Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281729
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE
VOTE LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS
IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET...THUS
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN KAUH AND KYKN. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY 250 J/KG OF CAPE ARE WITHIN THE
AREA...AND 850 LIFTED INDICES ARE NEUTRAL. THUS...MOSTLY JUST
SHOWERS...BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULDN`T BE RULED OUT.
VARIOUS MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS PREVIOUSLY...AND WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WELL BEFORE NOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY. OTHERWISE...IT`S ANOTHER DAY VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

A WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT UNDERNEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE PESKY CLOSED LOW OVER US
NOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.

STATUS QUO ON MONDAY AS PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GIVES US ONE
MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AS THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE
COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY POPS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS A
KYKN TO KBIE LINE.

THE MOIST AXIS AND LEAD TROUGH DO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 70S...BUT COULD STILL REACH UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA. FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE RAIN
UNTIL VERY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED MOIST AXIS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
THEN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THUS WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH...WHILE
THE GFS IS DEEPER AND THUS HOLDS ONTO PRECIP EVEN WELL INTO
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUCH THAT HIGHS FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW MID
CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. SOME OF THESE MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THEY SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES. KOFK COULD SEE ONE OF THESE BUT IT IS
AND ISOLATED CHANCE AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN



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