Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 020451
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...BUT AS INSTABILITY WANES...THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IS MORE FITTING...TAPERING TO JUST RAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA. RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD JUST CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOFK...WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. TSRA MAY IMPACT KLNK BY 09Z AND
KOMA BY 10Z. ABOUT A 2-5 HOUR WIND FOR CONVECTION...THEN INSTABILITY
MOVES EAST AND IT SHOULD END AS SHOWERS. SHOULD ALSO SEE MVFR
CEILING DEVELOP. FOG COULD ALSO IMPACT KOMA BEFORE THE RAIN
ARRIVES. WHEN THE REAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD


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