Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200253
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
953 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to increase pops this evening and overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Despite the anemic-looking echoes in the west, low-level shallow
rain development has allowed most mesonet sites to record
measurable rain in the last hour, even pushing .04 inches/hour at
the Taloga and Watonga mesonet sites where even the mosaic radar
shows no echoes. The hi-resolution models suggest this activity
will persist through 06z in the west, then pivot northeast with
time overnight. Although precipitation amounts will be light, have
increased pops across much of the area as it looks more likely
that measurable rain will be recorded at quite a few stations
overnight. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were needed
elsewhere in the forecast overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF discussion follows.

AVIATION...
Primarily MVFR conditions expected to prevail first 2 to 4 hours
of forecast before cigs lower and areas of drizzle/fog try to
develop. IFR conditions expected most of the night through at
least 15-17Z tomorrow before strengthening and veering flow helps
to lift cigs into the MVFR/VFR categories with scattered clouds
appearing possible late in period central/southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas. Winds will remain light and veer to southerly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is spread over several days, with strong to
severe thunderstorm chances developing near daily from Saturday
through early next week.

Currently, scattered light rain and drizzle continues to impact
various portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas. A modest 500mb
short wave continues to lift eastward across the northern Panhandles
and along the Oklahoma/Kansas border. The best chance for measurable
rainfall will exist into the evening across north central Oklahoma,
near the greatest focus of isentropic ascent and support from the
700mb frontal boundary. Overnight, low chances for light rain and
drizzle will continue as the short wave exits to the east.
Additionally, an overcast low level stratus deck will remain
blanketed across the region, with some breaks developing overnight
through the early morning hours. For Friday, expect dry, but humid
conditions as southerly return flow picks up as brief ridging sets
up over the Panhandles and western Oklahoma.

Saturday, with the western trough strengthening the ridging over the
plains will begin to shift eastward, also strengthening over the
plains. In response, low level moisture return will increase,
especially into the afternoon, with a dryline developing over the
panhandles in association with a surface trough developing along the
front range. Expect sufficient SBCAPE to manifest ahead of the
dryline, on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/KG given current mid-range
guidance. However, deep layer shear is less than impressive given
weak mid-level wind fields with the lack of a strong short wave or
similar forcing mechanism. Therefore, current thoughts are for
isolated storms to form along the boundary over the panhandles into
southwestern Kansas/southeastern Colorado. Instability will support
large hail development even with weak to modest shear. Storms will
likely form into a broken line before pushing into western Oklahoma
late in the evening and overnight.

Sunday, scattered thunderstorms will likely be lingering through the
morning hours, while the dry line that stalled over the eastern
Panhandles Saturday night retreats back to the west before
redeveloping into the afternoon becoming a focus for storm
development once again in the mid to late afternoon hours in the
Panhandles and into western Oklahoma. Recovery will play a major
role in instability development, but current guidance suggests
sufficient instability once again ahead of the boundary. With better
mid-level support from a weak short wave, deep layer shear will be a
skosh better than Saturday, but large damaging hail will remain the
primary concern.

Monday through Wednesday, With the slow evolution of the large
western trough and continual short waves moving across the region,
thunderstorm chances will exist nearly every afternoon. Of course,
long range guidance isn`t the best for resolving mesoscale features,
but enough consistency between solutions will maintain the chances
for strong to severe storms developing Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday as a surface low finally develops and moves eastward
across the southern half of the plains.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  74  58  81 /  40  10  10  10
Hobart OK         53  75  59  84 /  50  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  55  78  59  86 /  40  10   0  10
Gage OK           51  75  58  84 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     52  74  58  80 /  40  10  10  20
Durant OK         57  77  60  83 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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