Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 041651 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...04/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON... SLOWLY CLEARING WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING.
OVERALL... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OK... PRIMARILY EAST
OF I-35. OVERNIGHT... ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S/SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK... LIKELY IMPACTING
KPNC.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON.
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

MAD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
AND GENERALLY WEAKEN. IT WILL BE A WET COMMUTE THIS MORNING NEAR
OKLAHOMA CITY...ENID...AND PAULS VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THIS MORNING...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...ONE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ONE OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE TWO COMPLEXES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. EXPECT
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW CLIMO TEMPS
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...MERGING INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FAVOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...POSSIBLY BRINGING
THIS STORM COMPLEX INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

MID LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND MUCH
HOTTER CONDITIONS AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE
DAYS OF MOST CONCERN REGARDING LIFE THREATENING HEAT WILL BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES...WITH SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BOASTING 110 DEGREE HEAT PLUS HEAT INDICES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...DOMINANT RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  98  76 100 /  20  10  10   0
HOBART OK         73 102  76 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76 104  80 106 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69 100  72 102 /  10  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  93  74  97 /  50  20  20   0
DURANT OK         76  99  79 100 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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