Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 141815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
115 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The primary forecast problems are in regards to cloud cover today
into Saturday and then the chance for light rain drizzle from
tonight through Saturday morning.

Large scale pattern at 500 mb features a trough off the west
coast and weak ridging over the Rockies. We should generally be in
southwest mid level flow the next few days. At the surface, high
pressure was off to the east and our area was in southerly low
level flow. Low clouds, fog and some drizzle were common farther
south over Kansas and Oklahoma. Increased sky cover for today and
cut back temperatures a little. Clouds may mix out/decrease some
this afternoon but no overly optimistic about that.

Nevertheless, the clouds will increase and become widespread
tonight. Cloud depth appears to definitely be deep enough for
drizzle, and may get deep enough for some measurable light rain
late tonight and into Saturday. Will be a little more optimistic
on temperatures for Saturday, with highs mainly in the mid 70s to
the lower 80s. Dry weather is expected for Saturday night and
Sunday with highs Sunday in the upper 70s north to lower 80s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The trough over the western United States will move eastward into
the nations mid section early next week. That should help drive a
cold front southeast through the local area. Precipitation chances
seem quite low though through Wednesday morning.

There are some model timing differences early next week that will
affect the forecast. The 00Z GFS was generally slower with the
development of a trough from the Great Lakes to the lower
Mississippi Valley by late week, and wetter than the 00Z ECWMF.
Have included some mention of showers, although not as high as
what the GFS would suggest.

Monday looks like our warmest day, highs mainly in the 80s, then
highs should slowly get cooler through Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Somewhat difficult fcst to contend with at all terminals with
latest TAF issuance. Appears from latest model guidance that llvl
moisture will remain in place thru the fcst pd at KOMA/KLNK with
IFR or less conditions prevailing. As for KOFK...believe llvl
moisture will eventually push in sometime twd 09z Sat morning with
IFR or less conditions prevailing the remainder of the fcst pd.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...DEE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.