Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 012025
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK...AND THEN MOVE SSE PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL
OK AROUND MIDNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A SFC LOW RESIDES OVER NE OK WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW FROM IT INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS N CENTRAL OK
INTO S KS. A CU FIELD IS PRESENT S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT
IT`S UNCLEAR HOW FAST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR SINCE
THERE IS LITTLE MID TO UPPER ASCENT PRESENT. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8 C/KM AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAGS AROUND 40 KT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WILL SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL UP TO AT LEAST THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NW AND N CENTRAL OK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THESE STORMS COULD
ALSO POSE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH DECREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH COVERAGE AFTER
18Z SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS DURING THAT TIME. THE FA
WILL BE DIVIDED WITH NEAR AVG TEMPS NORTH AND ABOVE AVG TEMPS
SOUTH. BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT IT DOES APPEAR A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER C/N OK DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH SO KEPT LOW POPS IN THROUGH
12Z. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEAR FOR A WHILE WITH THE
RIDGE BECOMING DOMINATE AGAIN. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO...OR EVEN BELOW...AVG WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  94  75  95 /  30  30  20   0
HOBART OK         76  98  75  97 /  30  10  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  99  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           67  94  73  97 /  20  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  90  75  95 /  60  40  20   0
DURANT OK         76  95  75  95 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/03



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