000
FXUS64 KOUN 280125
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO REMOVE THE HEAT HEADLINES
AND TO MODIFY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM... ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LOWER POPS AND CONFINE TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST LIKELY FOR
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTH... AND HAVE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING BETWEEN KSPS AND KLAW ALONG INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF KLAW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING TSRA AT KSPS. THUS TSRA WILL BE LEFT
OUT OF INITIAL FORECAST AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT OF KSPS IMPACT THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KCSM/KOUN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT ELY WIND
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE GOOD OPPORTUNITIES THE NEXT FOUR MORNINGS FOR RAIN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY. THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. SINCE A
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FROM THIS, MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL LIKELY BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS STILL IN OKLAHOMA,
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN JUST VERY WARM INSTEAD OF VERY HOT
AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  87 /  20  30  10  20
HOBART OK         70  87  68  86 /  40  40  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  89  70  89 /  30  40  30  30
GAGE OK           66  83  64  82 /  20  30  20  60
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
DURANT OK         76  91  69  90 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$