Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251736
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Cluster of convection that moved out of northeast KS early this
morning continues to move through western Iowa, and may still be
producing wind gusts to 40 and some pea sized hail. Meanwhile, the
convection moving through north central Nebraska is already moving
into our area in northeast NE. This trails west southwest along
the Interstate 80 corridor all the way to northeast CO. High-res
convection allowing models (CAMs) all suggest that we`ll see
widespread showers and thunderstorms early this morning, but then
push this out of the area by noontime. thus have adjusted morning
pops to reflect this trend. Severe threat seems low this morning.

For the afternoon, am thinking it may be another dry day as no
significant shortwave is showing up on water vapor moving out of
the Rockies. CAMs suggest a dry afternoon as well, although convection
may try to fire along the weak surface trough in north central NE
by 21z, which could begin to move into northeast NE by 00z.

High res ARW/NMM models suggest storm chances could continue in
northeast NE this evening, and also a small chance in extreme
southeast NE and southwest IA. the surface trough does move into
northeast NE by midnight and beyond. Additional storms could
develop along/south of I80 midnight and beyond on the nose of the
low level jet. Any storms that develop this evening or overnight
would have a slight risk of becoming severe.

Thursday could be an active weather day even though the upper
trough is still spinning across the Rockies. The surface trough
takes up residence across our area, extending east northeast from
the lee cyclone that persists across the front range of Colorado.
Storm chances increase through the afternoon and may become
focused along the frontal boundary, with the potential for heavy
rain with training of storms along and south of the I80 corridor
by Thursday afternoon and night. Severe storms seem likely
Thursday with the entire region in a slight risk of severe
weather, and even an enhanced risk of storms southwest of Lincoln.

The stalled frontal boundary appears to get pushed northward on
Friday as the upper trough begins to move onto the plains. Storm
chances remain likely Friday into Friday night, with a continued
marginal risk of severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Storm chances continue Saturday across the region as the upper
trough finally begins to transition northeast and out of the area.
Believe Saturday night and Sunday morning should be mostly dry as
we are in between systems. We may begin to see the influence of
the next wave coming out of a mean southwestern US trough by
Sunday afternoon through Monday, with storm chances again in the
forecast through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday morning, outside of
any isolated thunderstorms that manage to pop up. That chance is
slim so was not mentioned in forecasts, but an unstable atmosphere
suggests hit-and-miss storms could fire late this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise a general south to southwest flow at or below
12kt can be expected with scattered to broken clouds between FL050
and Fl120.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Dergan


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