Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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127
FXUS64 KOUN 101805
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
METEOROLOGICALLY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH AS
MENTIONED THIS MORNING... ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES BREAK OUT NEARBY. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS AFFECTING ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS IS
DEFINITELY LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS... BUT SOMETHING FOR
PILOTS TO BE AWARE OF. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS OK AND N TX THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND N TX TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IF WILDFIRES OCCUR.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
PATTERN...AND IN FACT...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND GENERATE DRY AND WARM
DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP...PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRES. AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE WILL UPGRADE ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORMER FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR TOMORROW. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH ON FRIDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL REACH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST...AND THE COOL-DOWN HERE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND MINOR.

AS MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         76  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  40  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  31  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  30  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         69  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ014>031-
     033>042-044>046.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/01



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