Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
000
FXUS64 KOUN 152313
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
613 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The synoptic-scale pattern across the continental U.S. is
characterized by a closed upper-level low across the southwest
U.S. and an upper-level trough across the Great Lakes region. For
the Southern Plains, shortwave troughs lifting from the base of
the upper-level low will result in continued cloud cover/rain
chances and shortwave troughs rotating around the upper-level
trough will result in reinforcing cool air (as we are seeing
today).
Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest
Saturday morning with synoptic-scale ascent overspreading the
area. Widespread showers will develop across north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, which will gradually move to the northeast
during the day Saturday. The uncertainty is the northern extent of
rain as dry air advection will temper the potential for rainfall.
Therefore, the best chance for rainfall will be across the
southern third to half of the area with decreasing chances with
northward extent. It appears be a scenario where many locations
will receive rainfall, but the amounts will be light. Elevated
instability near the Red River will result in the possibility of
embedded thunderstorms.
Abundant cloud cover and continued northerly winds will result
temperatures in the 50s and 60s deg F.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A reinforcing cold front will advance southward on Sunday, which
will result in a continuation of the cool pattern through Monday.
High temperatures for many locations on Monday are likely to only
be in the 50s deg F due to cold air advection. A freeze is likely
across the northern half of Oklahoma Monday morning.
The synoptic-scale pattern will begin to change by the early to
middle part of next week with mid-level height rises across the
Southern Plains and a return to southerly winds. As a result,
warmer weather will return with temperatures likely in the 70s deg
F.
The aforementioned closed-low across the southwest U.S. is forecast
to become an open wave and will advance eastward into the
Southern Plains. This will result in a chance of rain late
Wednesday into Thursday.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Ceilings have improved to VFR this evening. Mid to high clouds
will persist throughout most of the forecast period. Wind speeds
will become light and mostly variable overnight, but generally
expect a northerly component.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 44 64 47 61 / 0 50 10 0
Hobart OK 44 59 45 60 / 0 60 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 48 61 48 65 / 0 80 20 10
Gage OK 37 62 41 61 / 0 30 10 10
Ponca City OK 41 67 45 61 / 0 0 10 0
Durant OK 51 67 52 67 / 0 70 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...03