Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 232256
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016
VFR conditions to continue through forecast. A weak sfc trough will
move south across parts of western oklahoma overnight. This trough
will weaken and lift back north on monday. Winds on either side of
this boundary will remain rather weak. Otherwise, mainly high clouds
with perhaps some daytime cu by monday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
The main forecast challenge of the day is determining chances for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Above
average temperatures will continue through at least the end of the
upcoming week. No major changes were made to the previous forecast.
Tonight, quiet weather can be expected. Abundant mid and high
level cloud cover will linger over southern Oklahoma and north
Texas, but no rain is anticipated due to dry air below 15000 ft
AGL. There is an outside chance of patchy fog formation late
tonight into Monday morning as low level moisture slowly
increases, mainly near and just north of a weak surface trough
that will form near a Sayre to Clinton to Stillwater line. Did not
mention as not sure this will occur. Model guidance lows in the
upper 40s in northwestern Oklahoma to the lower 60s in far southern
Oklahoma and north Texas appeared to be reasonable.
Monday, more sun is expected compared to today across much of the
area with highs not too far from today`s readings.
Monday night into Tuesday, dry weather can be expected with
increasing surface humidity and high level cloud cover.
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, it still appears a
mid/upper level disturbance and cold front will bring some rain
chances to the area. Increasing moisture, instability, and shear
still support the potential for a mainly few elevated strong to
perhaps severe thunderstorms with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy downpours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly
northeast of a Gage to Ardmore line. Redevelopment of storms could
occur near a cold front somewhere near or just southeast of I-44
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The details with this system
remain uncertain. Widespread rainfall seems unlikely.
Late Wednesday night through next Sunday, dry weather and above
average temperatures will likely continue along with mid/upper
level ridging. Temperatures may not be too far from record levels
Friday through Sunday, though there is some uncertainty on how
warm it will get as a cold front may be nearby. The warm
temperatures combined with increasing surface winds and decreasing
humidity may increase fire weather concerns Friday through Sunday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 56 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 56 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 61 82 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 47 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 53 78 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 59 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 0