Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 261156
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...TRICKY FORECAST AGAIN THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE
LIFTING. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AT SPS...BUT NO IMPACTS
TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY
TURN TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY 12Z. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ENTER
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AFTER 12Z FRI...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED A MENTION IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FIRST...WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...GENERATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. ESPECIALLY FROM FOARD...BAYLOR...AND ARCHER COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A
DUSTING UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS WRITING...AND PRECIP IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN AS RAIN...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL UNDER
THE 2 INCH MARK...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...SHOULD HEAVIER BANDING DEVELOP...A SHORT FUSED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE SNOW SHOULD WRAP UP
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY...AS
WE PREPARE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO NONE OF THIS PRECIP TYPE NIGHTMARE
STUFF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE VERY
COLD DRY AIRMASS...A DRY SNOW WILL BEGIN AS SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. DOES THIS
REMIND ANYONE ELSE OF A DAY EARLIER THIS WEEK (MONDAY)? SOME
MODELS DO SUGGEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER
NORTH...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS IT EVOLVES. A CORRIDOR OF 1-3 INCH SNOW TOTALS APPEARS LIKELY
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELK CITY...TO
CHICKASHA...TO SULPHUR...INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE A
POSSIBILITY IN HEAVIER BANDS. ONE LIMITATION FOR GREATER SNOWFALLS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IS THE INCREASING DEPTH OF THE SURFACE DRY
AIRMASS...WHICH MAY PREVENT MUCH OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

AS IF TODAY AND FRIDAY WERE NOT ENOUGH...WE GET TO KEEP TALKING
ABOUT WINTER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. BROAD TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SMALL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SUCH SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE CROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY...BRINGING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY ACT TO WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE GROUND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRONOUNCED WARM
NOSE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES BELOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS
TIME DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT ICING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EXACTLY HOW
LONG THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN LAST WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON THE EXTENT OF SFC WARM ADVECTION...WHICH LOOKS RATHER
WEAK RIGHT NOW. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE
WARMED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION...AND MELTING OF ANY ICING THAT OCCURS.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
ADEQUATE MOISTENING AND WARMING MAY HAVE OCCURRED FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BY TUESDAY...AS A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  17  26  20 /   0  10  40  30
HOBART OK         34  17  24  20 /  10  20  70  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  21  27  24 /  20  10  80  30
GAGE OK           28  13  21  16 /   0  20  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     30  12  24  18 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         36  21  29  24 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-027-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

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