Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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198
FXUS64 KOUN 072122
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
322 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As discussed in the late morning update, the high resolution
models have been advertising a consistent signal of an area of
light precipitation moving southeast across northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area... although with the exception of a
little drizzle that had developed just northeast of the okc
metro... this has been slow in developing and have not seen any
observations of drizzle at observation sites yet. Will keep some
low pops in the east for the chance of drizzle, and with the wet
bulb temperatures near or below zero in northern areas, the chance
of freezing drizzle. However, with very light precipitation
amounts and warm ground, impacts should be relatively low. Colder
air will continue to spread into the area tonight. Low temperatures
Friday morning will be the coolest we`ve seen this season.

There will be low chance of precipitation north and east on
Saturday night through Sunday night as an upper trough and surface
front moves through the area. A more significant surge of cold air
will be possible towards the middle of next week, but medium
range models are quite diverse with how this plays out. ECMWF is
much colder with the airmass moving into the area next Tuesday.
At least at 850 mb, the operational GFS is a on the warm side of
the GFS ensemble envelope, but there is up to a 21 degree Celsius
spread in the 850 mb temperatures among the GFS ensemble members
in some areas of the forecast area. Will go slightly below
initialization temperatures for Tuesday right now, and will be
watching trends in these forecasts over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  20  34  16  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         20  35  17  40 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  25  38  20  42 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           15  31  14  41 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     16  32  11  35 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         28  39  22  43 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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