Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231728
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK...AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT WILL KEEP
PROB30S IN FOR THE CENTRAL OK TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
RESULT IN A STRONG WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLES COULD
AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OK.
A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WATCH TRENDS. THE CLOUDS MOVING IN
COULD SLOW DOWN MIXING AND KEEP WINDS FROM BEING CONSISTENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING NEAR
A DRYLINE WEST OF THE FA AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL CONT TO
MOVE EAST. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS 35-40KTS
AT WWR/GAG. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
SHOWER OR LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
16-17Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 22-23Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH FOR TEMPO/PREVAILING
GROUP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WWR/GAG AROUND 7Z AND WILL
APPROACH OKC AROUND 12-13Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH ~15Z. ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME AREA. WINDS MAY GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH (WOODWARD AREA) FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60 DEWPOINTS...SO HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH
A WIND AND HAIL RISK.

BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN
QUICKLY...SO BETTER STORM/RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NAM12 DEVELOPS STORMS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN. RATHER WARM 8H
TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CAP HOLDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...BETTER MOISTURE ETC. WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
FIRST STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES AT THIS TIME
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND CHANCE OF TORNADOES. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS BECOME
SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO PERHAPS A COMPLEX OR TWO WITH WIND
AND HAIL THE MAIN RISK. MOST MODELS PUSH THE DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST
OF I-35 BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REMOVE MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT
FINE FUELS/RAINFALL.

MID/UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  62  78  53 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         85  59  80  52 /  20  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  63  83  56 /  10  40  10   0
GAGE OK           85  51  77  49 /  40  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  75  52 /  10  40  20   0
DURANT OK         83  62  79  56 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/03/03


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