Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 262310
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIP EVENT FOR TONIGHT. MRNG
UPPR AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED POTENT 130 KT H25 JET ACRS THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WAS DOWNSTREAM OF SHRTWV TROF OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA. THE TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 M H5 HEIGHT
FALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD THIS EVNG THROUGH NEB AS THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROF SHIFTS EWD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK...AND FOR THE MOST PART TIMING /GFS WAS A
TAD TO FAST/ WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND OVER-ALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS NECESSARY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL OVER-SPREAD THE
CWA THIS EVNG WITH THE MAX VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED BETWEEN 00
AND 06Z TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS THIS LIFT WILL BE MOST EFFECTIVE
NEAR THE H7 FRONT WHERE MODERATE MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
RESIDE. OVER-ALL STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH...AND LIFT IS FAIRLY
QUICK. NEVERTHELESS A GOOD 6 HOURS OF LIFT IS EXPECTED...AND WITH
3 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FEEDING INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE WE
SHOULD SEE A BAND OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES. THIS
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN NE NEB FROM AROUND KBVN-KLCG AND NORTHWEST.
GOING ADVRY MAY BE A TAD EARLY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
TIMING OR AERIAL EXTENT. THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS
FOR THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA WHERE THE MID-LEVEL SATURATION EITHER IS
LIMITED IN NATURE...OR DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE EVNG. HERE A
SATURATED LOWER-TROPOSHERE AND LIFT ABOVE THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FZDZ AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS EVNG. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MRNG
WITH SKIES CLEARING FM WEST TO EAST.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO THE WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE THE MID-LVL FLOW BACK OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACRS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF
THE CWA AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS/LOWS IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF WILL
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP AND MOV SWD THRU THE FA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AIR TO START THE NEW WEEK. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS FRONT...BUT STABILITY IS
HIGH AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG FOR SOME -SN...BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY CHILLY TO START AS A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL US. THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST APPEARS
DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN SNOW-COVERED
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN CWA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A LOW WILL CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THIS MAY EJECT EWD INTO THE PLAINS TO END THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OR TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS WE WILL LEAVE DAYS 6-7 DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRECIP EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AT KOFK
BUT MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW AT KOMA/KLNK. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS. SNOW ENDS BY 09-11Z...THEN CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR
BY 16-19Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



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