Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221732
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION... /For the 18z TAFs/
Vis satellite shows low stratus gradually expanding east across
central Oklahoma and OKC/OUN may see MVFR ceilings within an hour
or two. Higher probabilities of MVFR stratus through the afternoon
will continue across northwest and northern Oklahoma. Later this
evening low stratus should overspread much of the area, with some
visibility reductions expected too particularly at WWR/GAG.
There is some uncertainty on timing and how low ceilings will be,
and later forecasts/amendments will refine this.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

UPDATE...
Clouds will continue to increase across a good portion of the
area today. Due to clouds temps are slow to warm in NW parts of
the fa so lowered highs a few degrees. Moisture will continue to
increase across parts of the area today. Winds will also shift
from the NE towards the SE this afternoon and evening. Made
adjustments to hourly grids and sky cover to show current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR to MVFR ceilings across northern Oklahoma should
continue to develop southward this morning. Followed
RAP soundings which appear to have a decent handle on
current conditions. Therefore, low cloud development in
and around HBR/LAW/SPS this morning is questionable.

A south to southeast wind will return this evening and
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Lower clouds should continue to develop to the west and south
this morning but may not develop into southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas.  Above this cloud layer, mid to high clouds
will stream across the area through at least the late morning.
Regional radar data show some light returns associated with
this cloud cover. Expect lower moisture will remain capped, but
maybe enough buoyancy for a few showers.

Clouds that remain this afternoon and evening, should begin to erode
to the north overnight Wednesday into Thursday or at least the
overall cloud depth will decrease.  Models differ some on low
level moisture profiles with the EC model a little drier.

Strong gusty winds will develop during the day Thursday, as
surface low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. Frequent
wind gusts above 40 mph appears likely by Thursday afternoon. A
Wind Advisory may be required for a good part of the forecast
area.

Thunderstorms are still expected to develop across the Panhandles
and western Kansas late Thursday afternoon and evening.  Although
instability will remain somewhat weak, shear will support some
severe storms. Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to
decrease Thursday evening and night, but may be enough to provide
much needed precipitation to western Oklahoma and northern Texas.

A dryline/cold front will move across the western half of Oklahoma
by early afternoon Friday. To the east, strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially across
southeast Oklahoma.  To the west, breezy, windy conditions will
increase fire weather concerns, especially across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Another trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on
Sunday. The Thursday/Friday system will not displace Gulf moisture
to far to the south and east (Texas coast). Therefore, moisture
should rapidly return on Sunday ahead of the weekend system.
Shear and instability should be more than enough to support severe
storms by Sunday afternoon.

An active weather pattern will continue into next week. Reduced
POPs across the area Monday into part of Tuesday due to
coordination/timing issues.

Fire Weather...

Thursday...
Strong gusty winds are expected to develop by mid to late
morning with frequent gusts over 40 mph possible, especially
across the western half of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Although
temperatures are expected to warm into the lower and mid 80s,
afternoon humidity will remain near or above 30 percent.

Friday...
Better chance of Red Flag conditions developing by Friday
afternoon, especially across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas. Still unsure how much if any rain this area will
get with storms/showers Thursday night into early Friday.
However, wind gusts near over 40 mph are possible with afternoon
humidity near or below 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  30
Hobart OK         66  56  81  55 /  10  10  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  77  60  84  59 /  10  10  10  40
Gage OK           60  51  83  52 /  10  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     60  53  79  59 /  20  30  20  20
Durant OK         73  59  80  60 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/12



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