Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 221740
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TWO MAIN CONCERNS.
INITIALLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD -RA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 00Z...SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO IFR WITH TSRA. FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
A PROBLEM...WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG PERSISTING NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF KLAW...TO KHBR/KCSM
NORTHEASTWARD. FROM 00Z THROUGH 04Z...AS SFC COOLS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES...EXPECT FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE LOCALLY DENSE...WITH WIDESPREAD 3-4SM VSBYS OVERNIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TO 15Z
SUNDAY...BRINGING BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND REDUCING FOG
AND IFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
22/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING  AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PD. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS...AOB MINIMUMS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS NEAR AND NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW OK INTO NCNTRL
OK. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME AT THESE SITES BY MIDDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD MAINLY AFFECTING TAF SITES
FROM KSPS/KLAW NEWD TO KOKC AND PSBLY KPNC THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN OK. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT WESTERN SITES LATE IN THE PD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO VEER AND ADVECT IN DRIER AIR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO TX TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS
MORNING IN BROAD WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO TX. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE OK
WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EAST TX.

A FAST MOVING S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH PAC ORIGIN AIRMASS BRINGING ONLY SLIGHT COOLING.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  52  59  37 / 100  20  20  10
HOBART OK         61  47  60  35 /  50  20   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  49  64  39 / 100  30   0   0
GAGE OK           67  40  55  29 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  52  58  34 /  30  30  40  20
DURANT OK         59  53  66  40 / 100  80  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.