Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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085
FXUS63 KOAX 151007
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A short-wave trough from the northern Inter-mountain region into
Great Basin early this morning will advance east into the northern
and central Plains later today into tonight, where it will phase
with a higher-latitude system progressing along the U.S.-Canadian
border. In the low levels, 08z mesoanalysis placed a weak surface
low near Concordia, KS with an associated warm front stretching
east-northeast through southwest Iowa. Light winds and higher
moisture content along and to the immediate north of that
boundary have contributed to patchy fog early this morning over
far eastern NE and southwest IA. The surface low is forecast to
track east into northwest MO by mid morning with winds across the
area switching to northwest with it`s passage to the southeast.
The patchy fog will likely linger awhile after sunrise before
dissipating.

Meanwhile, a strong cold front stretching from northwest MN to
central MT as of 08z will advance south today, reaching northeast
NE this afternoon. While a large plume of mountain-wave-induced
cirrus will limit daytime heating ahead of the front, temperatures
should warm into the 40s south of I-80 with mid to upper 30s to
the north. The best chance for measurable precipitation will
reside along the SD border this afternoon where low-level frontal
uplift will be augmented by deeper-layer forcing for ascent
associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough.

Winds will strengthen markedly from the northwest with the
passage of the front tonight, ushering a continental-polar air
mass into the region. Lows tonight will dip into the single digits
above zero across the northern half of the area with generally 10
to 15 above in the south. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 20s
to lower 30s.

Friday night into Saturday, a fast-moving short-wave trough will
track through the mid-MO Valley in tandem with a weak surface
front. Highs on Saturday will warm into the upper 30s north with
upper 40s south with gusty northwest winds developing during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Developing low pressure to our north on Sunday will yield warm and
breezy conditions with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Sunday
night into Monday, a cold front will advance southeast through the
area, ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Interior
West. Increasing low-level heat and moisture fluxes ahead of the
front will aid in the development of showery precipitation late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Warm-sector precipitation type
will be rain showers with some freezing rain possible in a
transition zone and light snow in the north. Precipitation should
gradually transition to all snow as the cold air deepens within the
post-frontal environment. Highs on Monday will be dictated by how
quickly the front moves south with the current forecast indicating
readings ranging from 20-25 north to around 50 in far southeast NE
and southwest IA.

The western U.S. trough mentioned above will begin to shift east
into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday when we will indicate
some potential for light snow. Temperatures will likely remain
below normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Expect considerable mid or high level clouds into Thursday
morning along with some fog. Visibilities as of 11 pm local time
were mainly in the 5 to 10 mile range with a few locations down to
near 2.5 miles. Expect that toward morning we could see some IFR
visibilities to 3 miles or less at KOMA and KLNK. North winds will
increase Thursday, which should cause the fog to diminish. Winds
increase more from the north/northwest in the afternoon as colder
air pushes in. There should also be some MVFR ceilings, mainly in
the late afternoon and evening.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Miller



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