Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 232323
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS WILL RELAX QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO PUSH EAST OF TAF SITES AS
MFVR CEILINGS DISSIPATE. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOME GUSTS TO OVER 20KTS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS STRONG WIND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

OVER THE PAST 2 TO 3 HOURS...ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WITH GUSTS
40 TO 54 MPH HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS CORRIDOR
OF STRONGER WINDS LAG ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT THAT WAS NEAR A SEMINOLE TO WAURIKA LINE AS OF 215 PM. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO...PONCA CITY...AND DUNCAN AREAS BEING AFFECTED BETWEEN
330 AND 6 PM WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH.

CURRENT ADVISORY IS IN FAIR SHAPE AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO EAST OF A ALVA TO VERNON TEXAS LINE
AS WINDS MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. NOT TO MENTION...ADVISORY
WINDS MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS EAST OF A SEMINOLE TO MARIETTA LINE
WHICH ARE NOT IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT EXTEND
OR EXPAND THE ADVISORY AS NOT SURE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BEYOND 6 PM WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH SOME
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL LIGHT AND SPOTTY. KEPT 20
TO 50 PERCENT MENTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR.
MODEL GUIDANCE LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK...MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S.

MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN TODAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. KEPT A DRY
FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THOUGH THE LATEST 12Z
NAM12 RUN INDICATED LIGHT QPF NEAR THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE OF DRY WEATHER SEEMS TO BE RATHER HIGH BEFORE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THANKSGIVING DAY...AS A FRONT MAY BE
NEARBY. LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A WARMER REGIME TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  33  58  30  54 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         31  57  29  54 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  59  33  57 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           27  55  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     31  55  26  50 /  50   0   0   0
DURANT OK         38  58  36  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>030-033>041-
     044>046-050.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

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