Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 282359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
559 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Powerful stacked low pressure system centered this afternoon over
southeast North Dakota will begin to slowly move southeast
overnight dragging colder air into our region along with a small
chance for light pcpn in our far northern counties. In addition, a
fairly strong pressure gradient behind the system and favorable
mixing with unidirectional northwest flow will create blustery
conditions for the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation type
will be a mix of rain and snow initially, with a change over to
all rain Tuesday afternoon, before mixing again and finally
changing over to all snow late Tuesday night. The far southern
edge of the precipitation will inch southward into Wednesday but
should remain north of Highway 30. Precipitation amounts look
light with total QPF only a couple hundredths of an inch which
would amount to less than a half inch of snow near the SD/NE

Cold air advection will continue through mid to late week with
highs Wed and Thu only in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The upper low finally begins to move out of the region Thursday
with another possible push of cold air advection which the models
have yet to agree upon. In any case, a 1030 mb high will build
overhead for Friday into Saturday. Models continue to diverge on
strength of an incoming upper level trough through the weekend
with the EC much more aggressive.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A storm system over the Dakotas will affect the TAF sites through
Tuesday. A belt of stronger 35 to 40kt winds aloft will rotate
into northeast tonight and also Tuesday. Tonight, KOFK will be on
the fringe of the stronger surface winds and should generally be
in the 9-13kt range. May need to include LLWS with the next
forecast issuance as LLWS increase somewhat. Surface winds at
KOMA and KLNK should be around 5-10kts. Tuesday, these stronger
winds will mix down after 15Z at 10 to 20kts and gusty.

MVFR Cigs are north of the TAFs and are forecast to remain there
tonight with variable mid and high clouds FL070-250. With the
surge of stronger winds Tuesday morning and afternoon MVFR cigs could
rotate southward along with some sprinkles/flurries.




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