Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231636 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Increased rain chances through 4 pm this afternoon across western
north Texas. Increased highs slightly in western north Texas and
western Oklahoma.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cool, breezy day will continue today with some chances for
light showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms.

Made the changes to rain chances based on latest radars and HRRR
model guidance. It appears the highest chances for light rain
will stay near and just south of the Red River through the middle
of the afternoon. Additional light showers will occur east and
southeast of Oklahoma City as well early this afternoon.

Decreasing clouds are expected in most locations through the
afternoon hours which will allow for some heating. Due to
unusually cold air aloft (700 mb temperatures -5C from northern
Oklahoma to +2C near and south of the Red River, near
climatological minimums for this time) and some heating, isolated
showers may form nearly anywhere after 4 pm, then quickly
dissipate 7 to 9 pm. Kept thunder mention south of a Crowell, TX
to Wichita Falls to Purcell to Chandler line where latest HRRR
runs have been depicting MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg. No strong or severe
storms are expected this afternoon, though pea size hail could
occur with any shower/storm due to the unseasonably cold air
aloft.

Highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of
Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon, about 10-15 degrees
below average.

Products will be updated shortly.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 707 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR conditions continue across areas southeast of the cold
front moving through the area today, but this is becoming less of
an issue at the TAF sites with the arrival of the front. Some rain
(or more likely virga) will continue, mainly behind the front. The
most likely airports to get rain are at KGAG, KWWR and KPNC where
a tempo group has been included. Some light rain is not out of the
question elsewhere, but not high enough chances for a tempo group.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through the area this morning. Scattered
showers will persist today while a upper wave pivots through the
area. Overall, cooler weather is expected the next couple of days,
before warming significantly late this week as upper ridge moves
over the Plains. Troughing redevelops form the Canadian prairies
into the southwestern United States late this week with our next
chance of scattered showers/storms Friday through Monday as this
trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  48  71  52 /  40   0   0   0
Hobart OK         69  47  77  53 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  50  78  55 /  50   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  44  75  52 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  45  69  48 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         71  51  73  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/25


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