Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140808
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SATL IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROF
SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WITH POTENT VORT MAX JUST EAST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION. UPSTREAM THEN...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE WRN CONUS/WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS STATES. OTHERWISE AREA OF -SN HAS
FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SWRN IA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF THOUGH BY MID MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MEAN TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
THRU THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN COMING WED/WED NIGHT
WHEN NEXT PAC NW SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH. DEEP TROF ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TEMP
SWING OVER THE REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...AND AT THIS POINT COLD
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO HANG IN TIGHT AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT. COLD THEN
TODAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 40S. FURTHERMORE...
GUSTY NW WINDS/COLD WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ENSURE LOUSY CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY. AS FOR HIGHS TUES/WED...MODERATE REBOUND ADVERTISED BUT
STILL JUST BELOW NORM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WED AFTN/NIGHT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ADVERTISING DEEP LYR QG FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE AT TIME
OF FROPA. PCPN TYPE INITIALLY RA...THEN POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING WHEN BRUNT OF CAA ARRIVES. FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THRU FRIDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS THE
REGION. SAT NIGHT/SUN...ECM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER SRN
NEB/ERN KS IN RELATION TO 295K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEF. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED WITH SMALL POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND ON TAP THRU THE EXTENDED PD WITH LOW 70S
ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP CIGS TO NEAR FL010 AND VSBYS BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
IN THE KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. THAT
PRECIPITATION AND CIGS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA NEAR AND
AFTER 06Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 08Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
35KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THEN DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO
25KT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN



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