Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS64 KOUN 242013
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
313 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convective inhibition and lack of focus will be the main limiting
factors for storm development this afternoon and evening. These
features will be least effective over the northwest half of
Oklahoma, and this is where we have 20 to 30% probabilities of
rainfall for this evening and tonight. Any storms that do form
will have sufficient instability available to generate marginal
severe weather. Relatively slow movement and high levels of
moisture availability will also provide some risk of flooding.

A weak front will provide more focus tomorrow, and continuing
instability with weaker inhibition suggests somewhat higher
chances for rain/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.

By Friday, ever-weakening wind shear will limit the ability of
storms to organize, but there will still be instability available.

For the remainder of the forecast period, the upper-level flow
will not change much, and rainfall will be highly dependent on
small-scale features that are not really predictable this far out.

A tropical system is forecast to develop in the western Atlantic
over the next few days. Based on the last several medium-range
model runs, it appears improbable that the system will
significantly affect Oklahoma or north Texas, but we will continue
to monitor the system in case there are any meaningful changes in
its progress.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  93  70  90 /  20  20  20  30
Hobart OK         70  92  68  91 /  30  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Gage OK           66  86  64  88 /  60  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  90  68  88 /  30  40  50  30
Durant OK         73  94  73  89 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/23



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.