Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 290210
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
FA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING TO
BETTER SHOW CURRENT THINKING AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS AND SKY COVER TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WEST BY 12Z FRI. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
NUMEROUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY ON FRI. MFVR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WILL CONT INTO THE AFTN OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST
OK AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY IMPACT MANY SITES FRI AFTN.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER WEST TEXAS...NEAR LUBBOCK. THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WHILE ON A WEAKENING TREND.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
STORMS...THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH
ELEVATED STORMS LATER TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL.

IT IS NOT YET QUITE CLEAR HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
TOMORROW...BUT THE MORNING STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH DURING THE MORNING...WHILE WEAKENING...AND
FINALLY DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT NEW
STORMS WILL FORM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
THOSE WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN THE TWO
THUNDERSTORM EPISODES. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EVENT AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT
ENTIRELY...EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DRY DAYS...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...EXPECT ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO
MAKE ANY SPECIFIC FORECASTS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AS THE MODEL
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EACH RUN THAT FAR
OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  73  51  74 /  70  70  60  10
HOBART OK         58  76  48  73 /  70  70  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  82  52  77 /  60  60  20  10
GAGE OK           53  66  42  68 /  70  70  40  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  70  52  72 /  50  70  80  10
DURANT OK         63  77  61  80 /  70  90  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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