Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 101620 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE... SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY IS TRANSPORTING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE FA AND A
DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IS MOVING INTO KANSAS THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE AND/OR BOUNDARY COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR THE
DRIER AIR... SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT... AND ANY
STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD WIN AND
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES... JUST
HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER APPROX THE EASTER HALF OF THE FA WHERE
HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND... NOT AS
STRONG A CAP... AND COULD HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE
DISTURBANCE. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS WHERE THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE OUTFLOW AND CLOUDS HAVE AFFECTED THE WARM UP
SO FAR TODAY. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

AVIATION...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IT WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR OKC AFTER 101300
THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF OKC THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN OK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING
BEFORE NOON. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY AT TIMES FOR MINOR FLOODING..MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 51.
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX MAY PROVIDE WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY. AFTER TODAY, THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES VERY LOW WHILE THE
HEAT INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND DAYS WILL LIKELY
BRING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR ACROSS MOST OF
OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY. EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE A FRONT APPROACH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE
WEST. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERAL EARLY
MORNING EPISODES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MID-WEEK. THE FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH WILL LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MESOSCALE OUTFLOWS WILL GIVE OPPORTUNITY IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR
SOME RAINFALL. MOST OF THIS WOULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  73  98  74 /  50   0   0   0
HOBART OK         98  73 100  74 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           96  71  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  74  98  73 /  90  10   0   0
DURANT OK         95  74  96  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/06


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.