Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 262000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CHANCE OF TSRA/COVERAGE/PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY
AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

HIGH BASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WERE ENOUGH TO GENERATE -SHRA/-TSRA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE
SHOULD GENERALLY END BY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURED WINDS FROM 40-80 KNOTS AT 300 MB
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THEN CURVING
DOWN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB PATTERN WAS
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
BORDER OF CO/NM/TX/OK/KS. ENERGY WAS ROTATING UP AROUND THAT
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURGE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW THAT
WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS AFTN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN/THURSDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER SD WILL DROP SEWD INTO
THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND
315K AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA
AND TSRA FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT ZERO BUT IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTN EITHER...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN OTHER
MODELS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE
THAN THE SEVERE THREAT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.50 TO
2.00 INCH RANGE WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM NERN NE
INTO WRN IA. PCPN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. PATTERN AT 500 MB BY 00Z SUNDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THAT RIDGE WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. DID GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

JUST ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE UPPER IMPULSE RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES DOWN PARTS
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SO WIDELY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME THAT
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF RAIN TO TAFS. IF COVERAGE WOULD
INCREASE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST. THEN NEXT UPPER IMPULSE ARRIVES
AFTER 10Z AND HAVE PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT KOMA AND KOFK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEIER



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