Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221809
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
109 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA /KGAG OR KWWR/ BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WESTERN FRINGE OF UPPER RIDGE
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE NEAR NW OK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS E/NE AND MAYBE CENTRAL OK AS A MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OVERHEAD AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL OK. WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SCHC POPS FOR THE NW FA FOR NOW...AND ADJUST LATER IF
NECESSARY. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND
CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BY 1-2 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONT TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ALMOST DAILY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND MAY AFFECT FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE REMAINS LOW POPS
FOR THIS MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING POTENTIAL.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AROUND MID-
WEEK THIS UPCOMING WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SFC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

OTHERWISE... BEFORE THIS OCCURS WILL CONTINUE WITH HOT DAYS AND
VERY WARM NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE DAYTIME HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 TODAY. OVERALL TREND IS FOR A GRADUAL DROP IN
DEWPOINTS... WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE HUMIDITY ISSUES...
KEEPING US BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  99  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 103  76 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  74  98  74 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK    100  76  99  73 /  10  10   0   0
DURANT OK         98  76 100  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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