Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER


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