Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 162037
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE RATHER POOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...ADEQUATE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BEGINNING FIRST OVER
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN/CLOUDINESS AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION...POST FRONTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
IMPULSES...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
DEPICT A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAIN POOR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  61  46  74 /  10  70  20  10
HOBART OK         48  57  43  72 /  10  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  63  49  75 /  10  50  30  10
GAGE OK           44  55  37  73 /  40  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     46  59  41  74 /  10  70  20  10
DURANT OK         47  66  52  74 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

JTK/AUSTIN


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