000
FXUS63 KOAX 121710
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

This mornings water vapor imagery showed a deep longwave trof
over the Pac NW with strong moisture flow on the front side into
the northern Plains. At the surface...a low pressure trof down
along the northern/central high Plains.

Models are in good agreement pcpn will develop along a stalled
surface boundary which is progged to extend from central WI to
western KS morning Friday. However...with brunt of mid layer QG
forcing focused to the northeast through the day...bulk of rainfall
is likely to fall over northern IA. Thus, will focus POPs over
eastern portions of the CWA.

With upper flow oriented SW-NE...models depict the boundary slightly
meandering over the CWA through at least Friday night/Saturday
afternoon, allowing for persistent forcing via mid layer ageostrophic
ascent. Strong moisture advection in the meantime will equate to PWS
around 1.5" or so pooling over the southern CWA. Both the NAM/GFS
show axis of max omega over the southern CWA Saturday night. Thus
potential for highest accumulations should generally be south of I-
80 with up to an inch possible by Sunday morning. In addition to
this, the combination of deep layer shear along with strong
instability would indicate the possibility for severe storm
development late afternoon Saturday over the southern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

GFS/ECM are in agreement near zonal flow will prevail through the
extended periods with dry conditions prevailing with near normal
highs in the mid/upper 60s, and slightly above overnight lows in the
mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

An IFR stratus deck which has affected KOMA this morning is
quickly dissipating with the onset of deeper boundary-layer
mixing. Expect prevailing VFR conditions this afternoon with gusty
south winds. Tonight, a cool front will advance southeast through
the area with winds switching to north-northeast. Model guidance
suggests that MVFR ceilings will become increasingly probable
behind the front Friday morning from KOMA to KLNK. Some light
showery precipitation is possible at that time as well.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead