Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 202357
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ONE SUPERCELL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES BETWEEN HOLLIS
AND QUANAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A LINE
OF STORMS OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
ALL STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. A FEW HAIL REPORTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z.

TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
02-10Z. ADDED MENTION AT MANY SITES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 12-21Z...BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS BATCH OF ELEVATED STORMS. STORMS DEVELOPING
TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS WILL ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
LUBBOCK/MIDLAND. PRIMARY AREAS THAT WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ARE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST-QUARTER
OF OKLAHOMA.

IF WE CAN GET COMPLEX OF STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUST OFF TEXAS HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. BETTER
FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
BE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON DRYLINE EVENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF REGION AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT PROGD TO RETURN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BODY OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE S/WV RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF NEXT MAIN TROUGH...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  77  55  80 /  60  50  10   0
HOBART OK         60  79  54  81 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  80  56  83 /  60  20  10   0
GAGE OK           56  79  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  77  50  80 /  60  40  10   0
DURANT OK         60  76  58  80 /  70  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17


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