584
FXUS63 KOAX 261741
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
  morning hours across much of the area. A Flood Watch remains
  in effect for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwestern
  Iowa. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have already fallen and
  an additional 1-2 inches is possible this morning.

- Rain chances begin to decrease this afternoon from northwest
  to southeast. A few thunderstorms could linger across portions
  of the area through the early evening hours.

- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid
  90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the
  weekend. Storms return to the northern portions of the area by
  Saturday evening, a few of which could be severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

This morning...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this morning
across the area as an upper-level shortwave trough approaches
the area and interacts with an existing boundary. This has
served as a focus and allowed convection to continue to develop
throughout the evening and into the morning hours. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have fallen across portions of
the area and an additional 1-2 inches are possible through the
morning hours as PW values remain exceptionally high for the
area. The Flood Watch continues through this afternoon as the
possibility for additional flooding issues will persist through
the morning hours.

Today and Tonight...

Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to wane by this
afternoon for much of the area that has received the bulk of the
rainfall as the shortwave begins to move off to the east. That
said, a few lingering storms are possible and any that do
develop during the afternoon hours could become strong. An
isolated severe storm also cannot be ruled out. The primary
concern from these storms would mainly be strong and gusty
winds.

Tomorrow...

The aforementioned systems continue to move away from the area
tomorrow and flow becomes nearly zonal. This will allow
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the area.

Weekend and Beyond...

By Saturday, temperatures will continue to climb into the lower
to mid 90s across the area with heat index values approaching
the upper 90s to around 102 in many locations. By Saturday
evening, a few storms are expected to move back into the
northern parts of the area as a surface trough is forecast to
deepen across central Nebraska serving as a focus for storms to
develop along with the heating of the day. While POPs are not
extremely high at this time, any storms that do develop will be
capable of producing strong winds and severe hail. Parts of the
area are are outlooked for a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather by the SPC.

By the beginning of the work week, rain chances come down again
with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s for highs
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Patchy MVFR ceilings may occasionally lower flight categories
this afternoon. Otherwise, expect a line of storms to develop
along a boundary draped from southwest to northeast across
southeastern NE into western IA. Storms could impact KOMA and
KLNK from 18-00Z before moving off to the southeast. Gusty winds
and heavy rain will be the primary threats. Light winds and
abundant moisture across the region could lead to the
development of some patchy fog over parts of northeast Nebraska
into western Iowa overnight. Expect fog will burn off early
Friday morning with the rising sun. Winds will remain light,
under 12 kts outside of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KG