Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 210444 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

21/06Z TAFs. Increase in VFR cigs late tonight and tomorrow. MVFR
conditions appear likely after 00Z across northern Oklahoma where
lower cigs and higher chances for vsby restrictions in rain. Will
mention MVFR conditions across central Oklahoma terminals toward
end of forecast period. For this cycle, will not mention TSRA.
Moderate south/southwest winds south of surface low will be
forecast mainly southwest OK and KSPS latter part of forecast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

00Z TAFs.

The gusty southwest winds will subside within the next couple of
hours, although pick up again late Saturday morning in some areas.
VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

Primary forecast focus is on rain chances this weekend.

Currently, a weak surface low continues to churn east/northeast
across southeastern Kansas. In response, overcast low clouds have
persisted into this afternoon across northern Oklahoma, which has
impacted temperatures, keeping them cooler, through this afternoon.
Expect this region of clouds to gradually clear through the late
afternoon. At the same time, an additional surface low, noticable on
20z surface analysis, over the Panhandles has resulted in increased
southwest winds. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts to around
30 to 35 at times will be possible through this afternoon, relaxing
this evening as the low exits eastward across Kansas with its parent
500mb short wave.

Overnight, expect southwesterly winds to remain relaxed, gradually
becoming more southerly through the early morning hours. Do not
anticipate any fog development, like the past few evenings, as south
and southwesterly winds early will hamper sufficient surface moisture

Saturday, mid to high clouds will begin to increase from West Texas
into western Oklahoma through the morning hours. Mid-range guidance
remains in decent agreement with the progression of the western
trough and associated surface low/Pacific front. Overall, classic
return flow from the Gulf will be brief, if much at all, with
available moisture carried eastward by the trough. Struggled with
precipitation chances given the overall lack of moisture
anticipated. However, still increased chances in northern Oklahoma
Saturday night into Sunday, as this location still appears to have
the best chance for up to a tenth of precipitation overnight. Expect
rain, primarily, with a slight chance of thunder at times from north
Texas into western and central Oklahoma, due to some weak
instability possible.

After Sunday, the forecast remains dry and warm, with highs Monday
and Tuesday in the 60s for most. Fire weather conditions will be
near critical on Tuesday, as breezy southwest winds and minimum RH
values in the 20s develop in southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Temperatures will cool midweek, as a frontal boundary drops
southward, no precipitation in the forecast, but highs will be in
the 40s to 50s through Friday.



Oklahoma City OK  41  64  41  56 /   0  10  50  30
Hobart OK         40  63  38  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  45  68  42  61 /   0  30  20  10
Gage OK           34  60  35  55 /   0  30  50  10
Ponca City OK     36  62  39  55 /   0   0  60  20
Durant OK         48  68  45  59 /   0  20  40  20




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