Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 161725
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MODIFIED TEMP GRIDS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG I-40 FOR WHERE
MORNING CLOUDINESS IS STARTING TO BREAK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG/RAIN CHANCES. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY.

FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS LIFTED...SO
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION.

A WEAK FRONT HAD STALLED NEAR A HOBART TO SEMINOLE LINE. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 10 AM...AND MAY BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR PONCA CITY. THUS...LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT NEAR THIS LOCATION. SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT...MORE SUN HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE HEATING...THUS RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GENERALLY KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT MID/UPPER FORCING.
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH ANY STORM WOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN A SMALL
AREA LESS THAN AN HOUR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SURFACE OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS COVER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG...SOME
DENSE...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY FORMED BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SUN AND A
GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND AND NEAR OUN/OKC/CSM.

SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BEFORE
STALLING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA WITHIN AN AREA OF WAA.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN SOME GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         92  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           85  65  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  66  89  67 /  10  20  20  30
DURANT OK         88  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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