Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 160509
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The August 16-17, 2017 06 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
A line of thunderstorms across the eastern Texas panhandle is
expected to shift eastward and impact KGAG/KWWR early this
morning. Gusty, chaotic winds and reduced visibility are
expected. Additional showers/storms are expected across south
central Oklahoma. This convection may stay south and east of any
TAF sites, so opted not to mention in any TAFs for now.

A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma late
tomorrow afternoon and will slowly shift southeastward through the
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
front across north central into central Oklahoma. Greatest
confidence for thunderstorms is from KPNC to KOKC/KOUN. Gusty
winds and reduced visibility from heavy rainfall are the primary
hazards with any thunderstorms.

Surface winds ahead of the front will be from the south to
southwest with northwesterly winds expected behind it.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 953 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

UPDATE...
Showers and storms in the Seminole/Holdenville areas expected to
slowly diminish and move east next hour or two. Convection over
Texas Panhandle expected to weaken or even dissipate before
reaching western parts of Oklahoma, likewise the storm complex
over southwest Texas. With increasing low level jet and existing
boundaries/moisture, will not completely remove PoPs for the
overnight period, but will lower them from afternoon package.
Lowered low temp forecast across central portions of Oklahoma
where rain-cooled air brought temps down to previous forecast
levels.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The August 16-17, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

AVIATION...
Numerous thunderstorms across central/east-central Oklahoma will
continue to shift east-northeastward this evening. Expect the
convection to be east of all terminals by 00Z.

Additional showers/thunderstorms may affect northwest Oklahoma
late evening/overnight; therefore, will maintain TEMPOs at
KGAG/KWWR. Another area of showers/thunderstorms could affect
southern Oklahoma/adjacent parts of north Texas as well; however,
confidence is too low to mention in TAFs for now. Any impacts
would be primarily at KSPS/KLAW/KOUN.

A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma tomorrow
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
front toward the the end of the TAF period.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and very humid conditions over Oklahoma and western north
Texas will help fuel strong storms this afternoon and evening.
Very heavy rain is expected with the stronger storms, which may
lead to areas of flooding if storms train or slow down
sufficiently. There is not enough confidence in flooding to
warrant a Flood Watch in this case. Persistent cloud cover has
maintained a relatively stable area over southwest Oklahoma and
much of north Texas, so this area will see mainly showers, with
only a few weak thunderstorms. The stronger storms should be
limited to central and north-central Oklahoma this
afternoon/evening.

Over the next several days, a series of mid/upper-level waves will
pass over the region, causing periodic increases/decreases in rain
chances. One of the stronger waves passes overhead tomorrow and
tomorrow night, bringing the highest rain chances to the area,
along with a risk of additional severe storms. This will be
followed by a brief break (lower rain chances) before additional
waves arrive. The more subtle waves are very difficult for models
(and us) to forecast beyond a day or two, so the rain forecast is
fairly "broadbrushed" until the final significant wave moves
through Friday night.

Both of the stronger waves will be associated with surface
fronts, but no major changes in temperatures are expected.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  90  71  91 /  70  10  50  50
Hobart OK         71  92  72  93 /  60  20  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  93  74  95 /  50  30  30  10
Gage OK           65  89  68  91 /  10  10  60  40
Ponca City OK     69  89  68  87 /  60  10  40  40
Durant OK         75  90  74  92 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/06/10



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