Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 092105
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
305 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
Primary forecast concern is the the timing and the chance of
precipitation with a strong cold front next Wednesday.
For tonight, remnant cloud cover and southerly winds should
prevent temperatures from cooling off as much as last night for
A warming trend is expected to begin tomorrow as a warmer airmass
from west shifts eastward. Expect gusty southerly winds with
highs in the upper 40Fs and 50Fs. Consequently, wind chills will
stay in the 30Fs/40Fs for most locations even with the warmer
temperatures. Isentropic ascent may result in isolated
showers/drizzle Saturday night into Sunday morning--especially
across southeast Oklahoma.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday--especially
across the southern half of Oklahoma and adjacent western north
Texas. West to southwest low-level flow and 850 mb temperatures
near 13C should allow some locations to reach the near 70F Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, expect a dry cold frontal passage Sunday
afternoon. The airmass behind the cold front Sunday should be
seasonable with high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday in the
50Fs for most locations.
By Wednesday, another strong cold front is expected to pass by
the area. The greatest uncertainty is the timing of the front.
The 09/12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree with timing with the
front. For now, trended toward the faster solution of the GFS as
the solution is closer to the 09/06Z DGEX solution. Consequently,
falling or steady temperatures are expected across most locations
during the day Wednesday. Also opted to increase wind speeds
beyond blended guidance as the models tend to underestimate
surface winds in strong cold air advection regimes.
The chance of precipitation with the front looks low; however,
the GFS and DGEX (with the faster/shallower airmass) do indicate
some warm air advection above the shallow, cold airmass. Forecast
soundings indicate this could result in light freezing rain or
even sleet behind the cold front on Wednesday--especially across
north central Oklahoma. Introduced low chance of precipitation for
now across the north. In either scenario, expect a cold and dry
day on Thursday with high temperatures likely staying in the 30Fs.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 27 48 40 61 / 0 0 10 10
Hobart OK 28 49 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 29 53 44 69 / 0 0 10 10
Gage OK 26 49 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 46 38 55 / 0 0 10 10
Durant OK 28 49 42 68 / 0 0 30 20