Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 270326
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1026 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Mid and high clouds will persist over Oklahoma. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Light south to
southeast winds will persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is placed on precipitation chances today and
tonight, mainly ongoing convection and additional chances this
evening.

This afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have cropped up in south
central Oklahoma recently, near the I-35 corridor and south of the
Arbuckles. 18Z surface analysis of Oklahoma Mesonet obs suggest a
weak, but noticable region of surface convergence in this area. Dew
points in the upper 60s/lower 70s has aided in SBCAPE values around
3000 J/Kg focused along this boundary. Model soundings suggest an
uncapped environment, but deep layer shear is paltry, 10 to 20 kts,
given weak mid-level wind fields. Therefore, expect limited severe
potential, and given radar trends over the last hour, convection has
been fairly steady state. Pwats remain hefty given the time of
year, and KTLX rainfall rates are 2 to 4 inches in hour in isolated
locations. Therefore, expect locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to be the only concerns moving forward with this activity through
the afternoon.

Into the evening, a short wave trough is evident on latest water
vapor imagery, lifting east and northeast off the western high
plains of NM/CO this morning and currently crossing the Panhandles.
In response, the diffuse frontal boundary which was the focus for
development last night, has continued to slowly lift northward,
evident by a broad surface trough centered over Kansas, southwest
into the Panhandles. This boundary will be a focusing point for
scattered development this afternoon/evening. Some scattered showers
and isolated thunder has already developed over the southeastern
Texas Panhandle, along the southwestern OK/TX border, with weaker
echos on regional radar through northwestern OKlahoma into Kansas.
Expect this activity to continue through the afternoon off and on.
Additionally, across northwestern Oklahoma into southwestern Kansas,
expect scattered to isolated development to increase at times along
the boundary, given its better proximity to the shortwave. Modest
instability, 1000 to 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 20 to 30 kts deep layer
shear may support one or two strong updrafts in far northwest
Oklahoma. Primary concern would be damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall, similar to yesterday.

For the weekend, with the southern plains wedged between a broad,
lumbering ridge to the east and a trough to the west there will be
low chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunder
near daily. The tough part will be locking down where any boundaries
reside or the influence from subtle short waves traversing the
region. Slight chances for showers and thunder will continue into
and through next week as the synoptic pattern remains, for lack of a
better term, messy. In short, the broad 500mb ridge will continue to
reside over the eastern U.S., leaving the southern plains tapped
into the flow of Gulf moisture. So, overall, somedays you may stay
dry, some days you may catch a shower.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  90  70  91 /  30  20  10  20
Hobart OK         69  91  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  71  92  71  93 /  30  20   0  20
Gage OK           65  90  67  90 /  30  20  20  30
Ponca City OK     69  89  70  90 /  30  20  20  20
Durant OK         71  91  71  92 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09/09


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