Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151742
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A ragged deck of clouds covers much of Oklahoma and north Texas at
midday. A few short-lived thunderstorms formed earlier today near
KOUN/KTIK from a mix of low-level convergence and instability
apparently resulting from heating the occured under one of the
holes in the cloud cover. As the clouds continue to decrease, more
surface heating is expected, and scattered thunderstorms will
likely result. These storms are most likely to occur over central
and north-central Oklahoma this afternoon, but should be isolated
enough that the probability of these storms affecting any specific
location is low. More organized storms will be possible overnight
as a small upper-lvel wave approaches from the southwest. And, as
a larger upper-level trough approaches tomorrow, it will induce a
tightening surface pressure gradient, with the attendant increase
in southerly surface winds once daytime vertical mixing gets
established around 14Z or 15Z.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1058 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

UPDATE...
Adjusted PoPs for this afternoon/early evening. See discussion
below.

DISCUSSION...
Storms have developed over the OKC metro late this morning ahead
of a mid level vort max. They remain fairly low topped and
insignificant, but as heating continues expect some strong to
severe storms from near Stillwater to Ponca City by this
afternoon. Main concern will be damaging winds from precip
loading, but hail will certainly be possible as well. Further
south, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are trying
to lift into the Red River but forcing is very weak right now.
This will likely change later this evening as west TX wave lifts
northeastward. Most of this activity, however, should remain
benign but heavy rainfall will be possible. Decreased PoPs out
west for today, and increased them a bit from central to northern
OK. Some minor adjustments were also made to temps and dewpoints
to account for current trends but overall MaxT not impacted too
much. All updated products will be out by the top of the hour.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  20
Hobart OK         75  93  73  94 /  30  30  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  76  96  76  95 /  50  30  30  30
Gage OK           72  90  67  90 /  50  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     75  92  70  90 /  50  40  60  10
Durant OK         76  92  75  91 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/23/23



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