Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261710 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Increased high temperatures this afternoon northwest of I-44.


More sun and low level warm air advection should allow for
warmer afternoon temperatures than previously forecast.

It still appears the highest rain chances (30-40%) will remain
over western north Texas this afternoon, though ongoing cloud
cover has limited heating and destabilization so far in western
north Texas. Additional isolated storms may form in western
Oklahoma this afternoon where moisture is increasing and where the
cap may be weak enough for a few storms. Latest visible satellite
imagery hinted that this isolated development may occur near a
Fairview to Weatherford to Hobart line in the next few hours where
cumulus development is most robust.

Products will be updated shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 929 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Removed morning rain chances in northern Oklahoma. Made small
adjustments to sky cover today.

Some storms with locally heavy rainfall may occur between 1 and
9 pm today across western north Texas.

Latest radars detected virtually no rainfall across Oklahoma and
western north Texas as of 925 am CDT. A remnant MCV from a
dissipated complex of thunderstorms was located somewhere
between Lubbock and Abilene Texas.

Believe western north Texas will have the highest chances for
rainfall this afternoon where moisture is deeper (precipitable
water values 1.5-2" which is in the 75th-95th percentile for this
time of year), higher instability (MLCAPE 1000-2200 J/kg) will be
located, and lift should be stronger from the nearby mid level
disturbance/MCV. Isolated to scattered slow moving storms
(generally less than 15 mph towards the southeast) should start
forming in western north Texas once convective temperatures 80-84F
are met. Locally heavy rainfall appears to be the main hazard
with these storms as rainfall rates 2-5"/hour may occur. Severe
potential remains very low due to weak shear (0-6 km 15-25 kt) to
keep storms loosely organized and pulse in nature. Also, weak
lapse rates (mid level lapse rates 6-6.5C/km and low level lapse
rates under 8C/km) should limit hail and wind potential.

Across the rest of the area, still kept afternoon rain chances
around 20% in western Oklahoma, though not confident that rain
will occur in these areas. Overall, think skies will clear and
mainly dry conditions will prevail north of the Red River today.

Products will be updated shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

26/12 TAFs. VFR conditions expected to continue through forecast
period. Expect showers over Kansas to stay northeast of KPNC and
for most of redevelopment of West Texas showers and storms to stay
south of KSPS. Decrease in overall cloud cover with light east
to southeast winds through the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Isolated showers and perhaps a brief weak storm possible through
the morning hours across southern and northern portions of
Oklahoma. With weakening expected next several hours, central
parts of Oklahoma expected to stay dry. Hard to tie showers over
southern Oklahoma to anything other than lingering mid-level moist
layer, with activity over southern Kansas into far northern
Oklahoma an extension of passing wave/speed max moving around
Great Lakes upper low. Stalled frontal boundary extending
east/west just north of I-40 expected to retreat north this
afternoon and should take primary focus of afternoon convection up
into Kansas.

Developing MCV associated with southern Texas Panhandle
dissipating MCS may have impacts on southwest portions of our CWA
this afternoon allowing higher chances of convection. PoPs were
raised a bit across western north Texas but majority of additional
storms should be south of our CWA.

Strong trough still progd to move through northern and Central
Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday, which will support keeping low
PoPs across far northern Oklahoma. Otherwise, overall warming
trend and dry conditions through the week. Next opportunity for
organized rain activity still appears to be Friday into the
weekend with arrival of another strong cold front. Still some run
to run inconsistencies and overall agreement among medium range
models. Therefore, confidence is still somewhat low on areas of
highest chances for rain. Model trends would suggest mainly
northern/northeast parts of Oklahoma.


Oklahoma City OK  87  65  88  71 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         85  66  89  71 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  84  67  89  71 /  30  20  10  10
Gage OK           87  65  89  72 /  20  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     87  64  88  73 /  10  20  10  10
Durant OK         86  66  90  70 /  20  10  10  10




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