Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 151759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1159 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The November 15-16, 2017 18 UTC TAF discussion follows:


Stratus (~2000 ft AGL), currently across southern Oklahoma, will
continue to shift southward through this afternoon. The clearing
line is expected to pass by KLAW and KSPS this afternoon.
Elsewhere, expect unrestricted ceilings and visibilities through
the TAF period.

Gusty, northerly winds will weaken by this evening. These winds
will gradually veer to the southeast by tomorrow morning.

Some stratus may redevelop across far southern Oklahoma/adjacent
parts of north Texas; however, confidence for MVFR conditions are
south of KSPS/KLAW.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1002 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

Updated the temperature, dew point, and wind forecast through
00Z. Also decreased the chance of showers across southeast

A cold front continues to move southeastward across southern
Oklahoma this morning. Ahead of the cold front, a few showers
will remain possible across far southeast Oklahoma. Opted to
decease the chance of showers as ascent remains limited.

After the front passes by, temperatures will cool due to cold air
advection and limited insolation. However, with dry air advection
and isentropic descent, clouds will dissipate from south to north
through this afternoon. Once the clouds dissipate, temperatures
will begin to warm.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 544 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

15/12Z TAFs. IFR conditions will be seen at most terminals with
low stratus and areas of drizzle near and immediately behind cold
front that will progress over the region. VFR conditions will
spread southward by/toward 18Z as drier air filters into Oklahoma
and northern Texas. Strong north to northeast winds will be seen
across terminals through late afternoon with strongest winds
across southwest Oklahoma terminals. Winds will veer to more
easterly and subside toward and after 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

For this forecast, most of the time was spent on the short term
assessing low-level moisture/saturation depth and potential for
showers, some drizzle, and fog through the morning, and also fire
weather concerns Friday. Otherwise, little in the way of
impactful weather is anticipated.

09z observations across the area show the cold front extending
from near Blackwell to Kingfisher to Mangum. Some fog will be
possible behind the front through the early morning hours, but
spatial coverage and duration should be limited as drier air
gradually works in. Boundary layer thermal/moisture
characteristics looks a little less favorable for shallow
convective showers below the cap compared to yesterday, except
northeast portion of the area very early this morning. Deeper
convection will be confined to areas further east across southeast
Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma. Some showers or drizzle may
persist into the afternoon across the far southeast portion of
our area until low level moisture shifts south as the front

There is some potential for showers across the southeast late
Thursday through early Friday and southerly winds and low level
moisture advection occur again. Coverage should be limited and
amounts will be light.

For Friday, models have converged reasonably well on a slower
more positively tilted depiction of the upper trough. This will
force a cold front through Friday night. Ahead of the front,
veered low level flow and a plume of deeply mixed/downsloped air
will move over us. Temperatures will be anomalously warm with the
greatest warmth across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
where mid 80s may be reached for highs. Further east, some
stratus may linger and limiting temperatures some. This is the
more uncertain part of the forecast and refinements to temperature
gradients across the east may be needed depending on
magnitude/placement of low stratus that lingers into the
afternoon. Back to the west, model Bufkit soundings show potential
for deep mixing into belt of strong mid-level flow and momentum
transfer supportive of gusts potential at least to 35 mph. Post
frontal northwesterly winds could be just as strong on Saturday.

Progressive fairly low amplitude flow pattern means generally dry
conditions from Monday into early next week. Some amplification
does occur by Tuesday and Wednesday, and within increasingly
northwesterly flow aloft, a shortwave of varying strength and
timing in the medium range guidance could affect our area. This
would bring a low probability of showers.


By Friday afternoon a broad thermal ridge and anomalous warmth
will intersect with strong mid level westerlies and this will
increase fire weather concerns. Breezy conditions with gusts
potentially over 35 mph and minimum RH values as low as 20 percent
are looking increasingly likely across western Oklahoma and
perhaps a small portion of our western north Texas counties.
Preliminary assessment of humidiy and wind suggest the best
chance of reaching critical thresholds will be west of a line from
Alva to Clinton to Hollis.

Post frontal northwesterly winds could be just as strong and
despite temperatures not being anomalously warm, dry air mass will
combine with the wind to result in elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions across much of the area.

Latest ERC-G observations indicate slightly below normal values
relative to normal for mid-November. However, fuels are dormant.



Oklahoma City OK  40  62  54  80 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK         38  64  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  65  55  84 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           35  66  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     36  62  53  81 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         49  65  56  74 /   0  20  20  10




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