Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162300
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEMS WITH ONE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR EAST. CONVECTION COULD STILL DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM...WITHIN A SLIGHTLY AGITATED CU FIELD BETWEEN KBVN...KONL
AND KYKN...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. ANY ANYTHING INDEED
DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WOULD PROBABLY DIMINISH/END BY
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD HOLD IT TOGETHER ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE WEE HOURS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY PLACES OVERNIGHT.
MET/MAV/LAV GUIDANCE ALL INDICATES FOG WILL REDEVELOP BY 06Z...AND
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY 09-11Z...THEN LIFTING/BURNING OFF BY
14-15Z. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE GRIDS...AND MAY HAVE
TO EVENTUALLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE INCLUDE
ALL OF WESTERN IOWA...THE THE PLATTE AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE...BUT THE
LINGERING VERY SUBTLE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING COULD BE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH PEAK HEATING TOMORROW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CONVECTION
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE MONDAY...AND MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE
AREA. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER...AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S
AGAIN. COULD SEE A NOCTURNAL CHANCE OF STORMS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING.
ISOLD TSRA COULD AFFECT KOFK FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR
NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT TO KOMA OR KLNK.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
09Z. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/BREAK UP BY MID MORNING SUNDAY
LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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