Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 101738
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Main concerns are morning fog along with chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

Visibilities across south central Nebraska continue to drop this
morning with some locations reporting a quarter mile. Will
continue to watch any eastward progression this morning.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave trough dropping
southeast into western Minnesota this morning with associated
surface low pressure currently moving across the Mississippi river
into northwest Wisconsin. A cold front extended southeast from this
low and has been slowly drifting south through our northern counties
overnight. The front is forecast to continue slowly sagging south
across the forecast area today. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level impulse
currently over eastern Colorado is forecast to slide southeast
and into our forecast area this evening. Latest several runs of
the CAM`s indicate some pcpn spreading into the forecast area as
early as this afternoon near the boundary and dropping south
through the evening as the mid-level impulse approaches the
region.

High pressure builds overhead Friday with continued cooler than
normal temperatures and dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Return flow develops to our west by Saturday morning with best
isentropic upglide remaining across central Nebraska. Some of the
pcpn could move into our far western counties through the day but
will most likely just give the area increasing cloud cover.

Medium range models continue to diverge early next week in regards
to pcpn chances. Model blends indicate hit and miss chances of pcpn
but overall a continued cool pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

VFR conditions are indicated through the TAF cycle. Ceilings
should remain above 5000ft at all sites, but the possible
exception could be at KLNK if it is affected by showers/storms in
the late afternoon/early evening. Current forecast primarily keeps
showers/isolated storms south of KLNK, thus no mention in the TAF.
Also kept visibility unrestricted at all sites, but with light
winds, cannot rule out brief MVFR visibility at all sites close
to dawn. In short, the TAF set reflects the optimistic outcome
projected by the model blend, but other less optimistic scenarios
are possible.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mayes



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