Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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498
FXUS64 KOUN 032334
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
TAFS 0400/0424...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OR MOVE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE THE
RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE THE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH WANING INSTABILITY. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY MIDNIGHT WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THEN...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ITS SLOW SPEED MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ITS ARRIVAL
TIME...BUT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS A GOOD
ESTIMATE OF WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
THE SPC DAY 4 TO 8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PROVIDES A GOOD EXPLANATION
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         47  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  51  81 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           44  79  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  76  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         51  78  50  77 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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