Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 292002
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS AGAIN THIS FORECAST ARE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WE`LL BE IN FOR A
LONG OVERDUE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER OF LATE. IN THE WORKS
FOR TODAY...TWO UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS AND A POTENT COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUBTLE BOUNDARIES/WAVES.
IN SHORT...ANOTHER MESSY AND UNCLEAR FORECAST IN WHICH THERE ISN`T
MUCH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SHORT TERM AND HI-RES MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FASTER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND DEPICT LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR STORM
ACTIVITY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE...EXPECT THIS MAY
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS...THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT IS MORE
COMPLEX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A EASTWARD PROPAGATING COMPLEX THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX MAY POSE A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THE ISSUE
OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS THE COMPLEX
INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...ACTING TO ENHANCE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE SOME CONFIDENCE IN LESSER STORM CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL TIMING AND EXTENT
OF FRONTAL CONVECTION.

BY TOMORROW...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. BUT AS COOLER DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST...LEAVING A
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN FROM SUNDAY ON
INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RETROGRADING LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH MIGHT GENERATE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  73  57  76 /  40  20   0   0
HOBART OK         61  74  54  78 /  50  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  76  58  79 /  80  40  10   0
GAGE OK           56  72  51  78 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     59  73  54  76 /  40  10   0   0
DURANT OK         66  75  60  77 /  80  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

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