Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  84  62  78 /   0  10  40  10
HOBART OK         56  85  59  80 /   0  20  40   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  86  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
GAGE OK           57  85  51  77 /   0  40  50   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  84  61  75 /   0   0  40  20
DURANT OK         57  83  62  79 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25


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