Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 180438
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1038 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017
Light southeast winds will bring surface-level moisture tonight
when low clouds and fog are expected to move northward from Texas.
MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected early Saturday along the Red
River and into central and north central Oklahoma by sunrise.
Conditions will improve during the afternoon, but low clouds are
expected to move northward toward the Red River before midnight
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/
South winds overnight will bring low clouds, some drizzle and fog
to much of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas tonight.
MVFR and IRF conditions are likely before sunrise Saturday. These
conditions will last until midday in many areas before clearing
during the afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/
An upper-level low will drift east across Oklahoma tonight,
while surface flow continues from the south. This low-level moist
flow will likely result in overcast skies, patches of drizzle, and
some fog early Saturday over most of central and southern
Oklahoma, and north Texas. Some clearing should occur in the
afternoon in the west, while the rest of Oklahoma remains mainly
Another storm system will approach the southern Plains by Sunday,
bringing much higher chances of measurable rainfall. Modest
instability should be adequate to support scattered thunderstorms
amid the widespread showers. There may be locally heavy rainfall,
and marginally severe storms Sunday night. The heaviest rainfall,
overall, should be over southeast Okalhoma.
The storm system then moves quickly off to the east, drying out
the southern Plains. There will be minimal effects on temperature,
as there not a significantly colder airmass following this
Models continue to show a tightly-wound surface low pressure
system over the central Plains on Thursday. Assuming this happens
as advertised, that would result in a warm, breezy, and dry day
across Okalhoma and north Texas. Given that it will be late
February, those conditions suggest a substantial risk of
difficult-to-control grass fires.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 49 67 50 / 0 0 10 0
Hobart OK 69 43 69 48 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 72 47 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 73 37 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 71 46 68 50 / 0 0 10 10
Durant OK 70 52 69 54 / 10 10 20 0