311
FXUS63 KOAX 180941
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
441 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin will continue to move
eastward. A warm front extends from central Nebraska into Western
South Dakota. Water vapor imagery indicates a short wave trogh
lifting out of the Colorado into the Central Plains.

Isentropic lift of moisture into central and eastern Nebraska and
forcing aloft, due to short wave lifting into the Plains, has
helped develop an extensive area of showers and thunderstorms
across central and eastern Nebraska. HRR model guidance suggests
that this activity will continue over eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa into the afternoon. After 21-22Z the activity will move out
of the area.

Tuesday should be mainly a warm and dry day. Aloft, a vigorous
shortwave trough is forecast to rotate around large upper low
over Alberta and British Columbia. This will drive a frontal
boundary across the OAX CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Most of the energy from the shortwave trough will be over the
Dakotas and it is not clear how far south thunderstorm activity
will develop in eastern Nebraska. At this time, have oipted only
to put thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska and parts of
northwestern Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

After cold front moves across area on Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning, high pressure is forecast to build into Kansas and
Nebraska on Wednesdsay. Dry and seasonable weathe is expected to
continue until Friday afternoon when a deeper longwave trough
swings around the upper low. This will cause another northeast-
southwest orientated front to move eastward across Nebraska and
Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur near the
front through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Ceilings decreased into the 2500 to 4000 foot range during Sunday
evening and even lower ceilings, IFR at least temporarily, are
expected to occur overnight in SHRA and TSRA. Ceilings should lift
to VFR Monday afternoon and precipitation chances should decrease.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller