of TAFs.
South winds will increase after sunrise and become more
southwesterly in man areas through the day. A cold front will move
through the area late in this period. Right now it looks like an
initial wind shift will shift winds from southwesterly to
northwesterly or north, with stronger north/northeasterly winds
moving in later.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 848 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/

UPDATE...
Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire for parts of western
Oklahoma this evening. Made small adjustments to all weather
elements tonight, but no major changes.

DISCUSSION...
Warmer and breezy conditions can be expected tonight.

South to southwest surface winds will continue to bring warmer air
to Oklahoma and north Texas. Don`t think temperatures will fall
much tonight due to the breezy conditions and increasing mid/high
level cloud cover to limit radiational cooling. Surface dewpoints
will be quite high in many locations, in the 50s to near 60F
southeast of a Seymour, Texas to Enid line which is near daily
climatological maximum values for this time of year.

Some patchy fog may occur and reduce visibilities below 3 miles
near and east of Atoka and Durant tonight. Chose not to mention
thinking low level winds will be strong enough (above 10 mph) to
mix the low level moisture into stratus and keep visibilities
above 3 miles in these areas.

Latest HRRR runs have been suggesting some light radar echoes may
occur later tonight into Thursday morning across Oklahoma and
north Texas from some increasing mid level moisture. Do not think
this precipitation will reach the ground due to abundant dry air
between 1500 and 10000 ft AGL.

Near record highs are expected on Thursday. Daily record highs for
February 15 are 81F at Oklahoma City set in 1954, 85F at Wichita
Falls set in 2000, and 83F at Lawton set in 1954. These records
may be in jeopardy.

Wildfire danger will again be Elevated to Near Critical
on Thursday. Will not issue a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag
Warning at this time for Thursday thinking 20ft winds will stay
generally below 20 mph, especially with abundant mid/high level
cloud cover to limit vertical mixing. However, will closely
monitor as surface winds west of the dryline in western Oklahoma
were much stronger this past afternoon than previously forecast
and depicted by most model guidance.

Products have been updated.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
Most of the signal is that stratus should mainly remain southeast
of the TAF sites tonight/Thursday morning, but there is enough of
a signal of high low-level RHs in the NAM that will at least keep
a TEMPO group with some visibilities of around 5SM and MVFR
ceilings of 015-025 at KOKC, KOUN, KLAW and KSPS. Winds will veer
soon after sunrise Thursday quickly mixing out and MVFR conditions
that do develop. Winds veer above the surface overnight and
become quite strong leading to some LLWS. Have put a generally SW
wind at 020 feet in the wind shear group, but this will be
somewhat variable overnight starting more SSW and becoming more
WSW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Strong winds, along with warm and very dry air, have caused
Critical fire weather conditions in far western Oklahoma this
afternoon. Tomorrow promises to be another warm day, although the
axis of maximum temperatures will shift farther east tomorrow.
Though it will again be warm and dry, the approach of a cold front
will dull the south-southwest winds in northwest Oklahoma, but
winds will likely be a problem farther south. Fortunately for fire
concerns, the stronger winds and lower humidities will probably
not coincide tomorrow.

A strong cold front will bring a dose of reality to the region as
winter reasserts itself in Oklahoma and north Texas. Temperatures
will be 30 to 40 degrees F colder Friday afternoon, compared to
Thursday afternoon. Low chances for precipitation will follow the
front, but if any precipitation does occur, it will probably be
very light.

As southerly winds return late Sunday into Monday, moisture and
modest instability will bring our first chance for thunderstorms
in a while. The forecast wind shear, instability, and overall
synoptic setup suggest a possibility of a few marginally severe
storms over the eastern quarter or so of our forecast area.

Another cold front early next week will lower temperatures again,
and some of the expected precipitation may be freezing or frozen
(freezing rain, sleet, or snow). At this time, it appears that
the ice/snow areas will not coincide with areas of significant
precipitation amounts, but we will have to keep an eye on that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  81  32  41 /   0   0  20  10
Hobart OK         52  81  33  42 /   0   0  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  57  84  39  43 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           52  78  26  41 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  80  29  41 /  10  10  10  10
Durant OK         58  78  42  46 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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