Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 232328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...
BUT MOST OF THE RAIN/STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO FORECAST CONCERNS... FIRST... THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DIVING S/SW ACROSS ERN OK. SECOND... THE HEAT CONTINUES.

CURRENTLY... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN
OK. ALONG THE BOWING SEGMENT OF THIS LINE... THE NWS IN TULSA
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF DOWN TREES AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE... ARW/NMM/HRRR/RAP... THE WHOLE GANG... CONTINUE
TO TURN THIS CONVECTION SW THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE NO QUALMS WITH
THE GENERAL SOLUTION... GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE H500 RIDGE AND HOW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OK/AR OZARKS. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
WEST ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN... DEVELOPING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER
THETA E AIR/INSTABILITY... SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS S/SERN OK. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES... 8-10 C/KM AND SFC-
600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS IN THE 30 K RANGE. HAIL... NICKEL TO QTR
SIZE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR TOMORROW... HOWEVER... THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT. DPTS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY... BUT HEAT INDICES WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S.
WITH THAT SAID... DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL... WRN
AND SRN OK... AND WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z SAT (7PM CDT FRI). FOR THE
MOMENT... REMOVED COUNTIES ACROSS N CENTRAL OK FROM THE ADVISORY AS
HEAT INDICES TMRW WILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER... THEY
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP IN THE LOW/MID 100S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS REMAIN HOT... BUT A REPRIEVE IS ON TAP FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE
80S/90S AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  96  76 104 /  20   0   0  10
HOBART OK         73 100  74 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 101  76 106 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           70 100  76 105 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  92  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         74 100  74 104 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25/25



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