Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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915
FXUS63 KOAX 091731
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1131 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

A short-wave trough and associated mid and upper-level wind maxima
over the upper Midwest early this morning will translate southeast
toward the southern Appalachians, ahead of another disturbance
dropping south through Ontario. Meanwhile, a reinforcing surge of
continental-polar air will advance from the upper Great Lakes into
mid-MS/lower-OH Valleys today with the western extent of this
colder air glancing our area. Low-cloud IR satellite data indicate
a shield of stratus linked to this cold-air surge with at least
scattered clouds anticipated later today. Afternoon temperatures
should range from the lower to mid 30s along and east of the MO
River to near 40 across our western counties.

Tonight into Sunday night, building mid-level heights coupled with
an increasingly zonal low-level wind component will favor warmer
temperatures with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 40s east to
mid 50s west.

On Monday, a short-wave trough will amplify while tracking from
the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley. This disturbance will
be attended by a cold front which will advance south through the
mid-MO Valley, the timing of which varies from model to model. The
timing of the frontal passage will have implications on the high
temperatures, with afternoon readings likely falling behind the
front. Deep-layer subsidence and steep low-level lapse rates
within the post-frontal air mass will be conducive to windy
conditions which could last through Monday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Prominent troughing over eastern North America early next week
will persist through much of the work week before we see a
potential transition to a more zonal mid-level flow regime by next
weekend. Within this broader-scale pattern, a short-wave trough
is forecast to track through the region on Wednesday ahead of
another perturbation which could glance the mid-MO Valley on
Thursday. Similar to recent systems, these disturbances will have
little moisture to work with, so measurable precipitation chances
will remain negligible through the long-term period. Tuesday and
Thursday could see cooler afternoon highs, but in general, the
forecast is for above-normal warmth.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Vis satl imagery was showing a very narrow band of MVFR cigs
gradually dissipating over the region. Thus have limited TEMPO
groups for KOMA/KOFK to one hour. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DEE



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