000
FXUS63 KOAX 041806
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL JET PATTERN
WITH ONE JET DIVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO MEXICO...A BRANCH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER JET FROM OREGON INTO IDAHO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...A MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROF OVER NEW MEXICO AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE H85 THERMAL GRADIENT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
IOWA WITH A 40KT H85 JET AT KOMA. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
THE AREA OF SNOW THAT WAS OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA IN THE EVENING
HAD PUSHED INTO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SOME LOCATIONS AROUND
WATERLOO IOWA PICKED UP AN INCH OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW. LOCALLY...SKIES
WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

TODAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED...WITH MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER NORTHEAST WINDS
TO THE NORTH. MIXING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE...THUS HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE
TROF TRACKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...WITH A SECOND
PIECE OF ENERGY TRAILING AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TRACKING INTO
COLORADO AND ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH THE LEADING WAVE.

THE RESULT IS THAT THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AS THE TWO SYSTEMS TRY TO PHASE. THE
FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LIFT TODAY. WE DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST LIFT
THROUGH 00Z IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS JET LEVEL SUPPORT WITH
ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
APPROACHING JET STREAK FROM WYOMING. THIS SHOULD HELP THICKEN
CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE. COULD SEE SOME ECHOES ALOFT OR A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET/SNOW FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST FROM COLORADO. OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THIS BAND SPREADS EAST AND HAVE
HIGHEST...CHC POPS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...THEY STILL VARY REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT
APPEARS SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING...ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS ARE DRIER AND SOME WETTER. THE TREND FOR ANYTHING HEAVIER
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS A
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES...WILL WANT TO KEEP UP
WITH HOW THINGS ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE H85 FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FALLS CITY
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. COOL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THURSDAY SHOULD HELP MIX OUT THE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 FOR
WESTERN IOWA...BUT AROUND 50 TOWARD COLUMBUS AND BEATRICE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...THEN A RAIN SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AIR BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF
ON PRECIPITATION MENTION NEXT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY DURING THE TAF CYCLE BUT
WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING TURNING SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE. VISIBILITIES MAY COME DOWN AS WELL. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY PCPN AT THE TAF SITES AS CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN