000
FXUS63 KOAX 291112
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN HAS BE STAGNANT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN SO HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER OF CONCERN WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. RAP13/HIRES ARW/HIRES NMM ALL ADVERTISE PCPN DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN AXIS OF 850-700MB QG FORCING/STRONG MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT
EXTENDING FM THE NEB PANH TO CNTRL KS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AREA OF LOW COND PRES DEF WHERE 310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE FOCUSED. AGAIN THOUGH...BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
W/SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN DETERMINE IF POPS WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
REST OF THE FCST PD WILL QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MODELS AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
STAGNANT WITH A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST. GIVEN THIS SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST. PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT
THRU TUES REVOLVING AROUND A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECM DROPPING THE BNDRY SOUTH.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL POPS STILL REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
THRU THE EXTENDED PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN SC DECK
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT ALL 3
TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE SC DISSIPATE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...