Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 172348
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
548 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have high confidence in VFR conditions at all sites before
09 UTC Sunday. After 09 UTC, confidence is increasing that
worsening conditions will occur across parts of Oklahoma and
north Texas.

Believe that MVFR or lower conditions will move northward and
arrive at sites east of KLTS-KCSM-KAVK 09-15 UTC. KWWR and KGAG
may also be affected by MVFR or lower conditions, though
confidence is too low to mention these lower conditions at these
two sites. Even IFR/LIFR conditions with BR/FG could occur near
KOKC, KOUN, KSPS, and KLAW 12-16 UTC.

All sites should become MVFR or better after 18 UTC Sunday.

Chances for -RA are too low to mention at any TAF site at
this time.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Overnight, patchy fog may develop across southeastern and
south central Oklahoma where the wind will remain light
overnight. Low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado on
Sunday, which will result in moisture return from southern and
central Texas. A rather windy day is expected which will increase
fire weather concerns, especially northwestern Oklahoma. Drier air
may remain through the afternoon which will result in afternoon
humidity between 25-30 percent, perhaps lower. A fire weather
watch will be issued for a few counties in northwest Oklahoma.

At this time, it appears that rather warm 85h temperatures will
keep elevated convection chances rather low Sunday into Monday.
Most of the precipitation will be east and south of the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. The exception may be south
central and southeastern Oklahoma.

A dryline will push to around Highway 81 Monday afternoon, perhaps
farther east. A rather narrow axis of higher instability is
expected along and just east of the dryline Monday afternoon.
Surface/boundary layer convection will likely remained capped
through the afternoon.

Better chances or rain and elevated storms will arrive Monday night
into Tuesday as a western trough approaches. This should also
coincide with a few embedded disturbances moving through
increasing southwest flow aloft.

Additional rain and some storms may develop along a cold front which
is expected to move across most of western and central Oklahoma
during the day Tuesday. As colder air filters into the state
behind the front, there may be an opportunity for rain to change
to freezing rain across central and south central Oklahoma late
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Rain chances will increase again by Friday of next week as
another trough develops/moves across the western United States.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  64  58  73 /   0  10  20  30
Hobart OK         38  71  57  77 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  40  71  61  79 /   0  20  30  20
Gage OK           38  72  54  75 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     34  62  56  73 /   0  10  20  30
Durant OK         41  59  58  69 /   0  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for OKZ004-005-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17


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