Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 252334
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 26/00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE NEAR KSPS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KSPS THROUGH 01Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF
SITES. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KGAG AND KWWR TOWARD
12Z...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THESE
SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 12-15Z... WHICH WOULD AFFECT KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET...THEN DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS A MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. MODELS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO BOTH
THE WAVE AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

A SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY...BUT THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES.

DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  91  68  93 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         69  95  72  97 /  10   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  95  71  98 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           67  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     62  90  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         67  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/10/10


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