653
FXUS63 KOAX 061732
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1232 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is favored for most of the area today, with highs
  in the mid to upper 80s.

- Daily storm chances (20-40%) return tonight and persist
  through the week. Repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to
  localized flooding concerns.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday across
  eastern NE and Tuesday across southeast NE and southwest IA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

Calm conditions are present this morning as a humid air mass is in
place over the area. Fog development will be possible this morning,
though model soundings indicate gusty winds just above the surface,
likely keeping any fog to patchy or wind-protected areas. As of 2:30
AM, MRMS composite reflectivity displays an MCS tracking east-
southeast across south-central SD. This system is expected to weaken
as it moves towards northeast NE later this morning, gradually
losing access to instability. Still, a few light showers may
accompany its remnants across extreme northeast NE by late morning
into early afternoon.

Pleasant weather is expected this afternoon as weak surface high
pressure settles into the region. Highs will climb into the mid to
upper 80s under mostly clear skies, though CAM guidance hints at the
possibility of a few diurnally driven showers across southeast NE
and southwest IA, where weak surface convergence is present.
However, the weak forcing combined with subsidence will likely
suppress much of the activity, keeping PoPs below 20% with just a
few passing low to mid-level clouds.

A broad ridge continues to build over the southwestern CONUS, with a
disturbance riding its periphery over the northern Rockies. This
feature will support surface cyclogenesis over west-central NE,
where thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
evening. These storms may organize into another MCS that drifts
toward the area and weakens overnight. Light precipitation remains
possible early Monday morning as the decaying complex pushes
through, with PoPs ranging from 20-40%. Clearing skies should
follow, allowing highs on Monday to reach the 80s to low 90s.

Another rounds of storms may take shape late Monday as lee troughing
develops over the central and northern Plains. The exact evolution
remains uncertain due to questions surrounding placement of outflow
boundaries and clearing of convective debris from earlier convection
and whether another MCS will form and track into the region. Still,
sufficient destabilization (MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg) combined
with improved deep-layer shear (30-35 kts) may support a few strong
to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary
hazards, though a brief tornado can`t be ruled out across northeast
NE where model hodographs exhibit some low-level curvature. The SPC
currently includes much of eastern NE and west-central IA in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) just to our west.

Long Term (Tuesday and Beyond)

The upper-level pattern through the remainder of the work week will
continue to feature a ridge over the southwestern CONUS and broad
troughing over the northeast, placing our region in predominantly
zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. This setup will allow for a
series of shortwave disturbances to round the ridge and move into
the area, resulting in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
(PoPs 20-40%). However, confidence in the timing and placement of
these storms remains low, as they will be influenced by the
evolution of preceding convection. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal averages through midweek, with highs generally in the upper
80s to low 90s.

Periodic strong to severe storms will be possible throughout the
week. The first of which is expected Tuesday along a surface trough,
supported by moderate instability but limited shear. The SPC
currently includes southeast NE and southwest IA in a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Tuesday. While no day
throughout the remainder of the week remains a clear stand out for
severe weather, GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based machine learning
guidance suggests a 5-10% probability for severe weather in the area
through the period. In addition, repeated rounds of rainfall may
lead to localized flooding concerns.

By the end of the work week and into the weekend, long range
guidance indicated the potential for a stronger disturbance to push
into the northern Plains. This features may bring additional
precipitation chances and a cool down, with highs falling into the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A deck of MVFR-level clouds are in place this afternoon and are
thickest at KOMA, with a line of clearing to SCT or FEW coming
in from the north that is slated to arrive around 19z. Shower
and storm chances for the aviation forecast have been disrupted
by a persistent storm cluster across central Nebraska, what is
expected to continue pushing south-southeast and may clip KOFK
and KLNK late this afternoon/early evening. From there VFR
conditions are expected to win out overnight, with a few patches
of fog/low ceilings being possible in the KOMA/KLNK vicinity if
the overnight storms do not pan out. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds are expected to fall into place by sunrise tomorrow
morning, and last into the early afternoon at less than 15 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen