000
FXUS63 KOAX 142326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AND
60S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE.

SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER AREA TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.
MOST OF THE CONUS WAS DRY AS CAN BE AT 850MB...WITH ABOVE-0C
DEWPOINTS LIMITED TO JUST THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND FAR
SOUTH TX. 850MB LOW AT 12Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH MN/IA/EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL KS/OK
PANHANDLE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WAS AROUND 0 TO -5C IN THE
CONUS...WITH COLDER TEMPS WELL NORTH IN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH AT
19Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO CENTRAL SD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WARM/DRY WEATHER ONE MORE DAY AT LEAST IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA...THEN PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  WARMER
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER AND THUS THINK RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT
STILL THINK VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
TOMORROW...AS CURRENT GRIDS BRING RH DOWN INTO THE 20S.  SOME
MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA.  BELIEVE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY TO OVERCOME BEFORE
00Z SUNDAY...AND HAVE PULLED POPS OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE THEN.  BY
ARUOND 06Z THOUGH...FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 850-700MB INCREASES IN THE
AREA...AND THINK ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE THERE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT.  CERTAINLY DOES APPEAR THAT HIGHEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...AND SOME
PARTS OF OUR CWA MAY SEE VERY LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND MODEL TEMPERATURES
OFF THE DECK...PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY TO START AS RAIN AROUND 00-
03Z...THEN BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY AROUND 06Z...CONTINUING TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA...WHILE SOUTHERN CWA MAY REMAIN AS
ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND THUS SEE LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL. SNOW SHOULD MOSTLY EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z
SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIP IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL AS
850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -4C TO -6C PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  HAVE DECREASED TEMPS A BIT ON SUNDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SKIRT SD/MN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY WILL BEGIN BY SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE WESTERN CWA...OVERSPREADING THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY INTO THE 50S/60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DRIFT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH. GFS IS STILL A BIT FASTER
THAN ECMWF WITH INITIAL WAVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH FASTER ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO PAINTS MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS INITIAL
WAVE...THEN DRIES THINGS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AND HANGS ON TO IT LONGER AS AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS IN OUR NORTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR FASTER GFS...BUT THE MAIN BRUNT OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
RAIN WILL BE THE TYPE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 40S WITH SUNSHINE
OFFSETTING COLD ADVECTION. THEN A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST OR
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 SITES FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT IN SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON SAT SWITCHING THE WINDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING WINDS TO END THE PERIOD.
WE WILL ALSO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TO END THIS
FORECAST...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-089>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-069-079-
     090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...