Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161128
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
528 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs:

A band of very light rain or sprinkles may impact airports in
southwest Oklahoma, western north Texas and possibly up into the
OKC/OUN area. This will diminish later this morning. Strong wind
gusts, in some cases near 35 knots, have began to decrease across
the region. Gusts to around 30 knots will remain possible,
especially at HBR/SPS/LAW through much of the morning before
diminishing later today. Lowering stratus will occur this evening,
possible to MVFR/IFR as rain begins in southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas this evening and spreads northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The big story as we move into the weekend is increasing rain chances
with some elevated fire weather.

The weather pattern is becoming more active as a series of
shortwaves set up to make their way across the area. The first of
these has already brought a front across the area, bringing Fridays
maximum temperatures down into the 40s and lower 50s. The cold will
be short-lived, however, as southerly winds quickly return
late Friday evening, bringing back warm air and a surge of moisture.

Isentropic lift combined with this abundance of moisture should
produce significant rain chances for late tonight and early
Saturday. Another cold front will sweep away this moisture Saturday
afternoon with little to no effect on temperatures.

Moisture increases again Sunday and Monday setting us up for another
chance for precipitation. The North American Ensemble shows
precipitable water amounts reaching into the 3rd standard deviation
across southeast Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.

The lifting mechanism here will initially be isentropic lift Sunday
night. As we move into Monday, however, a dryline develops, which
may give some more focused lift supporting thunderstorms. Then as
you move into Tuesday, a front sweeps down, catching up with the
fleeing moisture in southeast Oklahoma. This is where lift will be
the strongest and moisture the most concentrated, so reserved the
highest QPFs and POPs for SE Oklahoma on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, the pattern continues to bring in moisture with
maybe some weak lifting mechanisms, resulting in some low POPs most
days. Friday looks to be the next good chance for significant
precipitation as another front sweeps through the area.

As far as the forecast grids go, I tried to line POPs up with the
relevant mesoscale features as well as NAEFS standard anomalies in
PW. Bumped QPF on Monday and Tuesday up a bit from guidance due to
the high confidence from NAEFS.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  35  59  38 /   0  70  10   0
Hobart OK         45  36  63  38 /   0  70  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  37  64  39 /  10  80  20   0
Gage OK           44  35  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  33  59  35 /   0  50  10   0
Durant OK         52  39  59  39 /  10  80  60   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/14


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