509
FXUS64 KOUN 101719
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

 - Increasing risk for thunderstorms and some severe weather
   beginning Friday evening and continuing into the weekend.

 - Potential for heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of
   the area on Saturday night into Sunday.

 - Hot and humid today with "cooler" conditions arriving areawide
   by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Primary near-term forecast concern is the return of true summertime
heat this afternoon. Latest NBM initializations are maybe a degree
or so cooler on air temperatures, which is potentially a reflection
of a slightly weaker pressure gradient/southwest winds at the
surface. Practically speaking, this means that some areas that have
yet to see their first 100-degree high temperature of 2025 may
end up waiting a little longer, but it doesn`t change the overall
expectation that today will be hot and humid. Can`t rule out the
chance for showers in southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, but
overall the environment doesn`t look terribly favorable.

Another wave of showers and storms will move southeastward off of
the Raton Mesa/Palmer Divide regions later this evening and tonight.
By 06Z we will have as little as 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE left in
northwest Oklahoma, so the tendency will be for these storms to
decay before or just after they arrive in our area. Lows tonight
will remain in the mid-70s with humid conditions continuing.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

An active couple of days of weather are set to begin tomorrow and
especially tomorrow night. In part this will be driven by a
southwestward displacement of the subtropical ridge into the lower
Colorado River valley while a broad (and fairly strong for this time
of year) area of troughing dominates the central U.S.

Specifically for us, we`ll be watching a frontal zone as it moves
southward across Kansas tomorrow and tomorrow night. The front
will be far enough away to avoid compressional warming and winds
will back enough to avoid downslope warming (at least to the level
we`re having today), so high temperatures will drop a couple of
degrees.

There is a sporadic signal in CAMs for storm development to begin in
northern Oklahoma as early as late afternoon. Despite that, the
better chance for widespread thunderstorms will be after dark as a
cluster develops along a composite outflow boundary and moves
southward. Instability will be sufficient and there is a 25 knot
LLJ, so expect this activity will probably outperform CAM
expectations. Well-mixed boundary layers and dry mid-levels will
dominate northern Oklahoma tomorrow evening allowing for a downburst
potential, with greater atmospheric saturation becoming the general
theme as the threat shifts southward with time.

By Saturday afternoon, some models (such as the NAM) are actually
showing a cutoff low over Oklahoma/Kansas. Between that and a fresh
surge/pooling of tropical moisture (PWATS 1.80-2.00 inches likely),
this will signal a transition back from downburst-laden, outflow-
boundary-driven convection toward tropical convection with heavy
rainfall outputs. The risk for flash flooding will thus increase
through the rest of the weekend, particularly near the frontal
boundary.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

We look hard-pressed to transition into our typical hot and mostly
dry summertime pattern through at least the middle of next week,
with chances for precipitation existing most days. The upper pattern
looks to feature weak quasi-zonal flow, with the subtropical ridge
shunted notably westward. A relative peak in shower/thunderstorm
coverage is expected on Sunday across central and southern
portions of the area, near the remanant/weakening surface front
discussed above. The overall pattern will also support daytime
temperatures near to below normal (in the upper-80s to low-90s)
for mid-July.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions to continue. A few afternoon cu expected across the
area with south winds gusting to near 20kts. Winds will diminish
this evening with developing llj, some sites will have a period of
llws, mainly after midnight. South/southwest winds will increase
quickly Friday morning with most sites gusting to round 25kts.
Also expect to see an increase in mid/high clouds across the west
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  76  93  73 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK        100  75  97  73 /   0   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  98  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  73  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
Ponca City OK     94  74  94  71 /   0   0  20  50
Durant OK         96  76  95  75 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30