Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 230916
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...DANGEROUS FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED
AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES...SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...
THINKING SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP THE AIR MIXED NEAR THE GROUND JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FORM AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM. THINK
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY ELEVATED AND GENERALLY JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MOST STORMS
SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO ENID LINE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CAPPING MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESSY
PATTERN...BUT BANDS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH TODAY AND ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT SUPPORT MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM 20 TO 35 KT...TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIGNFICANT SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FLOODING
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FORM AND SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE HIGHEST QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. KEPT VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...THINK THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AND MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLOODING
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. BELIEVE THE AIR WILL BE COOL AND
RATHER STABLE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THERE MAY BE A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING
AND  DESTABILIZATION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY FORM...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MEMORIAL DAY...NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY BUT WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR. LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT VERY MOIST...
WARM...AND UNSTABLE...POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE...AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA MAY BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET TO PROMOTE UPWARDS MOTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS WITH MANY MORE DRY HOURS THAN WET ONES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. MID AND
UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
LATE MAY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  73  62 / 100 100  80  20
HOBART OK         73  61  75  58 / 100  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  63  77  62 / 100  90  70  20
GAGE OK           70  58  76  56 / 100  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  63  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
DURANT OK         78  66  73  65 /  60  90 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/17


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