Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231724
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1124 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Temperatures were lowered for this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers/storms continue to lift northward this
morning. Abundant cloud cover and precipitation will limit
insolation, so opted to lower high temperatures several degrees
for this afternoon. Some locations may have high temperatures only
in the mid to upper 30Fs.

Localized dense fog continues, primarily across parts of west-
central Oklahoma (such as Clinton and Watonga). Trends will have
to monitored for a local extension of the dense fog advisory in
this area. Elsewhere, the advisory will be allowed to expire at
noon.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

AVIATION...
23/12Z TAFs. Winds will remain light, and with near saturation in
the lower levels of the atmosphere, IFR/LIFR conditions expected
to dominate terminal weather this forecast period. Given trends of
high-res model progs tonight, it appears that primary area for
TSRA will stay south and east of terminals. Therefore, we have
opted to remove TSRA Prob/Tempo forecast forecasts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread fog will be seen this morning, with dense fog likely to
continue across much of Oklahoma most of the morning. Some areas
of northern and central Oklahoma may see at least a few hours of
freezing fog. Although this could result in riming of elevated
objects, primarily trees/towers/etc, do not think that there will
be a significant impact to roads. Far south/southeast portions of
the forecast area will be left out of the advisory with
precipitation expected to move northward from Texas and alleviate
widespread/persistent dense fog. Most widespread rain expected
across south-central and southeast parts of Oklahoma today, along
with greatest chances being over these locations again late
tonight and early Saturday. With higher QPF over areas that have
seen upwards of 3 to 5 inches the past several days, coordination
with WPC/WFOs, we will expand the Flood Watch slightly. The
rainfall that is expected tonight into early Saturday is expected
to much heavier than what we will see today as precipitable water
values ramp up with deeper/stronger southerly flow ahead of
incoming storm system.

As upper trough passes over region on Saturday, dryline/pacific cold
front will spread eastward over region and bring an end to rain
chances. Front will also allow very dry air to spread over area, and
with strong and gusty westerly winds across far western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of northern Texas, fire weather conditions will rise
into the elevated to near-critical levels. With recent temps and
precipitation, ERC values have dropped significantly and at this
point do not anticipate an Red Flag warnings Saturday or Sunday.
However, fire danger statements will likely be needed. As far as
severe weather potential ahead of and associated with mentioned
upper storms system, there will be a hail threat late tonight and
Saturday primarily over far south-central and southeast Oklahoma.

Tranquil weather expected until Tuesday/Wednesday of next week as
another longwave trough approaches. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will commence late Monday night and Tuesday associated
with deep theta-e advection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  38  37  58  30 /  70  40  50   0
Hobart OK         38  37  61  29 /  40  20  30   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  39  64  31 /  90  40  50   0
Gage OK           40  33  54  24 /  10  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     41  37  51  25 /  30  30  50   0
Durant OK         45  45  63  35 /  90  80  90   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ014>017-021>023-
     033>047.

     Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ032-041>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ090.

&&

$$

10/04


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