Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 230529 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016
23/06Z TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail. Low level jet will yield
LLWS through 15Z at several sites where decoupling will be most
pronounced, mainly KLAW up through KOKC and KPNC. Weak frontal
boundary will affect northwest Oklahoma terminals Sunday allowing
winds to decrease and perhaps become north/northeast.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 922 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
No updates needed this evening.
Forecast looks to be on track, and will let it ride.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
Winds will relax some this evening across central into southwest,
later into the overnight across far west. Will intro LLWS at PNC,
OKC, OUN, and LAW. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to continue.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
Above average temperatures will continue for the next several days.
No signficant changes were made to the previous forecast.
Tonight will not be as cool due slightly stronger surface winds
and a slight increase in surface dewpoints. High level cloud cover
will increase over southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Used a blend
a model guidance lows, mainly in the lower to mid 50s.
Sunday will be similar to today except with more high level cloud
cover and weaker surface winds. Model guidance highs 78 to 86
looked reasonable and were accepted.
Sunday night through Tuesday, dry weather is expected to continue.
A weak mid/upper level disturbance will continue bring high level
clouds to north Texas and southern Oklahoma Sunday night through
Monday evening, but it appears the lack of deep moisture should
prevent any rain from forming. Surface dewpoints will climb into
the 50s and perhaps lower 60s by Tuesday. Temperatures will remain
about 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, rain chances will
increase across the area as a mid/upper level disturbance and cold
front move through the area. Exact timing and evolution of this
system remain uncertain at this time. Increasing moisture,
instability, and shear support the potential for a few strong to
perhaps severe thunderstorms with hail and wind as well as some
locally heavy downpours during this time frame. The highest rain
chances at this time appear to be northeast of a Gage to Waurika
line. Doubt widespread rainfall will occur with this system.
Thursday through next Saturday, dry weather and above average
temperatures are likely with mid/upper level ridging.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 54 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 53 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 57 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 47 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 51 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 59 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 0