Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
492
FXUS63 KOAX 251143
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
643 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Early morning water vapor imagery indicated that deep slow moving
mid-level cyclone was located over northeast OK. Short term models
are in good agreement this morning in taking this low across MO
over the next 24 hours. Latest regional radar mosaic indicates
that rainfall early this morning has become spotty in nature, but
we are expecting intensity and coverage to increase again this
morning as next lobe of DPVA works northeast into the southeast
CWA. Steady rainfall should continue through the morning over
southeast NEb/western Iowa with decreasing coverage expected this
afternoon, becoming sprinkles this evening and mainly dry after
midnight. We expect little change in temperatures today with the
clouds and rainfall in the area with highs in the mid 40s most
locations.

The 07Z objective surface analysis indicates that the ridge axis
extends from western MN into western NEb. This is expected to
slowly develop east tonight with the low-level flow becoming east
and then eventually southeast into Sunday as the mid-level
shortwave ridge, currently over the high Plains this morning,
crosses the area. This is expected to keep the widespread low
clouds across the area through the day on Sunday, which again will
limit highs. If some clearing does make it into the northwest CWA
tonight we may see some fog develop, but we will anticipate the
widespread low clouds to continue and limit the flog threat.

Upstream from the previously mentioned shortwave ridge is another
trough moving into central and southern CA this morning. Latest
guidance indicates that this system will generally go south of our
area across KS/MO on Sunday night into Monday, but we will
maintain some low chance pops along the KS/MO border for some
showers associated with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

We may finally see some sunshine on Tuesday in the wake of the
Monday system, but this is expected to be short-lived as the next
large-scale trough shifts into the Plains. Models continue to
struggle with the evolution of this system. The models appear to
be struggling with how to handle additional energy moving into the
western US by the end of the week. The EC/GEM would indicate that
the mid week system would bring another good chance of rainfall to
the region while the GFS is indicating a more southern/slower
track to the system with the upstream energy entering the western
US not diving into the southwest like the EC/GEM indicate.
Analysis of various ensemble progs adds little forecaster
confidence to any particular solution. Thus we will maintain the
chance of rainfall from mainly Wed into Thu and wait for better
consistency before increasing/decreasing the chances for rainfall
during this time frame. If the EC/GEM prove correct our highs for
the time period are to warm, and if the GFS verifies we are to
cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in rain and fog are expected to prevail
through most of the period as weather system over southwest
Missouri tracks toward central Illinois. Gusty north winds also
expected through at least 18Z before diminishing in the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Fobert



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.