Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 312356
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RAP & HRRR RUNS KEEP IT INACTIVE THERE, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION,
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LOW TSRA POPS THERE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING US DRY AND MAINTAINING SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL BE KEEPING ANY POPS OUT OF THERE, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
DURING THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
HINT A PACIFIC BASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEAR THE TIME PERIOD, IT
WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT LOW TSRA POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         70  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         71  94  71  94 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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