Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 181120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MAINLY BUILDING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR PNC AND PERHAPS OKC/OUN.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IS RATHER DEEP...5K FEET PER
KINX VWP...AND THIS SHOULD REACH OKC/OUN AROUND 14-15Z. AREA OF
RAIN IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF HBR/LAW/SPS.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS DEVELOPED
EARLIER ALONG AN 8H THETA-E GRADIENT PER RAP13. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VEER SOME ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN INTO THE
MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTFLOW/PROPAGATION MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS SKIRTING NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS COUNTIES EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAKE TEXOMA LINE.

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BETTER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE. HAVE TRENDED WITH
THE EC THIS MORNING WHICH MOVES REMNANTS INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION
WITH LITTLE OR NO HANDOFF INTO FASTER FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHIFT BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
CUTOFF LOW THAT LIFTS/OPENS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  87  70 /  30  10  10  20
HOBART OK         92  69  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  88  71 /  40  20  30  20
GAGE OK           91  67  85  69 /  10  10  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         90  70  88  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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