Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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328
FXUS63 KOAX 040449
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AS MOISTURE LOOKS
EXTREMELY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING TSTM CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. MODELS PHASE THIS UPPER LOW
IN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY.
THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 14KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN



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