Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
120 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE AREA TO RADIATE OUT
WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED...MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE RIVER
VALLEYS.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. TODAY SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO AROUND 70 AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT NORTH FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 06Z/WED. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS KANSAS
BUT WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR ANYTHING THAT
POSSIBLY DRIFTS NORTH.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALLOWING A CONTINUING WARMING TREND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AN 850MB WARM FRONT SO WILL COVER WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANYTHING DRIFTING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING 20+C
850MB TEMPS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD APPROACH THE
MID 80S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S QUITE POSSIBLE. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT OFF BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT...LINGERING PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.
COMPLICATING THIS SITUATION WILL BE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FROM THE
REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THIS MOISTURE IN KANSAS...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER DOES BRING THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA JUST IN TIME TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
REGARDS TO BOTH TIMING AND POPS...ENDING PCPN BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH GRADUAL COOLING TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST DRAGS
COOLER TEMPS DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY WED MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL MOIST ADV INTO ERN NEB VIA LLVL JET.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON KOFK/KOMA WHERE COMBINATION OF
SKC/LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR VSBYS TO
DROP INTO LIFR TERRITORY BTWN 09Z-14Z. AS FOR KLNK...SUSPECT THAT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIMIT VSBYS FROM
GOING BELOW MVFR CAT BTWN 09Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN AT ALL
TERMINALS REMAINDER OF FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE



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