Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1111 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover, temps and winds for this
afternoon. High previous forecast was on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The region remains in between amplified ridging over the western
states and a trough over the eastern third of the country. A cold
surface high pressure ridge has settled over the forecast area
this morning allowing temperatures to bottom out into the 10-15
degree range across most areas with some single digit readings
across northeast Nebraska. The surface high will continue to slide
southeast through the day allowing return southwesterly flow to
increase with strong warm air advection to our west signaling the
beginning of our Thanksgiving weekend warm- up.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

By early Friday morning, 850mb temps are forecast around +16C over
the region. Temperatures should be able to mix out quite well as
a fast moving surface cold front dives through the area from late
morning through early afternoon. Behind the front, 850mb winds are
near 45-55kts which could mix winds to near advisory criteria.
Have continued to bump up wind speeds from model blends. Post-
frontal temperatures are not expected to fall too drastically,
with lows on Friday night generally in the mid to upper 30s. Upper
level ridge axis to our west will continue to slide east through
the weekend allowing temps to remain above normal with +18C 850mb
temps again on Monday into Tuesday.

A deepening trough will dig across the western states and into
the High Plains region by Tuesday sending a strong cold front into
the Central Plains. This will allow a cold Canadian airmass to
drop into the region. Main precipitation area associated with the
trough appears to remain across the Dakotas with our northern
counties possibly getting brushed with some light QPF.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Expect VFR conditions through the period. Considerable high level
and some SCT mid level clouds will move across the area through
the afternoon. Winds should be somewhat gusty from the south this
afternoon, diminish this evening, then shift to the west or
northwest tonight.




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