Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 290451
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 12Z
TO 15Z TUES...BECOMING SOUTHERLY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND TRACK EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 18Z.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL THUNDER CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST...AFFECTING
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AND MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
OKC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT STILL IN
SOME OF THE MODELS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GOING POPS.
LATEST WRF MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECM AND BRINGING AXIS OF
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER BODY OF OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN MID
LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR KGAG/KWWR DOWN TO
KLAW/KSPS...AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY SW OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
OK AND N TX IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. OTHER SCT SHRA MAY
DEVELOP AT KCSM/KHBR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING EAST
WITH TIME.

A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VERY
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY...AND FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. ONLY SPORADIC
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...IF ANYTHING...THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK...PARTLY DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PARTLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  87  67  76 /  10  20  60  80
HOBART OK         67  84  66  82 /  30  40  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  70  93 /  20  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  80  64  75 /  30  40  80  70
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  66  77 /   0  10  60  80
DURANT OK         70  92  70  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/84


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