Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 251607
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...OPTED TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE VORTEX IN THE TX PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE ENTERING OUR CWA...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY MOVE
INTO SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A FEW -TSRA MAY BE NEAR KGAG AND KWWR AFTER 19Z...BUT CHANCES
OF DIRECTLY AFFECTING EITHER OF THESE SITES REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MENTION.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. DETERMINING IF A FEW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY
REMAINS CHALLENGING.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

TODAY...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. KEPT ISOLATED
STORM WORDING...10 TO 20 PERCENT COVERAGE...THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY 3 TO 10 PM WEST OF A
ALVA TO HOLLIS LINE WHERE A LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY. LATEST
HRRR RUNS INDICATED VERY LIGHT SPOTTY STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EAST...CLOSER TO A ENID TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...BUT THIS SEEMS
OVERDONE DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE
97 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. KEPT LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE ALSO MAY BE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST OF A ADA TO MARIETTA
LINE...BUT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND AMOUNT OF CAPPING...CHOSE
NOT TO MENTION...AS COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE UNDER 15 PERCENT. HIGHS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN MANY LOCATIONS.

MBS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SET TO AFFECT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK. SADLY...THEY ALSO DEPICT A MUCH WEAKER
FRONT...MEANING LESS COLD ADVECTION AND GENERALLY WARMER-THAN-
DESIRED TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY FAST WITH THIS UPPER
LOW/FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS... BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER STORM WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO HOLD THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. STILL...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE BY
MONDAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100  73  99  73 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK        102  72 101  73 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 102  74 101  75 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK          102  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK    100  74  98  75 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         98  75  99  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

10/14



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