Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291749
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AFTER 0600Z, WITH LOW TSRA POPS INCREASING FROM THEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE POPS COULD AFFECT TERMINALS KGAG,
KWWR, AND KCSM IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THOSE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AND SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCE STILL
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
RATHER QUICKLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY... BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP
SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         86  63  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  64  91  69 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           85  61  85  60 /   0  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  62  86  65 /   0  10  10  50
DURANT OK         87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25/67


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