000
FXUS64 KOUN 131713
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE TREND...

DISCUSSION...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING TEMP TREND AS MONDAY
CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP INTO A BEAUTIFUL DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN N TX AS S/SW
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15
MPH...GUSTING TO 25 ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NRN TX AND SWRN
OK. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS NRN TX AND
SWRN OK COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ELEVATED.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

AVIATION...
13/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS WEEKS FORECAST. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGERS
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND. A LARGER AREA WILL HAVE THE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CONCERN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...ALTHOUGH EVEN THEN...CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF
INTERSTATE-35. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  88  65  81 /   0   0  10  30
HOBART OK         61  89  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  90  67  85 /   0   0  30  30
GAGE OK           61  90  63  88 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     62  89  65  84 /   0   0  10  30
DURANT OK         61  88  66  77 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23/14