Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 291728
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
The main concern in the short term will be the possibility of
convection for the western TAF sites. Scattered showers and
storms are already near KCSM/KHBR with additional activity moving
into KPNC shortly. The coverage of activity should be greatest
near KPNC where a complex continues to slowly move west and will
mention a TEMPO group there with VCTS at the previously mentioned
sites. Should see some additional development closer to KGAG and
KWWR later this afternoon and will mention VCTS after 19z. Most
of this activity should diminish around sunset and will show this
in the TAFS. Can`t rule out a passing shower or storm for the
other TAF sites, but the probabilities are too low to mention at
this time. Some of the high-res guidance is showing redevelopment
of showers and storms near a stalled boundary in NW OK tomorrow
morning and will introduce VCSH for KGAG and KWWR just before
sunrise. VFR should prevail outside any restrictions within
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX/

DISCUSSION...
Overall, the current forecast is on track and only minor changes
have been made. We did opt to increase rain chances slightly
across northwest OK as several hi-res models show increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.
Elsewhere, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with afternoon
convection. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s
northwest to lower 90s southeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Patchy fog may impact CSM/HBR for an hour or two this morning,
otherwise mainly mid/high clouds through the day with VFR
conditions. Very similar air mass in place as the last few days,
so expect isolated thunder by aftn. Perhaps a bit higher
probability exits across west, so will keep a mention of thunder
late aftn into evening at GAG/WWR/CSM/HBR. Light east winds to
continue.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Easterly low level fetch today will continue to pull moisture
into the area from the Gulf of Mexico around the south side of
weak mid-level ridge over the southeast U.S. This along with parts
of the area under the influence of the upper low to our west
likely to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again
today. Although much of this activity will be diurnal in nature,
northwest Oklahoma will likely see activity linger through the
overnight period.

Similar situation for Tuesday, before eastern longer wave
trough takes shape, which will allow a weak surface front to drop
south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This may
result in a bit higher chances of rain across much of the area
before drier air works into the area Thursday. This should then
limit precip chances to mainly far western/southwestern parts of
the area, at least temporarily.

Models then develop longwave trough across the western conus by
the weekend with southerly low level flow returning. Some low
chances of rain may linger, but could also see temperatures climb
back to more seasonal readings or even a bit above.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  30
Hobart OK         89  69  89  69 /  50  30  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  92  71  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
Gage OK           87  65  86  65 /  50  40  50  50
Ponca City OK     89  69  89  69 /  30  20  40  40
Durant OK         94  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/27



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