Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 201154
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
654 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MVFR
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...SO SHOULD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDER MAY PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
LAW/SPS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WEAK LIFT INCREASES NEAR SPS
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  51  66  54 /  40  10  10  50
HOBART OK         66  50  65  53 /  20  20  10  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  54  67  56 /  40  40  30  60
GAGE OK           61  45  63  49 /  10  10  10  70
PONCA CITY OK     66  47  67  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         77  55  69  58 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-037-
     041>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$



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