Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 252037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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