000
FXUS63 KOAX 190814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.

MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 20/06Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO GREAT
LAKES REGION. PATCHES OF STRATO CUMULUS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
FLO040. THE THREAT OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OR MOVING ACROSS TAF
SITES SATURDAY MORNING SEEMED PRETTY LOW AND THUS NO MENTION WAS
MADE IN 06Z FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK