Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141738
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED.

-SHRA/-RA WILL BE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AND LOCATION
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ADDED VCSH FOR KOKC...KOUN...KLAW...KCSM...AND
KHBR. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 06Z. THUNDER POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK RADAR ECHOES THAT MOVED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...FOARD/HARDEMAN TX...HAVE ALMOST DISSIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT IS
APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN RAIN
EVENT GETS UNDERWAY LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCES
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HOWEVER...REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS IN
CASE THIS CHANGES.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
14/12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 14-16Z WITH INITIAL SURGE
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z
FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COMPACT MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TERMINALS THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  65  83  65 /  10  30  30  40
HOBART OK         79  65  83  65 /  10  20  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  66  83  68 /  10  20  20  40
GAGE OK           81  64  82  58 /   0  10  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  83  61 /   0  20  30  40
DURANT OK         78  65  83  69 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



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