Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 232036
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES.

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...LOCATED NEAR THE
IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY...REACHING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
00Z MONDAY AND THEN WESTERN ONTARIO BY 00Z TUESDAY.

CLOSER TO HOME...THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING TODAY WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO 12Z YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS DOWN TO 1.78
INCHES...K INDEX WAS 36 AND A WEAK CAP HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 500 MB.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK 700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS THIS
FEATURE GETS INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS GOING SINCE MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS...SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PCPN. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ANYTHING LEFT OVER AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BUT THEN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN THE AFTERNOON...STORMS COULD FORM...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN OUR AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ML CAPE VALUES REACING 2000-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXACT LOCATION OF THAT FRONT WILL BE KEY. FOR NOW...KEPT HIGHEST
POPS OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TSTM CHANCES START RAMPING UP MONDAY AND EVEN MORE MONDAY NIGHT
AS WE GET INTO MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT OCCURS NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 80S NORTH AND 90S
SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH
COOLER WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW WIDESPREAD PCPN IS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OR
POSSIBLY DOWN ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND GIVE US PCPN CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. CHANCES SEEM HIGHEST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BUT
THE 12Z MODELS WERE GENERALLY SLOWER (EXCEPT THE GFS...WHICH WAS
NOT PREFERRED) AND HELD ONTO POPS A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS (NOW HAVE POPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT).

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE
WEEK (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY)...THEN SOME RECOVERY CLOSER TO
NORMAL IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND EXITING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL HANG
AROUND IN KOFK AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEGINNING OF TAF
CYCLE. THOSE CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25KT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL TRIGGERED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR
POTENTIAL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



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