Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191638
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18z TAFs:

VFR conditions will continue. The diurnal wind cycle will repeate
with slight late afternoon/early evening backing followed by
weakening and gradual veering overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Made slight adjustments to high temperatures and overhauled
afternoon dewpoints today.

DISCUSSION...
It`s a warm start to the day with temperatures one to four degrees
above this time yesterday. We started off the morning with higher
dewpoints as well in central and eastern sections (5 to 7 degree
higher than yesterday), but those have mixed out and become more
in line with yesterday. Morning sounding showed higher moisture
below 900 mb, but lower moisture above that level, so as we
continue to mix out, afternoon dewpoints will likely be somewhat
lower than yesterday and than forecast earlier this morning.
HRRR/RAP show this trend as well. With this in mind and
repopulating dewpoints closer to HRRR values, forecast heat index
values still generally stay just below 105.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus continues to be the heat and possible rain chances later
in the forecast period.

Upper high centered over the region will continue to influence the
area through the rest of the week with hot and dry conditions
persisting. High temperatures are expected to be a degree or two
hotter than the previous day for each day through Friday. High
temperatures on Friday are expected to be the hottest this week with
a good portion of the fa reaching the triple digit mark. Heat index
values at a few locations could also come close to reaching advisory
criteria but most of the area will remain below so will not issue
any headlines for now. Dewpoints are expected to slowly lower a
little bit each afternoon compared to the previous afternoon,
especially in western portions of the fa. The lower dewpoints will
make it harder for heat index values to climb to advisory criteria
levels which is good but unfortunately during this time is when the
actual temperatures are expected to get hotter so overall not much
change or relief through the rest of the week.

Models show the upper ridge becoming less dominate over the region
over the weekend with a weak frontal boundary moving into parts of
the fa. This boundary along with possible disturbances in the flow
will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to parts of the fa
late this weekend into next week. The front, rain, and clouds could
also bring a slight relief to the hot conditions with fewer to no
triple digit temperatures forecasted for Sunday into at least
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        100  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     99  75 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/12


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