Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 010353
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE
AFTER 18Z. DETERMINING IF...WHERE...AND WHEN MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH BR...POSSIBLY LIFR WITH FG...WILL DEVELOP
REMAINS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER
18Z. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.

BELIEVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A KHBR-KPNC THROUGH 15Z. PLAN TO KEEP MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...NEAR KOKC...KOUN...KPNC...
KLAW...AND KSPS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR 11-13Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH NEAR CALM
WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED DENSE FOG
..ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING. ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PLACED ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY... SOME LIGHT/NARROW BANDS OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE CONTINUE
TO STREAM S/SW FROM NE INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK H850 FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NE SIDE
OF THE SEWD EXITING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING... SO COMMUTERS ACROSS THE OKC METRO SHOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DROPS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH 7 PM
CDT.

FOR TONIGHT... BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE... WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. RECORD LOWS FOR OKC AND SPS... ARE 53
AND 59 RESPECTIVELY... SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY BROKEN RECORDS
OVERNIGHT. FOR FRI... INTO THE WEEKEND... THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT... THE WRN H500 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... KEEPING THE PLAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN IT AND THE ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY REBOUND AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EVER SLOWLY EASTWARD... WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE UP WIND... AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY RIDGE
SWRD INTO THE PLAINS/OZARKS OUN SUNDAY... WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS ERN OK. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE MOMENT... GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION. A PSUEDO-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE BY
MIDWEEK... BEFORE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE... GFS/ECMWF... FORCE ANOTHER
FRONT SWRD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY... WHICH COULD BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  85  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         62  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           60  88  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         64  83  65  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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