Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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027
FXUS64 KOUN 280417
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW VFR AND MAYBE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY AFFECT FAR WESTERN OK BEFORE 0Z BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW THAT
THEY WOULD AFFECT ANY TAF SITES TO PUT A MENTION IN TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE CONCERN IN THE SHORT RANGE WOULD BE FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH DOWN
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS, THEN BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTING OVER AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
SHEAR PROFILES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD FAVOR THESE STORMS
INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT FOR
LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL ELEVATED BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTHERN STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE RED RIVER
INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING THE SEVERE THREAT FURTHER NORTH AS THE
UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE LIFTS THE
FRONT INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, INCREASING THE SEVERE THREAT NEARLY
UP TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, ANOTHER LONG WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  77  57  74 /   0   0  60  80
HOBART OK         48  77  58  79 /   0  10  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  82  61  81 /   0  10  60  50
GAGE OK           43  72  51  70 /   0  20  70  70
PONCA CITY OK     45  73  54  73 /   0   0  50  70
DURANT OK         55  82  63  77 /   0   0  60  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

30/25/25



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