Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 251518
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1018 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016
Adjusted precipitation chances through 1 PM CDT...made minor
changes to chances in the afternoon.
25/15z surface analysis reveals the frontal boundary continues to
push steadily into north and western Oklahoma this morning,
revealing a beautiful looking airmass behind it. Ahead of the
front, showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to evolve. Some
pockets of heavy rainfall remains, with rate estimates off KVNX
and KFDR of 1 to 2 inches an hour in places. The majority of this
activity is light, a few tenths of an inch an hour. Most short
range guidance hints at light rainfall continuing along and ahead
of the front, with a general consensus from guidance of the front
pushing to and just south of the Red River this afternoon. There
remains some concern the front may slow or stall out across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, with moderate rainfall
rates leading to pockets of heavy rainfall, that could result in
additional minor flooding. This could occur somewhere near the
I-44 corridor into the afternoon and eastward toward I-35.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....
A chaotic mess of ceilings, very low scattered layers, and
visibilities will continue through the early morning across most
of western/central Oklahoma and western north Texas. A large storm
system moving across an area of abundant low-level moisture is the
culprit. Meanwhile, a cold front (now across far northwest
Oklahoma, close to KGAG and KWWR) will sweep quickly southeast
today, reaching approximately KADM to KSPS late this afternoon or
early this evening. The front will help generate new TSRA along it
later this morning and this afternoon/evening. It will also be
followed by northerly winds and fairly rapid improvements in
ceilings--except near the Red River, where lower ceilings and
visibilities in rain/storms will linger well into the evening and
overnight. The general confidence in ceilings prior to frontal
passage is very low, because of the numerous holes in the low
ceilings and many different cloud layers.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are slowly diminishing across
central Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning. A cold front
across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle will move fairly
quickly southeast across Oklahoma this morning, and toward the Red
River this evening. As the front moves southeast this morning,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along it.
Models vary greatly in the amount of coverage they generate.
Considering how moist the atmosphere is ahead of the front, it`s
difficult to believe the models that have only sparse
The front will slow considerably as it approaches the Red River,
and rain chances will therefore linger through Monday there.
Farther north, rain chances will generally end tonight.
The rest of the week appears mainly dry, except for a few small
areas of low chances of rain in far northwest Oklahoma toward the
end of the week.
Temperatures will be relatively cool fro the next couple of days,
then head back up toward the seasonal average about midweek.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 74 57 74 50 / 90 10 10 0
Hobart OK 72 56 74 50 / 90 10 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 76 61 75 54 / 90 40 30 0
Gage OK 72 48 76 49 / 30 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 71 51 74 50 / 90 10 0 0
Durant OK 84 64 77 55 / 80 40 20 0