Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180446
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.AVIATION...
TAFS 1806/1906...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft is providing a fairly standard summer night across
Oklahoma and north Texas. Have made some minor adjustments to the
sky cover forecast for tonight, but no other changes are planned
this evening.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

AVIATION...
TAFS 1800/1824...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a southeast to
south wind.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is on persistent hot temperatures through
the week.

Currently, a bullish 500mb ridge continues to build, with it`s axis
impinging towards the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region. In
response, a surface ridge continues to hold from eastern Oklahoma to
the nearly Lake Michigan. Latest loop of visible satellite imagery
shows this surface feature clearly in the cumulus field that wraps
its way across the southern plains and stretches to the Gulf.
Through the late afternoon and evening, diurnally driven isolated
showers and thunder chances remain low, but will persist through
sunset, primarily across central and south central Oklahoma.

As we move through the week, the persistent hot temperatures will be
the challenge, with highs each day ranging in the mid to upper 90s,
to low 100s for some locations. Although dew points will crawl into
the upper 60s/lower 70s across central and eastern Oklahoma into
north Texas, heat indices will hold near or a few degrees above the
observed highs. However, toward the end of the week, Thursday
through Friday, as the high settles directly over the region, with
persistent southerly return flow, daily, heat indices may reach
advisory criteria.

More importantly, with daily highs in the upper 90s/low 100s, the
risk of heat related illnesses will gradually increase, as low`s
each night will only dip into the mid to upper 70s. This lack of
recovery/cooling may impact those most vulnerable to heat related
illnesses, the elderly and infirmed. Be a good neighbor, check on
the elderly in your neighborhoods, make sure they have access to air
conditioning or, at least, a good working fan. Additionally, 21
children have died this year as a result of being left in a hot car.
Please, please, check the backseat when you park. Do not leave
children or pets in parked cars.

Into the weekend, the upper ridge will weaken, with a return to a
more zonal flow pattern. At the same time, long range guidance
suggests a weak short wave will approach and move across the plains
over the weekend, bringing low precipitation chances to the area.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  97  74  99 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  97  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  93  74  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None..DISCUSSION...


&&
&&

$$



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